Missiles, Abductions, and Sanctions: Societal Influences on Japanese Policy Toward North Korea, 1998-2006 by Seung Hyok Lee A thesis submitted in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Graduate Department of Political Science University of Toronto © Copyright by Seung Hyok Lee (2011) Missiles, Abductions, and Sanctions: Societal Influences on Japanese Policy Toward North Korea, 1998-2006 Seung Hyok Lee Doctor of Philosophy Department of Political Science University of Toronto 2011 0Abstract North Korea twice conducted ballistic missile tests close to Japan in 1998 and 2006. While Japan responded with non-coercive condemnations to demonstrate its disapproval in 1998, it imposed unilateral economic sanctions in 2006, marking the first instance in post-World War II of applying a substantial coercion to punish a neighbouring state. The research asks why Japanese policy toward the North shifted for a seemingly identical type of provocation. The dissertation seeks contextual explanations by using inductive process-tracing, a type of ‘middle approach’ between historical narratives and parsimonious theories. It is applied to highlight the underlying mechanism through which public discursive changes concerning national security and North Korea during this eight-year period influenced the subsequent policy shift in 2006. ii The dissertation concludes that the unilateral sanctions were not necessarily a calculated strategic response to punish the missile launch (or North Korean nuclear programs) per se, but were a direct consequence of a deeper shift in societal discourse taking place beforehand. During the eight-year period, there had been other visible provocations and shocks originating from the North, especially the sensational revelation in 2002 of past North Korean abductions of Japanese citizens. These highly-publicized incidents facilitated the Japanese public to be increasingly conscious about Japan’s security weaknesses and re-evaluate its historical relations with its neighbour, leading to a hardened domestic environment in which the new idea of pressuring the North became a feasible option even before 2006. These North Korean provocations and the resulting societal security discourse, along with concurrent structural changes in the Japanese government and mass media which made them both highly susceptible to discursive currents among citizens, mutually interacted to produce the policy result when the opportunity arose. The research, however, also challenges the popular view that the sanctions are the first example of the wholesale transformation of Japan’s post-war ‘pacifist’ security principles. It argues that the confined means (economic) by which the sanctions were imposed reflects the highly nuanced discourse, which endorses Japan’s legitimate right to specifically punish the North for the harms done, but that the societal momentum is not equally supportive of the more controversial areas concerning military usage and the current constitution. iii 1Acknowledgements I first became interested in Japanese foreign policy toward North Korea while in Japan (2000–2005). As a graduate student at the Department of Politics and Economics, Waseda University, I wrote an English working paper on the topic (which, after re- reading it recently, led me to believe that I have made progress since then); but I certainly did not expect that this initial interest would bear fruit in the form of a doctoral dissertation. I would like to thank my former supervisor at Waseda University, Yamamoto Takehiko sensei, for believing in me as a scholar and patiently persuading me to stay in the academy when I was tempted by prospects of financial stability. Now that I look back, I see that my final months at Waseda University helped me to embrace my destiny as a scholar, as an understanding friend of Japan, but also an honest critic when the need arises. In writing and finishing this dissertation, I am, of course, most indebted to Professor David A. Welch, and I doubt that I will ever be able to fully repay everything I owe him. Not only was he the most supportive, reliable, and efficient supervisor a doctoral student could hope for, as a friend he genuinely helped me up on my feet during some of my most trying times. I am also deeply grateful to my committee member Professor Michael Donnelly for his generous guidance and for his wisdom, shaped by long experience supervising East Asian students pursuing graduate degrees in North America. Our numerous talks in his office, and his willingness to share his fascinating iv personal experiences in Japan over the years, helped me to significantly broaden my views. My very special gratitude goes to Tadokoro Masayuki sensei of the Faculty of Law, Keio University. I cannot adequately express my appreciation to the support he has given me over the past four years as a committee member, in both public and private settings. My work would certainly have been less nuanced without his deep local knowledge and generous feedback. Every single moment I interacted with Tadokoro sensei while I co-taught a course with Professor Welch at Keio University for a semester during the 2008-2009 school year had an impact on my view of Japanese foreign policy, Japanese domestic politics, Korea-Japan relations, and the regional history of East Asia. I would also like to express my sincere appreciation to my internal and the external readers—Professor John Kirton of the University of Toronto and Professor Kawasaki Tsuyoshi of Simon Fraser University—for their thorough and encouraging comments. I also thank Amy Goertz for her dedicated English proofreading of my final draft. I would like to thank all my interviewees—in alphabetical order, Iokibe Makoto sensei of The National Defence Academy of Japan, Kitaoka Shinichi sensei of The University of Tokyo, Michishita Narushige sensei of the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS) in Tokyo, Okonogi Masao sensei of Keio University, Tanaka Hitoshi sensei of the Japan Center for International Exchange, and Wakamiya Yoshibumi sensei of Asahi Shimbun—for generously agreeing to share their thoughts and allowing me to quote them openly. Soeya Yoshihide sensei of Keio University offered assistance in arranging some of my interviews, and I will never forget his kindness. v Numerous Keio friends—especially Shiratori Junichirō and Gōroku Tsuyoshi of Tadokoro sensei’s graduate seminar—made my stay at their university pleasant and enjoyable. At Waseda, I had of course developed a certain image of Keio students. While I still embrace my Waseda identity, my Keio friends have surely disabused me of old stereotypes! I have been privileged to be supported by various foundations during my academic endeavour. First, I am grateful to the Kashiyama Scholarship Foundation of Onward Corporation for supporting me during the last year of my residence in Japan as a Waseda student. Without its generous grant, it would not have been possible for me to dedicate my time to applying for the doctoral programme in Canada in the first place. Second, I am very indebted to the Shibusawa Eiichi Memorial Foundation, and in particular to the president, Shibusawa Masahide sensei, and to the research director, Kimura Masato sensei, for kindly agreeing to host me and help make my stay at Keio University truly a comfortable experience. Finally, this dissertation would have taken much longer to finish without the generous research grant provided by The Konosuke Matsushita Memorial Foundation, which, by freeing me of other burdens, enabled me to spend my final year on writing. I deeply appreciate Jaemin Louise Kim for praying for me despite everything that has happened, and Moto and Eri-san for being true friends during one of the most trying times of my life. And I would like to thank Marcus Aurelius and Seneca—or at least what they wrote some time ago—for teaching me what does and does not matter in one’s life. vi But my highest gratitude, of course, for letting me be here the way I am goes to my parents, my sister, and my canine sister: Sangkyu Lee, Chongnam Suh, Kyuhey August, and Kamja. Not least, I thank God for having given me the courage to take a difficult path vii 2Table of Contents Abstract.............................................................................................................................. ii Acknowledgements .......................................................................................................... iv Table of Contents ...........................................................................................................viii CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION.................................................................................... 1 1 Empirical Case for the Analysis ..................................................................1 2 Significance of the Research Question ........................................................5 3 Theoretical Contribution of the Research....................................................9 4 Process-Tracing as a Methodological “Middle Ground”...........................11 5 Overview of the Chapters ..........................................................................13 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW...................................................................... 18 1 Categorization 1: Fundamental Change or Continuity?.............................20 1.1 Literature emphasizing change.......................................................... 21 1.2 Literature emphasizing continuity (despite