The Market for Expendable Launch Vehicles Product Code #F621 A Special Focused Market Segment Analysis by: Space Systems Forecast - Launch Vehicles & Manned Platforms Analysis 1 The Market for Expendable Launch Vehicles 2010 - 2019 Table of Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................................2 Introduction................................................................................................................................................................2 Trends..........................................................................................................................................................................3 Competitive Environment.....................................................................................................................................17 Market Statistics .....................................................................................................................................................19 Table 1 - The Market for Expendable Launch Vehicles Unit Production by Headquarters/Company/Program 2010 - 2019 ................................................21 Table 2 - The Market for Expendable Launch Vehicles Value Statistics by Headquarters/Company/Program 2010 - 2019.................................................25 Figure 1 - The Market for Expendable Launch Vehicles Unit Production 2010 - 2019 (Bar Graph) ...............................................................................30 Figure 2 - The Market for Expendable Launch Vehicles Value of Production 2010 - 2019 (Bar Graph).........................................................................30 Table 3 - The Market for Expendable Launch Vehicles Unit Production % Market Share by Headquarters/Company 2010 - 2019 ....................................31 Table 4 - The Market for Expendable Launch Vehicles Value Statistics % Market Share by Headquarters/Company 2010 - 2019.....................................33 Figure 3 - The Market for Expendable Launch Vehicles Unit Production % Market Share 2010 - 2019 (Pie Chart) ......................................................35 Figure 4 - The Market for Expendable Launch Vehicles Value Statistics % Market Share 2010 - 2019 (Pie Chart).......................................................35 Conclusion ...............................................................................................................................................................36 * * * ©2010 October 2010 Product Code F621 The Market for Expendable Launch Vehicles PROGRAMS The following reports are included in this section: (Note: a single report may cover several programs.) Angara Ares I (Crew Launch Vehicle) Ariane 5 Atlas V Cyclone CZ-2 (Long March 2) CZ-3 (Long March 3) CZ-4 (Long March 4) CZ-5 (Long March 5) Delta II Dnepr EELV Falcon Launch Vehicles GSLV H-2A/H-2B J-2 (GX) M-V Launch Vehicle Pegasus XL Proton PSLV Rockot/Strela Sea Launch Shavit Soyuz Start/Start-1 Launch Vehicles Taurus Vega Zenit/Land Launch ©2010 October 2010 Product Code F621 The Market for Expendable Launch Vehicles Introduction For years, the expendable launch vehicle suffered from Ares I a downturn in demand, especially in the commercial Ares V sector. This has left only two major players in the Ariane 5 commercial launch market, International Launch Atlas V Services (ILS) and Arianespace. Other launch vehicles Cyclone heavily rely on government contracts to keep up CZ-2 (Long March 2) demand. CZ-3 (Long March 3) CZ-4 (Long March 4) However, there has been a recent spike in satellite CZ-5 (Long March 5) purchases by the major commercial communications Delta II satellite operators. These new satellites will need to be Dnepr launched, creating a boon for the launch vehicle EELV (Delta IV derived, Atlas V derived) industry. The lack of competition allows these two Falcon-1 companies to charge higher prices, making them a more Falcon-9 sustainable level of profitability forward in the future. GSLV Going forward, the industry will have to focus on a H-2A/H-2B number of issues. While the current satellite building J-2 (GX) boom is helping the industry, the expected drop in M-V satellite purchases will reduce demand for launches. In Pegasus XL addition, a number of new players, as well the return of Proton older players into the market, will increase competition. PSLV Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) hopes to Rockot/Strela compete with established launch vehicle providers by Sea Launch selling services on its Falcon-9 launch vehicle at much Shavit lower prices. In addition, Sea Launch expects to exit Soyuz bankruptcy protection and begin operations shortly. Start Taurus The following are the expendable launch vehicles for Taurus 2 which a production forecast is provided in this analysis: Vega Angara Zenit * * * ©2010 Space Systems Forecast - Launch Vehicles & Manned Platforms CZ-3 (Long March 3) Outlook Unit Production Forecast 2010-2019 Long March 3B failure in Aug. 2009 was the first Long 7 March failure in 13 years 6 5 Commercial launches originating from China will most 4 likely take place on Long March 3B rockets 3 Feng Yun (FY) and Beidou spacecraft will continue to 2 launch on Long March 3A rockets 1 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Units 6545421000Units Orientation Description. The CZ-3 is a series of three-stage Total Produced. More than 40 CZ-3s have been expendable launch vehicles. produced. Sponsor. People's Republic of China's Ministry of Application. The CZ-3 (also known as Long March 3) Aeronautics. series is designed to carry medium-to-large payloads into geostationary transfer orbit (GTO). Status. Production; the CZ-3A and CZ-3B became commercially available in 1993 and 1995, respectively. Price Range. CZ-3, about $40 million; CZ-3A, China has retired the standard CZ-3 variant. $45 million; CZ-3B, $65 million. Contractors Prime China Aerospace Science & http://www.spacechina.com, 9 Fucheng Rd, PO Box 949, Haidian District, Beijing, Technology Corp, (CASC) 100830 China, Tel: + 86 6837 0043, Fax: + 86 6837 0080, Email: [email protected], Lead Contractor China Great Wall Industry Corp http://www.cgwic.com, 30 Haidian Nanlu, Beijing, 100080 China, Tel: + 86 10 6874 8888, Fax: + 86 10 6874 8876, Email: [email protected], Prime Subcontractor China Academy of Launch Vehicle http://www.calt.com.cn, Building Number 19, Wanyuan Rd, PO Box 9200, Beijing, Technology, CALT 100076 China (CZ-3 - Long March 3; Principal Long March Design & Production) Shanghai Academy of Space and http://www.sast.org.cn/en/index.htm, 100 Qinzhou Rd, Shanghai, 200235 China, Technology, SAST Tel: + 86 21 6470 3918, Fax: + 86 21 6470 4007, Email: [email protected] (Long March Design & Production) Comprehensive information on Contractors can be found in Forecast International's "International Contractors" series. For a detailed description, go to www.forecastinternational.com (see Products & Samples/Governments & Industries) or call + 1 (203) 426-0800. Contractors are invited to submit updated information to Editor, International Contractors, Forecast International, 22 Commerce Road, Newtown, CT 06470, USA; [email protected] ©2010 September 2010 Page 2 Space Systems Forecast - Launch Vehicles & Manned Platforms CZ-3 (Long March 3) Technical Data (CZ-3) Design Features. The CZ-3 family is China's The cryogenic third stage uses a YF-75 engine burning principal means of delivering satellite payloads to liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen. Following the first geosynchronous transfer orbit (GTO). Of this group, flight of the CZ-3 in 1984, the PRC became only the the CZ-3B is the most powerful and is China's rocket of third space entity, after the United States and the choice for placing Western commercial communications European Space Agency, to successfully use a satellites in GTO. cryogenic propellant system. A three-stage booster, the CZ-3 borrows the two stages On a typical geosynchronous mission, the CZ-3 places of the CZ-2C; indeed, the majority of the technology its third stage and payload into an initial orbit that and flight hardware used in the CZ-3 was flight ranges from 310 kilometers to 450 kilometers at an qualified on the CZ-2C. The CZ-3's first stage, inclination of 31.1. As it nears the equator on its first designated L140 or YF-6, is powered by a cluster of southbound pass, the third stage re-ignites to place the four 75-ton thrust YF-20 liquid rocket engines burning satellite into GTO. A few days later, the satellite's unsymmetrical dimethylhydrazine (UDMH) and apogee kick motor ignites to place the satellite in nitrogen tetroxide (N2O4). The second stage, which is geosynchronous orbit. China has retired the common designated L-35 or YF-24, uses a YF-22 engine with a CZ-3 baseline variant in favor of the CZ-3A, CZ-3B and burn time of 130 seconds. For in-flight control, the CZ-3C. second stage is also equipped with four YF-23 vernier rocket engines, which also use UDMH fuel and N2O4. (CZ-3A) Design Features. The CZ-3A is a three-stage vehicle a shorter burn time. Borrowed from the CZ-2C is the incorporating the mature technologies of the CZ-3 but L35 second stage. The new H-18 cryogenic third stage adding a considerably more powerful cryogenic third is powered by a YF-75 liquid rocket engine that burns stage. The rocket uses the L180 first stage from the liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen. CZ-2E, but carries less propellant and consequently has Metric