Trans. Japan Soc. Aero. Space Sci. Vol. 62, No. 4, pp. 175–183, 2019 DOI: 10.2322/tjsass.62.175 Launch Cost Analysis and Optimization Based on Analysis of Space System Characteristics* Qin XU,1)† Peter HOLLINGSWORTH,2) and Katharine SMITH2) 1)Center for Assessment and Demonstration Research, Academy of Military Science, Beijing 100091, China 2)School of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering, The University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, United Kingdom The rapid developments in micro-technologies and the introduction of modularity and standardization into system designs, present significant opportunities for cost reduction in the design and development of satellite systems. However, the high cost of space launch has become a major hindrance to capitalizing on these opportunities. Therefore, seeking appropriate launch opportunities and reducing launch costs might contribute to further growth of the space market. This paper focuses on the analysis of dedicated launch costs factoring in the effect of launch reliability, which in return, can enable the optimization of system designs. Applying a value-centric architecture, system characteristic space is introduced as the design space to define the characteristics of different systems. Based on our launch vehicle database, the launch cost and reliability of different families of launch vehicles are investigated, where the reliability is calculated using a modified two-level Bayesian analysis. The factors of launch cost and reliability are subsequently integrated into the expected launch cost, acting as the objective function for the analysis and optimization process associated with the manufacturing cost of satellites. Through reviewing and redesigning a few classical launch cases, the effectiveness and applicability of the design architecture proposed are validated. Key Words: Conceptual Design, Dedicated Launch Cost, Value-centric Design, System Characteristic Space 1. Introduction Since the latter two options involve too much uncertainty be- yond the technical level, the research efforts of this paper fo- Due to the rapid development of micro-technologies and cus on the dedicated launch cost analysis and optimization the introduction of modularity, a boom in the utilization of for both small and large space systems. It is worth noting that small satellites has been witnessed in the past two decades, this approach could also be further adapted for piggyback driving growth in the space market. As shown in Fig. 1, and rideshare launches if the corresponding data were avail- the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS)1) revealed that able. the number of small satellites launched has continued to in- The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. In crease sharply since 2012, contributing to the constant in- Section 2, “value-centric design architecture” is introduced crease in the total number of satellites launched. The State to describe the general process for the quantitative design, of the Satellite Industry Report 20162) also pointed out the analysis, and optimization of space system launch cost. continued and growing global interest and expenditure in in- Under this design architecture, the system characteristic expensive platforms. space, consisting of the degree of duplication, fractionation, Since commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) products have and derivation, is presented in Section 3 as the design space lowered the threshold of spacecraft design and development, to define the characteristics of different systems and enable satellite manufacturers are realizing significant opportunities the optimization of system designs. Based upon our launch for cost reduction. However, the high cost of launch seems to be in opposition to this trend. For instance, developing a typi- 350 3) Small satellites (<=1000kg) cal small satellite costs roughly $10,000 per kg, while the 300 dedicated launch cost can be much more expensive (e.g., al- Large satellites (>1000kg) most double for the European small launch vehicle Vega).4) 250 Consequently, seeking an appropriate launch opportunity 200 and reducing launch cost might lead to further growth of the space market. 150 The current launch opportunities are divided into three cat- No. of satellites launched 100 egories: dedicated, rideshare, and piggyback launches.5) 50 © 2019 The Japan Society for Aeronautical and Space Sciences + 0 Presented at the 31st International Symposium on Space Technology 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 and Science, 3–9 June, 2017, Matsuyama, Japan. Calendar year Received 22 June 2017; final revision received 12 April 2018; accepted for publication 13 November 2018. Fig. 1. Recent launch history of the satellites recorded in the UCS satellite 1) †Corresponding author, [email protected] database. 175 Trans. Japan Soc. Aero. Space Sci., Vol. 62, No. 4, 2019 vehicle database, Section 4 models and analyses the launch Value cost and reliability of various families of launch vehicles. Fi- nally, the expected development and deployment cost is pro- System value posed as the objective function to enable the optimization Launch process, with the case studies shown in Section 5 and the conclusions presented in Section 6. System level 1 aributes 2. Value-centric Design Architecture Spacecra Model integraon System level 2 Decompose To enable the quantitative analysis and optimization of the system design using both traditional and innovative concepts Subsystem and technologies, a value-centric design architecture based on system characteristic space is presented. System level 3 The basic value flow process in the architecture is shown fl in Fig. 2. Overall, system value is accumulated from the bot- Fig. 2. Value ow diagram. tom to the top. It reflects certain design characteristics of space systems. At the subsystem level (System level 3), the Elaborate System System System characterisc space value within each subsystem is generated from subsystem Definion configuraon Duplicaon Fraconaon Derivaon properties, such as mass, size, and reliability. The subsystem Analysis Subsystem value is subsequently integrated at the spacecraft level (Sys- Subsystem model … Mass … tem level 2). The integrated spacecraft value also influences Property Evaluate the value characteristic of the corresponding launch activities System Integrated cost value … Launch cost … (System level 1). Finally, the value of the three system levels Value Optimize is synthesized into the overall system value. System Objecve funcon Opmizaon algorithm Specifically, in this research, the system property of con- Opmizaon cern is mass and the corresponding value is the expected launch cost. Through exploring the feasible domain of design Fig. 3. Value-centric design architecture. variables, namely, different system designs, the analysis and optimization of the launch cost of a space system can be zation of space system design under the value-centric archi- achieved. tecture. Under the value-centric design architecture proposed by The system characteristics are divided into two dimen- Collopy,6) the specific approaches and techniques of launch sions: homogeneous and heterogeneous degrees. The homo- cost analysis (Fig. 3) are described as follows. geneous degree is mathematically defined as the number of (1) Elaborate. Through the elaboration process, formula- identical or near identical components, subsystems, or satel- tion of the system characteristic space and the overall system lites in a space system; namely degree of duplication. Dupli- configuration definition are established, as well as their trans- cation is widely used to realize an ambitious function or formation relationship. maintain the function in case of unpredictable risks or fail- (2) Analyze. In the analysis process, the system configura- ures. The heterogeneous degree is on the opposite side, tion characteristics such as duplication and distribution are which defines the number of components, subsystems, or sat- analyzed to identify the integration philosophy of the mass ellites performing different functions; namely degree of frac- properties. tionation. In other words, fractionation describes the spatial (3) Evaluate. The evaluation process integrates the launch distribution of the major functionalities of a space system. cost value utilizing the appropriate system value models to In the domain of time, the components, subsystems, or satel- determine whether or not system requirements are met. lites to be designed and produced might be a derivative from (4) Optimize. In the optimization process, an appropriate previous ones in some ways, and such a heritage factor is de- optimization algorithm is applied to reach the best solution fined as degree of derivation. A higher derivative degree gen- by quantifying launch cost as the objective function. erally implies a more mature design, or specifically, a more reliable system. 3. System Characteristic Space The detailed descriptions and formulation of the system characteristic space can be found in our previous research.7) The system characteristic space,7) consisting of duplica- tion, fractionation, and derivation, is introduced to capture 4. Expected Launch Cost Analysis and reflect the configuration characteristics of different sys- tem designs. Through the system characteristic space pro- Before performing the launch cost analysis, the launch ve- posed, the mapping relationship between a set of conceptual hicle database is established to provide the data for the mod- designs and the corresponding system characteristics is es- eling of launch reliability