Public Disclosure Authorized Pakistan Getting More from Water Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized William J. Young, Arif Anwar, Tousif Bhatti, Edoardo Borgomeo, Stephen Davies, Public Disclosure Authorized William R. Garthwaite III, E. Michael Gilmont, Christina Leb, Lucy Lytton, Ian Makin, and Basharat Saeed About the Water Global Practice Launched in 2014, the World Bank Group’s Water Global Practice brings together financing, knowledge, and implementation in one platform. By combining the Bank’s global knowledge with country investments, this model generates more firepower for transformational solutions to help countries grow sustainably. Please visit us at http://www.worldbank.org/water or follow us on Twitter at @WorldBankWater. Pakistan Getting More from Water William J. Young, Arif Anwar, Tousif Bhatti, Edoardo Borgomeo, Stephen Davies, William R. Garthwaite III, E. Michael Gilmont, Christina Leb, Lucy Lytton, Ian Makin, and Basharat Saeed ©2019 The World Bank International Bank for Reconstruction and Development The World Bank Group 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 USA DISCLAIMER This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 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Michael Gilmont, Christina Leb, Lucy Lytton, Ian Makin, and Basharat Saeed. 2019. “Pakistan: Getting More from Water.” Water Security Diagnostic. World Bank, Washington, DC. Cover and interior design: Francis Gagnon, Chez Voilà. iii Contents Foreword ix Acknowledgments xi Abbreviations xiii Executive Summary xv Is Pakistan ‘Water Secure’? xv What Undermines Water Security in Pakistan? xvi How Well Are Water Resources Understood? xvii What Interventions Can Improve Water Security in Pakistan? xviii Is Water Scarcity a Constraint to Reaching Upper-Middle-Income Status by 2047? xix Twelve Recommendations for Improving Water Security xx Next Steps xxiii Chapter 1: Setting the Scene 1 Economic, Demographic, and Geographic Context 1 Water Resources Overview 3 Pakistan’s Water Economy in the Global Context 7 Purpose and Structure of Report 9 Chapter 2: What Pakistan Gets from Its Water 13 Key Messages 13 Economic Outcomes 14 Social Outcomes 19 Environmental Outcomes 21 Chapter 3: Pakistan’s Water Endowment 27 Key Messages 27 Average Water Balances 28 River System Gains and Losses 29 Provincial Water Availability and Use 32 Temporal Patterns 32 Groundwater 35 iv PAKISTAN: GETTING MORE FROM WATER Chapter 4: Pakistan’s Water Sector Architecture 41 Key Messages 41 Infrastructure 42 Water Governance 54 Political Economy Challenges 62 Financing 67 Chapter 5: Pakistan’s Water Sector Performance 75 Water Resources Management 75 Water Service Delivery 95 Water-Related Risk Mitigation 102 Chapter 6: Water Security Trajectories 115 Key Messages 115 Introduction 116 Structural Change in the Economy 116 Future Water Demand and Use 118 Changing Consumer Preferences 123 Policy Reform and Trade Shifts 124 Improved Environmental Management 126 Chapter 7: Pathways to Water Security 129 Water Resources Management 131 Water Supply Service Delivery 135 Water-Related Risk Mitigation 136 Appendix A: Pakistan Water Balance Data Sources 139 Appendix B: Legal Framework for Water Resources 143 Appendix C: Summary of WSTF Priority Actions 153 Appendix D: CGE Modeling Approach and Assumptions 157 Figures ES.1 Indus Basin Average Annual Water Balance xvii ES.2 Historical Water Availability, Withdrawals and Consumption per Capita; and Projected per Capita Availability and Demand xviii ES.3 Complexity, Urgency, and Scale of Impact of Key Recommendations xxii 1.1 GDP of Pakistan, 2000–16 2 1.2 Sector Contributions to GDP in Pakistan, 1960–2000 2 1.3 Sector and Agricultural Subsector Contributions to GDP in Pakistan, 2006–16 2 v 1.4 Share of Urban and Rural Population in Pakistan, 1950–2050 3 1.5 Historical Water Availability (1960 –2016), Withdrawals (1975–2016), and Consumption (1975–2016); and Projected Availability and Demand to 2047 6 1.6 Global GDP per Capita and Total Renewable Water Resources per Capita 7 1.7 Global Structural Transformation Trajectory 8 1.8 Water Productivity and Surface Water Stress by Country 9 1.9 Water Security Diagnostic Framework 10 2.1 Share of Cropping and Livestock Contributions to Agricultural GDP in Pakistan, 2006–16 14 2.2 Share of Agricultural Water Use and Water-Dependent Agricultural to GDP in Pakistan, 2016 15 2.3 Irrigated Areas for the Four Major Irrigated Crops in Pakistan, Fiscal Years 2007–16 15 2.4 Average of Irrigated Areas by Province and Water Source in Pakistan, 2006–16 16 2.5 Yield Index for Major Irrigated Crops in Pakistan, 1987–2015 17 2.6 Value of Water in Irrigation for Punjab and Sindh Relative to 1980 Value for Punjab, 1980–2013 18 2.7 Share of Population Affected by Riverine Floods in Pakistan, 1973–2016 20 3.1 Average Annual Water Balance for the Three Hydrologic Units of Pakistan 30 3.2 Annual River Losses and Gains in Key Losing Reaches of Indus River, Pakistan, 1940–94 31 3.3 Average Annual Pattern of Average 10-Day Inflows and Canal Withdrawals, Pakistan 34 3.4 Annual Indus Basin Inflows, Canal Withdrawals, and Outflows, Pakistan, 1975–2015 34 3.5 Annual Inflows to Pakistan from Ravi and Sutlej Rivers, 1960–2015 35 3.6 Groundwater Levels at Khanewal and Sahiwal Divisions, Punjab, 1910–2010 36 4.1 Indus Basin Irrigation System of Pakistan 43 4.2 Timeline of Major Irrigation and Water Resources Infrastructure in Pakistan, 1870 to Present 44 4.3 Reservoir Storage Volume as Ratio of Mean Annual Flow Compared to Coefficient of Variation of Annual Flow for Selected Countries and Regions 47 4.4 Pakistan’s Dam Readiness Stage by Number and Generating Capacity 48 4.5 Projected Increases in Hydropower Capacity, Pakistan 49 4.6 Capacity of New Hydropower Projects by Readiness Stage and Province or Territory, Pakistan 49 4.7 Length of Levees and Number of Spurs by Province in Pakistan 50 4.8 Federally Operated Regular Flow Gauging Stations in the Upper Indus Basin of Pakistan and Average Period of Record, 1960–2016 51 4.9 Major Policy and Institutional Milestones before Partition and before and after the Indus Waters Treaty in Pakistan, 1940 to Present 56 4.10 Major Federal and Provincial Legal Instruments before Partition and before and after the Indus Water Treaty in Pakistan, 1860 to Present 58 4.11 Federal and Provincial Government Water Sector Funding Allocations and Percentage of Total Federal Budget in Pakistan, 2000–17 67 4.12 National Investment and Expenditure for First WSTF Action in Pakistan, 2013–17 68 4.13 National Investment and Expenditure for Second WSTF Action in Pakistan, 2013–17 69 4.14 National Investment and Expenditure for Third WSTF Action in Pakistan, 2013–17 69 4.15 National Investment and Expenditure for Fourth WSTF Action in Pakistan, 2013–17 70 4.16 National Investment and Expenditure for Fifth WSTF Action in Pakistan, 2013–17 70 5.1 Relationship between Annual Irrigation Shortfall and Total Annual Inflow in Pakistan, 1992–2015 82 vi PAKISTAN: GETTING MORE FROM WATER 5.2 Share among Provinces of Annual Shortfall of Canal Withdrawals Relative to Water Apportionment Accord Baseline Allocation Volume in Pakistan, 1992–2015 83 5.3 Annual Series of Total Canal Withdrawals, Outflow below Kotri Barrage, and Losses as Components of Indus Basin Inflows, Pakistan, 1975–2015 84 5.4 Annual Water Balance Closure and Mean Annual Temperature Anomaly for Karachi, Pakistan, 1975–2015 84 5.5 Indus River System Outflows from Kotri Barrage as Share of System Inflow, by Season, 1975–2015 87 5.6 Total Economic Productivity of Water in Selected Countries 90 5.7 Agricultural Water Productivity in Selected Countries 90 5.8 Economic Productivity of Major Crops for Selected Countries and Globally, 1961–2016 91 5.9 Estimated Average Blue Water (Irrigation) Footprints of Wheat, Raw Sugar, Rice, and Cotton for Pakistan 92 5.10 Key Water Footprint Metrics for Rice in Major Rice-Growing Countries 93 5.11 Share of Farm Sizes in Pakistan by Number and Aggregate Area, 1990, 2000, 2010 94 5.12 Share of Access to Improved Water Supply