RESEARCH AT A GLANCE LOGISTICS IN FRANCE Q42020 LOGISTICS MARKET BUOYANT DESPITE THE CRISIS The logistics market proved itself to be highly resilient in 2020 and demonstrated its importance to the economy. Several trends explain the sector’s strong performance: the accelerating growth of e-commerce as well as its major role in consumer retail during the first lockdown and lately during the vaccination campaign (storage, transport of vaccines, etc.). Companies’ new supply chain strategies and ultimately the flexibility and agility of the sector are generating new requirements for logistics operators. With this in mind, the location of warehouses close to consumption and employment catchment areas remains essential for the optimisation of the supply chain as a whole. In 2021, demand will remain underpinned by the ongoing growth of e-commerce, but also by the need to restock and certainly by France's strategy to “re-industrialise” the country. Take-up TAKE-UP Lease turnkey and owner-occupier development Other Grade A thousand sqm The logistics market has enjoyed outstanding (1.2 million m²). 5 000 momentum despite the health and economic With respect to the regional breakdown, the backdrop of 2020, with a nearly 3.6 million m² North-South axis (Hauts-de-France, Ile-de- 4 000 transacted throughout France. This France, Rhône-Alpes, Centre-Loire and the represents a fall of just 8% compared to last PACA region) accounted for three quarters of 3 000 year. Take-up was well above the 10-year the total, at 2.7 million m². average of 3.4 million m². 2 000 Grade A premises represented 3.1 million m², 1 000 i.e. nearly 90% of the total take-up, of which a third was turnkey and owner-occupier deals 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (Q1) Availabilitywithina year AVAILABILITY WITHIN A YEAR Space under construction Other Grade A thousand sqm Availability within a year stood at 4.2 million much of the supply is still concentrated 5 000 m² to 31 December 2020, i.e. +14% vs. the around the five main markets on the North- same period in 2019. South axis (Hauts-de-France, Ile-de-France, 2021 4 000 Grade A buildings total 3.1 million m². Rhône Alpes, Centre Loire and the PACA February – 3 000 region), which account for 77% of the Research In parallel, warehouses under construction availability. - 2 000 represent 16% of overall availability within a Estate year, i.e. 662,000 m² as of 31 December 2020. The greatest supply is still to be found in the 1 000 The largest amount of construction is in the Paris region, where there is some 1.4 million Hauts-de-France region, where there are five m² available. Availability within a year BNP Paribas Real 0 schemes underway totalling 190,000 m². remains stable vs. 2019. Dec. 11 Dec. 12 Dec. 13 Dec. 14 Dec. 15 Dec. 16 Dec. 17 Dec. 18 Dec. 19 Dec. 20 With respect to the geographic breakdown, 1 AT A GLANCE 2020 Q4 LOGISTICS IN FRANCE OCCUPIER MARKETS Key figures TAKE-UP SUPPLY IN FRANCE (m²) - 1st January 2021 Grade A buildings still dominate the market, Existing supply Future supply Q1-Q4 2019 Q1-Q4 2020 with 3.1 million m² changing hands in 2020. Markets Space under Planning permission Grade A Other Grade A Other Grade A Other Occupiers are still developing the automation construction granted and robotisation of their warehouses to Aix/Marseille - 21 000 - - 176 000 23 000 496 000 57 000 improve the efficiency of their logistics chains. Annecy 128 000 72 000 25 000 260 000 - 15 000 - - Bordeaux - 18 000 - - 118 000 44 000 65 000 82 000 These advances also provide greater flexibility Clermont-Ferrand 12 000 53 000 35 000 34 000 - - - - and agility to adapt to the diversity of Dijon - - - - 83 000 13 000 57 000 6 000 demand. Grenoble 32 000 - - 33 000 - 6 000 11 000 - Lille 15 000 - - - 485 000 134 000 299 000 32 000 Occupiers are still keen on turnkey and Lyon 433 000 212 000 190 000 1 546 000 226 000 59 000 408 000 133 000 owner-occupier moves. Metz 148 000 95 000 107 000 41 000 248 000 - - - Montpellier 67 000 - - 25 000 49 000 50 000 37 000 32 000 Mulhouse 6 000 29 000 - 51 000 63 000 5 000 10 000 - Nancy 12 000 10 000 - 51 000 10 000 10 000 75 000 31 000 Nantes - 17 000 16 000 - 248 000 7 000 144 000 5 000 October2020 Nice/Sophia 92 000 56 000 - 79 000 - - 6 000 – - Orléans/Tours - - - - 272 000 112 000 318 000 55 000 Research Greater Paris 264 000 134 000 47 000 350 000 783 000 226 000 749 000 189 000- Rennes 913 000 368 000 127 000 486 000 13 000 71 000 31 000 7 000Estate Rouen 20 000 19 000 - 19 000 67 000 - 87 000 17 000 Strasbourg 124 000 23 000 92 000 267 000 138 000 30 000 78 000 - BNP Paribas Real Toulouse 65 000 24 000 24 000 25 000 91 000 19 000 41 000 24 000 Total 2 331 000 1 151 000 663 000 3 267 000 3 070 000 824 000 2 912 000 670 000 Other: Grade B and C; cross-dock and refrigeratedwarehouses 3,585,000 m² 87% 662,000 m² TAKE-UP LOGISTICS GRADE A UNDER CONSTRUCTION IN FRANCE TAKE-UP FRANCE IN FRANCE Take-upQ1-Q4 2020 Availabilitywithina year–1st January2021 Prime rents remained flat over Q4 2020. The prime rent in the Paris region is still €57. These figures do not include local logistics, with cities bordering the A86 enjoying significantly higher rents. Similarly, the prime rent in Lyon is €50. In terms of the other cities on the North-South axis, the prime rent in Lille is €46 and in Marseille €47. Lastly, on the Atlantic Arc in Toulouse, Nantes and Bordeaux, 2021 rents range from €45 to €51. February – Research - Estate BNP Paribas Real 2 AT A GLANCE 2020 Q4 LOGISTICS IN FRANCE INVESTMENT Investment in Logistics in France came to €3.1bn in 2020, i.e. a fall of 37% vs. the exceptional year of 2019. 2020 was characterised by a buoyant first quarter followed by a lacklustre second and third quarter before ending on an upswing in the last quarter. The market has proved highly resilient during the health crisis and even though it failed to match the 2019 record, 2020 was the second-best year historically. €3.1 billion 3.90 % Among deals signed during the year, we note the acquisition by Carlyle of the Kinetic portfolio and “Disportfolio” bought by Exeter. Logistics investment Logistics The prime yield in 2020 fell below the 4.00% threshold to 3.90% for a scheme in Loir-et- 2020 Prime yield Cher bought by the German fund Real IS. This narrowing of the prime yield is unlikely to stop here and we forecast a further decline from 2021, most likely to around 3.50%. Logisticsinvestment Logisticsinvestment € million € million Portfolio Single asset deal 6 000 6 000 4 878 5 000 4 878 5 000 Q4 4 000 4 000 3 086 2 815 3 086 Q3 2 815 3 000 3 000 2 043 2 043 1 688 1 688 2 000 Q2 2 000 1 000 1 000 Q1 0 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Investorsnationality–2020 Logisticsyieldsand French bond % Average yield Prime yield OAT 10 years 7% 2% 8 Europe 7 13% North America 6 5,65 42% 5 France 4 3,90 Other 3 2021 February – Asia 2 Research 1 - 36% Middle East Estate 0 -1 BNP Paribas Real 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 3 Locations Contacts HEADQUARTERS Grenoble Nice RESEARCH FRANCE 167, quai de la Bataille de Immeuble Le Grenat Immeuble Phoenix – Arénas Stalingrad 285 rue Lavoisier 455, promenade des Anglais Guillaume JOLY 92867 Issy les Moulineaux 38330 Montbonnot 06285 Nice Cedex 3 Directeur département France Cedex Tél. : +33 (0)4 76 85 43 43 Tél. : +33 (0)4 93 18 08 88 [email protected] Tél. : +33 (0)1 55 65 20 04 Lille Orléans Rose-Ingrid PASCAL 100, Tour de Lille 16, rue de la république Chargée d’études ÎLE-DE-FRANCE Boulevard de Turin 45000 Orléans Activité & Logistique Aubervilliers 59777 Euralille Tél. : +33 (0)2 38 62 09 91 [email protected] Parc des Portes de Paris Tél. : +33 (0)2 20 06 99 00 40 rue Victor Hugo Rennes Bât 264 / 4ème étage Lyon Centre d’affaires Athéas LOGISTIQUE TRANSACTION 93300 Aubervilliers Silex 1 11, rue Louis Kerautret- Tél. : +33 (0)1 49 93 70 73 15 rue des Cuirassiers Botmel René JEANNENOT 69003 Lyon 35000 Rennes Directeur associé Eragny Tél. : +33 (0)4 78 63 62 61 Tél. : +33 (0)2 99 22 85 55 Directeur Logistique France Immeuble Tennessee et Activité Île-de-France 8 allée Rosa Luxembourg Marseille Rouen Tél. : +33 (0)1 49 93 70 22 BP 30272 Eragny 44, boulevard de Dunkerque Immeuble Europa [email protected] 95615 Cergy Pontoise Cedex CS11527—13235 Marseille 101 Boulevard de l'Europe Tél. : +33 (0)1 34 30 86 46 Cedex 2 76100 Rouen Franck POIZAT Tél. : +33 (0)4 91 56 03 03 Tél. : +33 (0)2 35 72 15 50 Directeur Adjoint du Pôle Logistique & Activités France REGIONS Metz Strasbourg Tél. : +33 (1) 47 59 17 34 Aix-en-Provence WTC-Technopôle de Metz Beverly Plaza [email protected] 2, rue Augustin Fresnel Parc du Golf - Bât 33 15 rue de Copenhague 350, rue Jean René Guillibert 57082 Metz cedex 3 67300 Schiltigheim Jean-Laurent de la PRADE Gauthier de la Lauzière Tél.