The People’s Peace Second Edition Also by Colin Irwin The People’s Peace Process in Northern Ireland The People’s Peace ‘Pax Populi, Pax Dei’ – How Peace Polls are Democratizing the Peace Making Process 20 Peace Lessons from Northern Ireland to Israel and Palestine For articles, reports and updates see the authors website at: www.peacepolls.org ii The People’s Peace Second Edition Public Opinion, Public Diplomacy and World Peace Colin Irwin iii The People’s Peace Second Edition Public Opinion, Public Diplomacy and World Peace Copyright © 2020 Colin Irwin All rights reserved First edition 2012 Printed in the United States of America ISBN-9798675897421 This edition is printed on demand by CreateSpace, Scotts Valley, CA. iv Pax populi, pax dei, pax mundi v vi Contents List of Figures xii List of Tables xiii Glossary and Abbreviations XX Preface XXiv Acknowledgements XXviii 1. Conflict Resolution and Peace Research Theory 1 Introduction The politics of peace research 5 2. Northern Ireland and the Development of the Peace Polls 7 Method 3. The Northern Ireland Peace Polls and Negotiation of the 9 Belfast Agreement Poll 1 - Peace Building and Public Policy 26 Poll 2 - After the Elections...? 27 Poll 3 - The Future of the Stormont Talks 29 Poll 4 – In Search of a Settlement 30 Poll 5 - A Comprehensive Settlement 32 Poll 6 - Implementation of the Belfast Agreement 33 Poll 7 - The Mitchell Review 34 Poll 8 - The Future of the Peace Process 35 Poll 9 – Devolution and the State of the Peace Process 36 Poll 10 – The Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly 37 (uncompleted) 4. The Balkans 39 Macedonia 39 Bosnia and Herzegovina 47 Kosovo and Serbia 54 5. Kashmir 60 Poll 1. Myth and reality 61 The Problems 62 The Solutions 65 Economic solutions 65 Education solutions 66 Security solutions 67 Human Rights solutions and the law 69 Refugee solutions 69 Peace-building solutions 70 Negotiations 72 Constitutional reform 73 vii Poll 2. Pak v Iak: Getting beyond a referendum 77 The Constitutional Question 77 The Problems 79 The Solutions 80 Poll 3. People want to move on 82 6. Sri Lanka 86 Poll 1. Peace in Sri Lanka: From symbols to substance 87 Problems 88 Solutions 89 Polls 2 and 3, The APRC proposals 93 ‘War and Peace’ and the APRC Proposals 95 Key Findings 95 Introduction 95 Sinhala response 97 Tamil response 99 Up-Country Tamil response 101 Muslim response 101 Support for reform 101 Northern, Eastern and Tamils in the rest of Sri 103 Lanka Political party response 104 The politics of ‘Religious Rights’ 106 Problems 107 If there is no Reform 110 Those for or against the APRC proposals in Sri 111 Lanka Opposition to progressive reform outside Sri 113 Lanka What happened next 115 7. Cyprus 1998/2005 117 8. The West and the Muslim World 122 Gambling with the security of the state 124 UK Government public opinion research after 9/11 [2001] 125 UK press polls after 9/11 [2001] 127 UK press and community polls after 7/7 [2005] 129 A conflict in search of a peace process 138 9. Israel and Palestine 145 The future of the city of Jerusalem 146 Refugees and the right of return 147 Public support for a negotiated settlement 148 Israel Palestine peace poll 151 The shape of an agreement - Problems 152 viii The shape of an agreement - Solutions 154 Final status 154 Refugees 156 Security 157 Settlements 157 Borders, West Bank-Gaza connector, 158 water and natural resources Jerusalem and Holy Sites 158 The potential for agreement and 160 implementation Process - Problems 161 Process - Solutions 164 Rebuilding confidence 164 Negotiations 165 Economic priorities 165 Reconciliation 166 What happened next 166 10. Darfur - Sudan and the Arab Spring 171 Negotiation of a peace agreement for Darfur 174 Security 177 Justice 181 Administration and democracy 183 Political reform 185 Development 188 The top 10 priorities 191 Arab Spring 191 11. Pax Populi, Pax Dei - Peace Polls in Comparative 194 Perspective and How to Make Them Work Peace poll descriptions – problems, solutions and analysis 194 Northern Ireland 195 Macedonia 196 Bosnia and Herzegovina 198 Kosovo 199 Kashmir 201 Sri Lanka 203 The UK – West and Muslim World 206 Israel and Palestine 209 Peace poll agreements and constitutional packages 211 Peace poll politics 216 Conclusion: Making peace polls work and coming to 222 terms with the politics of peace research ix 12. Cyprus 2016/17 – How to melt a frozen conflict 225 Using polls to reach a peace agreement in Northern 226 Ireland, Cyprus, Israel and Palestine Regional imperatives and the need for renewed 228 Cyprus negotiations CBMs and getting to ‘Yes’ in a referendum 234 Conclusion and Recommendation 237 13. Syria 240 Summary of Syrian pilot poll 243 Methodology and Sample 243 Problems 243 Conflict and Responsibility 247 Justice 248 Violation of Human Rights 252 Conclusion 255 What happened next 257 14 Pax Populi, Pax Dei, Pax Mundi, and a World Peace Poll 259 Questionnaire Design for a global ‘Peoples Peace Index’ 261 (PPI) 1. Problems Questions 261 2. Conflict Identity Questions 265 3. Other Countries Questions 267 4. Solutions Questions 269 5. Demographic Questions 271 Sample design for a global ‘Peoples Peace Index’ (PPI) 275 Perception based indexes and fact based indexes 277 15 World peace and truth telling 280 X Appendix 1 – Draft Guidelines written for the World 286 Association of Public Opinion Research Peace polls and violent conflict 286 Ethical principles 288 Peace poll methods and disclosure 290 Items for minimal disclosure 290 Good Practices 291 Management and control of the project 291 Research team 292 Funding 292 Questions 292 Selective release of results 293 Defining relevant populations 293 Over samples 293 Translation 293 Analysis, publication and dissemination 294 Full disclosure of results 294 Newspapers 294 Broadcast media 294 Reports 294 Appendix 2 – Operational Guidance Note for the UN 295 Department of Political Affairs (New York) What is a peace poll 295 When to run a peace poll 296 Who can help? 296 How to get started? 296 The uses of a peace poll 297 Tips for running or supervising a peace poll 298 Questions for the Peacemaker 300 Further information and references 300 References 302 Index 324 xi List of Figures 2.1 Protestant and Catholic support for the Option ‘The European 16 Convention on Human Rights should be a part of the domestic law of Northern Ireland’ 2.2 Protestant and Catholic support for the six options ‘On 17 matters of mutual interest North/South bodies should’ 14.1 Question 1.2 Now with regards to violent conflict in general I 262 will read you a list of problems that have to be dealt with in 263 different parts of the world. For each problem can you please 264 tell me if it is ‘Very Significant’, ‘Significant, ‘Of Some Significance’, ‘Of Little Significance’ or ‘Of No Significance at All’ in your country 14.2 Question 4.1 Here is a list of steps that could be taken by the 270 international community in an effort to reduce the levels of violent conflict around the world. Please indicate which options you consider to be ‘Essential’, ‘Desirable’, ‘Acceptable’, ‘Tolerable’, or completely ‘Unacceptable’ under any circumstances. xii List of Tables 2.1 Eight options for the political future of Northern Ireland 9 2.2 Percentage preference for the future of Northern Ireland 11 options in 1996 2.3 Percentage acceptability for the future of Northern Ireland 14 options in 1997 2.4 Protestant and Catholic perceptions of the causes of ‘The 18 Troubles’ 2.5 Results of the 1995 US Consulate (2003) constitutional 20 question 2.6 Results of the 1998 US Consulate (2003) constitutional 21 question 2.7 Results of the 2003 US Consulate (2003) constitutional 21 question 4.1 Macedonian and Albanian causes of conflict in order of 41 significance 4.2 Macedonian and Albanian priorities for peace and stability 43 4.3 Requirements for fair and free elections 44 4.4 Most significant problems for Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats in 48 Bosnia and Herzegovina 4.5 Bosnia and Herzegovina top fifty priorities to help secure a 49 stable and better future 4.6 Options for constitutional reform in Bosnia and Herzegovina 51 4.7 Question: There has recently been quite a lot of discussion 52 about possible changes to the Dayton Agreement and the need to reform the Constitution. With regards to possible future political and regional changes to the system of government for Bosnia and Herzegovina please indicate which ones you consider to be ‘Essential’, ‘Desirable’, ‘Acceptable’, ‘Tolerable’ or ‘Unacceptable’. 4.8 Most significant problems for Kosovo Albanians and 55 Kosovo Serbs 4.9 Kosovo Albanian and Kosovo Serb priorities for stability 56 and peace 4.10 With regards to a constitutional package for the final status 57 of Kosovo please indicate which of the following options you consider to be ‘Essential’, ‘Desirable’, ‘Acceptable’, ‘Tolerable’ or ‘Unacceptable’ 4.11 Ideal conditions to stay in/return to Kosovo 58 xii 5.1 The ‘problems’ faced by the people of J & K in order of 63 significance 5.2 The top 3 problems for Muslims, Hindus, Buddhists and those living in the Kashmir Valley, Jammu Province and 64 Ladakh 5.3 Economic solutions 66 5.4 Education solutions 67 5.5 Security solutions 68 5.6 Human Rights solutions and the law 69 5.7 Refugee solutions 70 5.8 General peace-building solutions 71 5.9 Negotiation solutions 72 5.10 Constitutional solutions 74 5.11 A constitutional package for Kashmir 75 5.12 A constitutional package for Kashmir 76 5.13 A constitutional package for Kashmir – results for PaK 78 5.14 The ‘problems’ faced by the people of PaK