Open up A special report on migration January 5th 2008 Republication, copying or redistribution by any means is expressly prohibited without the prior written permission of The Economist The Economist January 5th 2008 A special report on migration 1 Open up Also in this section Of bedsheets and bison grass vodka Rich economies gain from high levels of mi- gration, but the benets are unevenly spread. Page 3 The politics of the gun Migration has once again become a touchy political issue. Page 5 Keep out Voters like the idea of tougher borders, but the cost is high and the benets are limited. Page 6 Send me a number Migrants’ remittances help ease poverty back home, but they are not a cure-all. Page 8 Despite a growing backlash, the boom in migration has been mostly You don’t have to be rich good for both sending and recipient countries, says Adam Roberts Developing countries attract migrants too. NOCH POWELL had a point. The Con- new force that is reshaping our world. Yet Page 10 Eservative British politician gave warn- there are now signs of a serious backlash ing, nearly four decades ago, that immi- against immigration on both sides of the Circulate or integrate? grants were causing such strife that like Atlantic. In 2007 activists in America A choice of migration policies. Page 11 the Roman, I seem to see the River Tiber smashed a bill to make immigration easier foaming with much blood. That proved to that had the backing of the president and be nonsense, as did his advice that mi- the leaders of both big parties in Congress. The long term grants should be encouraged to leave. Had In France, Nicolas Sarkozy won the presi- Too much or not enough? Page 13 they done so, Britain and other rich coun- dential elections partly thanks to his anti- tries that depend heavily on foreign labour migrant rhetoric. But this is still a far cry would be in a dreadful state. But one pre- from Mr Powell’s doom-mongering. diction he made was spot on: that by about Politicians in rich countries may tinker now, one in ten people in Britain would be with migration policies. They will cer- migrants. And indeed, at the last count in tainly, under public pressure, put extra re- 2005, the foreign-born made up 9.7% of the sources and energy into building more Acknowledgments British population. fences and walls to keep people out. And In addition to those mentioned in the text, the author By historical standards, that is high. It is by making a connection between immi- would like to thank: Alan Winters of the World Bank; Peter Sutherland of the Global Forum on Migration and Develop- a lot more than a decade ago, and the trend gration and terrorism, they may cause ment; Sarah Wilson of Christian Aid; congressman Ed Perl- is resolutely upwards. Yet it is not dissimi- their societies to become more heavily po- mutter of Colorado; William Somerville, Doris Meissner, lar to that in many other rich countries, liced. But the basic forces driving migra- Margie McHugh and Michael Fix of the Migration Policy In- stitute; Michael Friel, Vince Bond, Dove Haber and Richard which have mostly seen equally rapid in- tion are unlikely to ebb. Smith of the US Border Patrol; Jorgen Carling of the Inter- creases. And it is still lower than in Amer- national Peace Research Institute, Oslo; Louka Katseli, for- ica, where the proportion is now about Counting the ways merly of the OECD; Binyamin Smith (not his real name) of Ethiopia; Abraham Hailezgi of Somalia; Panagiotis Tsiadis 13%, not far o the 15% peak reached just People who cross international borders are and Stavridopoulos Thrasivoulos of Greece; Alicia St.Leger before the rst world war, in the previous often categorised by their motives, and of Cobh, Ireland; Mohammed Benjaber, Youssef Amrani, great era of migration. What is particularly some of these categories are seen as less Amina Bouayach, Fadlallah Mohammed Fellat and Fehri Nouredine of Morocco; and Sally Peberdy of the Southern striking in Europe is that many countries desirable than others. Most migrants move African Migration Project. which until recently had known only emi- for economic reasons, many in search of gration, such as Ireland or Greece, are now jobs, some to be united with relatives. A list of sources is at seeing the sort of inux more typical of Most appear to be doing so legally. Amer- www.economist.com/specialreports countries such as Australia and America. ica in 2002-06 allowed in an average of just This special report will argue that both over 1m legal immigrants a year who emigration and immigration countries, as planned to settle permanently, more than An audio interview with the author is at well as the migrants themselves, have half of them sponsored by relatives. An- www.economist.com/audio been coping remarkably well with this other 320,000 a year entered temporarily. 1 2 A special report on migration The Economist January 5th 2008 2 The number of illegal migrants is by de- nition hard to ascertain, but likely to be smaller than the legal sort. The illegals also go for economic reasons, and they proba- bly make up the bulk of people seen oat- ing on rafts in the Mediterranean or scrab- bling over the fence from Mexico to America. Many illegal migrants do not risk the high seas or physical borders but in- stead enter under some other guise, per- haps as tourists, and then stay on. In that same period of 2002-06, America’s popu- lation is thought to have seen a net gain of 500,000 illegal migrants every year. With- in the European Union it has become im- possible to keep a tally because people can successful strategy for the world’s poor to And they will. Luckily for Europe and move legally among most of the member make their lives a little better. Nor is it the America, there are huge pools of eager countries without asking anyone. Britain, very poorest who travel. You need money workers ready to jump on the next plane, as an island, should nd it easier than most to move to another part of the world. Thus train or leaking raft to work abroad. This to know how many foreigners it has al- as Africa, China and other emerging coun- can be benecial for their home countries lowed in, but its statistics on migrants have tries become less poor, many more people as well, at least as long as the population is recently turned out to be way o the mark. can aspire to travel in search of a better life. growing fast. The IMF says that emigration Lastly, there are refugees and asylum- In the 100 years to 1920, such prospects from Belize, El Salvador, Guyana and Ja- seekers, strictly dened as those escaping encouraged some 60m Europeans to up- maica, for example, may have led to higher persecution but often including anybody root themselves and move to the New wages and less poverty. Some Chinese forced to ee, for example from a war. Ac- World. A European who crossed the Atlan- from the heavily populated east coast are cording to the UN’s refugee agency, at the tic could expect to double his income. To- moving out, despite a fast-growing econ- close of 2006 some 10m people fell into day the incentives are even more enticing. omy. Researchers in Africa report a recent this category. Many go through legal chan- Those who move from a poor country to a rapid inow of Chinese workers. nels, applying for refugee status and then rich one can expect to see their income rise If exporting brawn generally makes asylum. But others join illegal migrants in vefold or more. As long as such dieren- sense for a poor country, sending its better trying to reach host countries by raft or by tials persist, the draw will continue. brains away may not. Most, perhaps all, jumping over a fence. Genuine refugees These days, too, demography is playing poor and middle-income countries face may have no alternative. a big part in migration. Not every migrant chronic shortages of skilled workers. In is aiming for America or Europe: perhaps South Africa, although universities churn The 200m question two in every ve move to another poor or out graduates at a fast clip, many well- The number of migrants in the world to- middle-income country. But those who go qualied people promptly depart for Brit- day, both legal and illegal, is thought to to- to the richest parts of the world do their in- ain or Australia, leaving tens of thousands tal perhaps 200m (though many of the g- habitants a favour. Without migrants, the of jobs unlled at home. In Morocco those ures, even those used by governments, are greying and increasingly choosy popula- with science and engineering degrees, at best educated guesses). That sounds a tions in much of the rich world would al- computer skills and languages go to lot, but it adds up to only 3% of the world’s ready be on the decline today. That mat- France, the Netherlands and Canada, population, so there is great potential for ters for their fast-changing economies, whereas the students of literature and growth. Migration has turned out to be a which increasingly demand either highly public administration stay at home. Pro- skilled workers or people willing to do un- fessor Mohamed Khachami, of AMERM, a pleasant and tiring jobs.