The Crime Drop in Florida: An Examination of the Trends and Possible Causes by: William D. Bales Ph.D. Florida State University College of Criminology and Criminal Justice and Alex R. Piquero, Ph.D. University of Texas at Dallas Program in Criminology April 15, 2012 Sponsored by: The PEW Charitable Trusts and the John Jay College Center on Media, Crime and Justice TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables ........................................................................................................................................ 3 List of Figures ....................................................................................................................................... 4 Abstract ................................................................................................................................................. 5 I. Introduction....................................................................................................................................... 7 II. Trends in Crime in Florida: 1980 - 2010 ............................................................................................ 7 II.A Part I Index Crimes ................................................................................................................ 8 II.B Murders ................................................................................................................................. 10 II.C Forcible Sex Crimes .............................................................................................................. 12 II.D Robbery ................................................................................................................................. 14 II.E Aggravated Assault................................................................................................................. 16 II.F Total Violent Crime ................................................................................................................ 18 II.G Burglary ................................................................................................................................. 20 II.H Larceny .................................................................................................................................. 22 II.I Motor Vehicle Theft ............................................................................................................... 24 II.J Total Property Crime .............................................................................................................. 26 III. Possible Explanations of the Drop in Crime in Florida ................................................................... 28 III.A Resident Demographic Groups at Higher Risk of Crime and Changes in Crime Rates ........ 28 III.B Economic Indicators and Changes in Crime Rates ............................................................. 33 III.B.1 Unemployment Rates and Crime ....................................................................................... 33 III.B.2 Poverty and Crime ............................................................................................................. 36 III.C Police Presence and Efficiency and Changes in Crime Rates .............................................. 37 III.C.1 Police Presence and Crime ................................................................................................ 37 III.C.2 Clearance Rates and Crime ................................................................................................ 40 III.D Punishment Measures and Changes in Crime Rates ........................................................... 43 III.D.2 Imprisonment Rates and Crime ......................................................................................... 43 III.D.3 Percentage of Felons Sentenced to Prison and Crime ......................................................... 46 III.D.4 Percentage of Prison Admissions Habitualized .................................................................. 47 IV. Time Series Analysis of Predictors of Changes in Crime Rates ...................................................... 49 IV.1 Imprisonment ....................................................................................................................... 51 1 IV.2 Police .................................................................................................................................. 52 IV.3 Habitualized Felons ............................................................................................................. 52 IV.4 Court Felony Conviction Rate .............................................................................................. 52 IV.5 Unemployment Rates ........................................................................................................... 52 IV.6 Percentage of Registered Voters........................................................................................... 52 IV.7 Population of Males, 10-17 .................................................................................................. 53 IV.8 Limitations .......................................................................................................................... 53 IV.9 Interpretations...................................................................................................................... 54 IV.10 Future Research on Explanations of Changes in Crime Levels ............................................. 54 IV.11 Proposal to Monitor Changes in Crime Levels ..................................................................... 55 References........................................................................................................................................... 56 2 TABLES Table II.1: Total Part I Index Crimes in Florida: 1980 - 2010 ............................................................. 8 Table II.2: Summary of Changes in Total Part I Index Crimes in Florida: 1980 - 2010 ....................... 9 Table II.3: Murders in Florida: 1980 - 2010 ..................................................................................... 10 Table II.4: Summary of Murders in Florida: 1980 - 2010 ................................................................. 11 Table II.5: Forcible Sex Crimes in Florida: 1980 - 2010 ................................................................... 12 Table II.6: Summary of Forcible Sex Crimes in Florida: 1980 - 2010 ............................................... 13 Table II.7: Robbery in Florida: 1980 - 2010 ..................................................................................... 14 Table II.8: Summary of Robbery in Florida: 1980 - 2010 ................................................................. 15 Tables II.9: Aggravated Assault in Florida: 1980 - 2010 .................................................................... 16 Table II.10: Summary of Aggravated Assault in Florida: 1980 - 2010 ................................................ 17 Table II.11: Total Violent Crime Rate in Florida: 1980 - 2010 ........................................................... 18 Table II.12: Summary of Total Violent Crime Rate in Florida: 1980 - 2010 ....................................... 19 Table II.13: Burglary in Florida: 1980 - 2010 ..................................................................................... 20 Table II.14: Summary of Burglary Rate in Florida: 1980 - 2010 ......................................................... 21 Table II.15: Larceny in Florida: 1980 - 2010 ...................................................................................... 22 Table II.16: Summary of Larceny in Florida: 1980 - 2010 .................................................................. 23 Table II.17: Motor Vehicle Theft in Florida: 1980 - 2010 ................................................................... 24 Table II.18: Summary of Motor Vehicle Theft in Florida: 1980 - 2010 ............................................... 25 Table II.19: Total Property Crime in Florida: 1980 - 2010.................................................................. 26 Table II.20: Summary of Total Property Crimes in Florida: 1980 - 2010 ............................................ 27 Table III.1: Demographic Groups at Risk of Crime in Florida: 1980 - 2010 ....................................... 30 Table III.2: Summary of Demographic Groups in Florida at Risk of Crime: 1980 - 2010 ................... 30 Table III.3: Economic Indicators in Florida: 1980 - 2010 .................................................................. 34 Table III.4: Economic Indicators and Total, Violent and Property Crime Rates in Florida: 1980 - 2010 ................................................................................................... 35 Table III.5: Law Enforcement Officer Numbers and Rates Per 10,000 Residents in Florida: 1980 - 2010 ........................................................ 39 Table III.6: Changes in Law Enforcement Officer Numbers and Rates Per 10,000 Residents and Total, Violent and Property Crime Rates in Florida: 1980 - 2010 .............................. 39 Table III.7: Crime Clearance Rates in Florida: 1980 - 2010 ............................................................... 41 Table III.8. Changes in Clearance Rates and Total, Violent and Property Crime Rates in Florida: 1980 - 2010 ................................................................................................... 42 Table III.9: Punishment Measures in Florida: 1980