Verification: How Much Is Enough? Stockholm International Peace Research Institute SIPRI is an independent institute for research into problems of peace and conflict, especially those of arms control and disarmament. It was established in 1966 to commemorate Sweden's 150 years of unbroken peace. The institute is financed by the Swedish Parliament. The staff, the Governing Board and the Scientific Council are international. The Board and Scientific Council are not responsible for the views expressed in the publications of the institute. Governing Board Rolf Bjornerstedt, Chairman (Sweden) Egon Bahr (FR Germany) Francesco Calogero (Italy) Tim Greve (Norway) Max Jakobson (Finland) Karlheinz Lohs (German Democratic Republic) Emma Rothschild (United Kingdom) The Director Director Frank Blackaby (United Kingdom) Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Pipers vag 28, S-171 73 Solna, Sweden Cable: Peaceresearch Stockholm Telephone: 08-55 97 00 V erification: How Much Is Enough? Allan S. Krass Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Taylor & Francis London and Philadelphia 1985 UK Taylor & Francis Ltd, 4 John St. London WC1N 2ET USA Taylor & Francis Inc., 242 Cherry St, Philadelphia, PA 19106-1906 Copyright Q SIPRI 1985 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, electrostatic, magnetic tape, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the copyright owner and publishers. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Krass, Allan S. Verification: how much is enough? 1. Disarmament-Inspection I. Title 11. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute 327.1'74 UA12.5 ISBN 0-85066-305-9 Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data is available Cover design by Malvern Lumsden Typeset by Mathematical Composition Setters Ltd, Salisbury, UK. Printed in Great Britain by Taylor & Francis (Printers) Ltd, Basingstoke, Hants. Preface Whenever arms control issues are raised, the question of the verification of compliance follows close behind. Security is widely assumed to depend on adequate military power. A country which signs an agreement to limit its military capability will therefore wish to make sure that the other parties to the agreement also observe its terms. There are two main issues here. One is technological: what are the capabilities of various verification techniques-what can they do, and what could they do if they were further developed? The other issue is political. For any particular arms control agreement, how much verification is enough? Total certainty is unobtainable: what scale of evasion would be militarily significant? These questions are not simply issues between governments. They are extensively argued about within governments themselves: disagreements about verification often conceal disagreements about whether arms control is desirable at all. In this book-written during a sabbatical year at SIPRI-Professor Allan Krass deals with both the technological and the political issues. He is eminently qualified to do so. Arms control is now one of the central issues of our time: this study is therefore particularly opportune. Acknowledgement is given to Dr Ronald Ondrjeka, Dr James Fraser, Dr Eli Brookner, Dr B. R. Hunt, Dr Tamar Peli, Dr Ola Dahlman and Dr H. V. Argo for their reviews of individual sections of chapter 2. In addition the entire manuscript was reviewed by Professor Stephen M. Meyer of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Mr Ralph Earle I1 of Baker and Daniels in Washington, DC and Dr Valery P. Abarenkov of the Institute of the USA and Canada in Moscow. All of the referees contributed useful and constructive criticism of the manuscript; any remaining errors of fact or inter- pretation are the responsibility of the author. Editorial assistance from Billie Bielckus and Gillian Stanbridge is also gratefully acknowledged. SIPRI Frank Blackaby July 1985 Director This book is dedicated to the memory of Ulf Reinius, a valued member of the SIPRI staff from 1978 until his untimely death in 1985. Contents Preface ................................................................................................................................... Chapter 1. Introduction ............................................................................................... Chapter 2 . The technology of verification.............................................................. I . Introduction ................................................................................................. I1 . Visible light photography ........................................................................ I11 . Infra-red detection and imaging ........................................................... IV . Radar .............................................................................................................. V . Image processing ........................................................................................ V1 . Seismology.................................................................................................... V11 . Nuclear explosion detectors ................................................................... V111 . Electronic reconnaissance........................................................................ IX . Safeguards ..................................................................................................... X . The importance of synergism ................................................................ XI . The technological dimension of verification .................................... Chapter 3 . The politics of verification..................................................................... I . Introduction ................................................................................................. I1 . The USA and. the. USSR as international actors ............................ I11 . Domestic politics ........................................................................................ IV . The role of other states ........................................................................... V . Adequacy ....................................................................................................... V1 . Trust ................................................................................................................ V11 . Trust and adequacy................................................................................... Chapter 4 . Technology and politics ........................................................................... I . Introduction. ................................................................................................. I1 . Legitimacy ..................................................................................................... I11 . Non-compliance .......................................................................................... IV . Co-operative. measures ............................................................................. V . On-site inspection ....................................................................................... V1 . Internationalizing verification ................................................................ Chapter 5 . Conclusion .................................................................................................... Index ....................................................................................................................................... vii List of figures Figure 1. Effects of air resistance on satellite orbit ........................................... Figure 2 . The spatial relationship between a photo-reconnaissance satellite and the Earth's surface ............................................................. Figure 3 . Camera optics for satellite photography ............................................. Figure 4 . Primary mirror for the US Space Telescope ..................................... Figure 5 . The optical path in the Space Telescope ............................................ Figure 6 . Computer-enhanced satellite photograph ............................................ Figure 7 . Night infra-red image ................................................................................. Figure 8 . Thermal infra-red scanner system ......................................................... Figure 9 . Teal Ruby mosaic staring detector system ......................................... Figure 10. The Cobra Dane radar .............................................................................. Figure 11 . The Pave Paws radar ................................................................................. Figure 12. Individual phased-array elements ........................................................... Figure l3. Backscatter over-the-horizon (OTH) radar ........................................ Figure 14. OTH transmitting antenna array ........................................................... Figure 15 . Synthetic aperture radar ............................................................................ Figure l6. SAR images of tank formations ............................................................ Figure 17 . Noise cleaning ............................................................................................... Figure l8. Motion de-blurring ...................................................................................... Figure 19. Histogram equalization