SEEKING A HUMAN SPACEFLIGHT PROGRAM WORTHY OF A GREAT NATION “We choose...to do [these] things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard...” John F. Kennedy September 12, 1962 Review of U.S. Human Spaceflight Plans Committee 3 SEEKING A HUMAN SPACEFLIGHT PROGRAM WORTHY OF A GREAT NATION Table of Contents Preface .......................... ...................................................................................................................................... 7 Executive Summary ..... ...................................................................................................................................... 9 Chapter 1.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 19 Chapter 2.0 U.S. Human Spaceflight: Historical Review ............................................................................ 27 Chapter 3.0 Goals and Future Destinations for Exploration ........................................................................ 33 3.1 Goals for Exploration ............................................................................................................... 33 3.2 Overview of Destinations and Approach .................................................................................. 33 3.3 Mars First .................................................................................................................................. 35 3.4 Moon First ................................................................................................................................ 37 3.5 The Flexible Path to Mars ......................................................................................................... 40 3.6 Summary of Strategies for Exploration Beyond Low-Earth Orbit ........................................... 43 Chapter 4.0 Current Human Spaceflight Programs ...................................................................................... 47 4.1 The Space Shuttle .................................................................................................................... 47 4.2 The International Space Station ............................................................................................... 51 4.3 The Constellation Program ....................................................................................................... 57 Chapter 5.0 Launch to Low-Earth Orbit and Beyond .................................................................................. 63 5.1 Evaluation Methodology for Launch Vehicles ......................................................................... 63 5.2 Heavy Lift to Low-Earth Orbit and Beyond ............................................................................. 64 5.3 Crew Launch to Low-Earth Orbit ............................................................................................ 68 5.4 Additional Issues in Launcher Selection .................................................................................. 72 Chapter 6.0 Program Options and Evaluation .............................................................................................. 77 6.1 Evaluation Criteria .................................................................................................................... 77 6.2 Key Decisions and Integrated Options ..................................................................................... 79 6.3 Integrated Options Constrained to the FY 2010 Budget ........................................................... 84 6.4 Moon First Integrated Options Fit to the Less-Constrained Budget ......................................... 85 6.5 Flexible Path Integrated Options Fit to the Less-Constrained Budget ..................................... 91 6.6 Comparisons Across Integrated Options .................................................................................. 94 Chapter 7.0 Critical Technologies for Sustainable Exploration ................................................................... 99 7.1 Fundamental Unknowns ........................................................................................................... 99 7.2 Propellant Storage and Transfer in Space ................................................................................. 100 7.3 In Situ Propellant Production and Transport ............................................................................. 101 7.4 Mars Orbit to Surface Transportation ....................................................................................... 102 7.5 Advanced Space Propulsion ..................................................................................................... 102 7.6 Technology Summary ............................................................................................................... 103 Chapter 8.0 Partnerships ............................................................................................................................... 105 8.1 International Partnerships ......................................................................................................... 105 8.2 U.S. Intra-Government Partnerships ......................................................................................... 107 Chapter 9.0 Concluding Observations .......................................................................................................... 111 9.1 Establishing Goals .................................................................................................................... 111 9.2 Matching Resources and Goals ................................................................................................ 111 9.3 NASA Management Challenges ............................................................................................... 112 9.4 Systems Engineering ................................................................................................................ 113 9.5 Procuring Systems .................................................................................................................... 113 9.6 Managing the Balance of Human and Robotic Spaceflight ...................................................... 114 9.7 Concluding Summary ............................................................................................................... 115 4 Review of U.S. Human Spaceflight Plans Committee SEEKING A HUMAN SPACEFLIGHT PROGRAM WORTHY OF A GREAT NATION Appendices A. Committee Member Biographies .............................................................................................. 117 B. Committee Staff ........................................................................................................................ 123 C. Review of U.S. Human Space Flight Plans Statement of Task ................................................ 127 D. Charter of the Review of U.S. Human Space Flight Plans Committee .................................... 131 E. List of Full Committee Meetings and Locations ...................................................................... 135 F. Briefers and Committee Contacts ............................................................................................. 137 G. Communications and Public Engagement ................................................................................ 141 H. Bibliography ............................................................................................................................. 145 Glossary Acronyms and Abbreviations ................................................................................................... 153 Back Cover: The Space Shuttle as it moves through the fog on its way down the 3 1/2–mile crawlerway enroute to Launch Pad 39A. Source: NASA Review of U.S. Human Spaceflight Plans Committee 5 SEEKING A HUMAN SPACEFLIGHT PROGRAM WORTHY OF A GREAT NATION Review of U.S. HUMAN SPACEFLIGHT Plans Committee 6 Review of U.S. Human Spaceflight Plans Committee SEEKING A HUMAN SPACEFLIGHT PROGRAM WORTHY OF A GREAT NATION PREFACE Over the next 10 years, NASA is scheduled to devote $99 ing profile in the FY 2010 President’s budget would not be billion to the nation’s human spaceflight program. In rec- exceeded. In subsequent discussions between the Commit- ognition of the magnitude of these planned expenditures, tee chairman and members of the White House staff, it was coupled with questions about the status of the current hu- agreed that at least two program options would be presented man spaceflight program, the White House Office of Sci- that comply with the above constraints; however, if those ence and Technology Policy, as part of the due diligence of a options failed to fully satisfy the stated study objectives, ad- new administration, called for an independent review of the ditional options could be identified by the Committee. No present and planned effort. Two conditions framed this re- other bounds were placed on the Committee’s work. quest: all ongoing human spaceflight work by NASA and its contractors was to continue uninterrupted during the review The Committee wishes to acknowledge the highly profes- process; and the review team’s findings were to be available sional and responsive support provided to it by the staff of 90 days from the Committee’s formal establishment and a NASA, as well as the staff of the Aerospace Corporation, formal report be published thereafter, in recognition of the which provided independent analysis in support