Should Canada Participate in Ballistic Missile Defence? A SURVEY OF THE EXPERTS By Jeffrey F. Collins JULY 2018 A Macdonald-Laurier Institute Publication Board of Directors Richard Fadden Former National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister, CHAIR Ottawa Pierre Casgrain Brian Flemming Director and Corporate Secretary, International lawyer, writer, and policy advisor, Halifax Casgrain & Company Limited, Montreal Robert Fulford VICE-CHAIR Former Editor of Saturday Night magazine, Laura Jones columnist with the National Post, Ottawa Executive Vice-President of the Canadian Federation Wayne Gudbranson of Independent Business, Vancouver CEO, Branham Group Inc., Ottawa MANAGING DIRECTOR Calvin Helin Brian Lee Crowley, Ottawa Aboriginal author and entrepreneur, Vancouver SECRETARY Peter John Nicholson Vaughn MacLellan Inaugural President, Council of Canadian Academies, DLA Piper (Canada) LLP, Toronto Annapolis Royal TREASURER Hon. Jim Peterson Martin MacKinnon Former federal cabinet minister, CFO, Black Bull Resources Inc., Halifax Counsel at Fasken Martineau, Toronto DIRECTORS Barry Sookman Blaine Favel Senior Partner, McCarthy Tétrault, Toronto Executive Chairman, One Earth Oil and Gas, Calgary Jacquelyn Thayer Scott Jayson Myers Past President and Professor, Cape Breton University, Chief Executive Officer, Sydney Jayson Myers Public Affairs Inc., Aberfoyle Rob Wildeboer Dan Nowlan Executive Chairman, Martinrea International Inc., Vice Chair, Investment Banking, National Bank Vaughan Financial, Toronto Vijay Sappani Co-Founder and Chief Strategy Officer, Research Advisory Board TerrAscend, Mississauga Veso Sobot Janet Ajzenstat Director of Corporate Affairs, IPEX Group of Professor Emeritus of Politics, McMaster University Companies, Toronto Brian Ferguson Professor, Health Care Economics, University of Guelph Jack Granatstein Advisory Council Historian and former head of the Canadian War Museum Patrick James John Beck Dornsife Dean’s Professor, President and CEO, Aecon Enterprises Inc., Toronto University of Southern California Erin Chutter Rainer Knopff Executive Chair, Global Energy Metals Corporation Professor Emeritus of Politics, University of Calgary Vancouver Larry Martin Navjeet (Bob) Dhillon Principal, Dr. Larry Martin and Associates and Partner, President and CEO, Mainstreet Equity Corp., Calgary Agri-Food Management Excellence, Inc. Jim Dinning Christopher Sands Former Treasurer of Alberta, Calgary Senior Research Professor, Johns Hopkins University David Emerson William Watson Corporate Director, Vancouver Associate Professor of Economics, McGill University Table of Contents Executive Summary ..............................................................................................................4 Sommaire ..................................................................................................................................5 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 7 Board of Directors Richard Fadden What is Ballistic Missile Defence? ...................................................................................8 Former National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister, Context: Canada, North Korea and BMD ......................................................................9 CHAIR Ottawa Pierre Casgrain Brian Flemming Question 1: Does Canada face a significant current or near-future threat Director and Corporate Secretary, International lawyer, writer, and policy advisor, Halifax from North Korean ballistic missiles or those of other rogue states? ..........12 Casgrain & Company Limited, Montreal Robert Fulford VICE-CHAIR Former Editor of Saturday Night magazine, Question 2: Can BMD technology provide an effective defence Laura Jones columnist with the National Post, Ottawa against a limited ballistic missile strike? ...................................................................13 Executive Vice-President of the Canadian Federation Wayne Gudbranson Question 3: Would continental BMD be prohibitively costly for of Independent Business, Vancouver CEO, Branham Group Inc., Ottawa Canada to join? .................................................................................................................. 14 MANAGING DIRECTOR Calvin Helin Brian Lee Crowley, Ottawa Aboriginal author and entrepreneur, Vancouver Question 4: Do you think the domestic political situation in SECRETARY Peter John Nicholson Canada is amicable to BMD participation? ............................................................. 16 Vaughn MacLellan Inaugural President, Council of Canadian Academies, DLA Piper (Canada) LLP, Toronto Annapolis Royal Question 5: If Canada joined BMD, would it entail unacceptable TREASURER Hon. Jim Peterson consequences for diplomatic relations with other nations? .............................17 Martin MacKinnon Former federal cabinet minister, Question 6: Would cooperating on US continental BMD strengthen CFO, Black Bull Resources Inc., Halifax Counsel at Fasken Martineau, Toronto the Canada-US alliance? ................................................................................................ 18 DIRECTORS Barry Sookman Blaine Favel Senior Partner, McCarthy Tétrault, Toronto Question 7: Should Canada cooperate with the United States on Executive Chairman, One Earth Oil and Gas, Calgary Jacquelyn Thayer Scott continental ballistic missile defence? ....................................................................... 19 Jayson Myers Past President and Professor, Cape Breton University, Chief Executive Officer, Sydney Conclusion ............................................................................................................................. 20 Jayson Myers Public Affairs Inc., Aberfoyle Rob Wildeboer Appendix A: List of Respondents ...................................................................................21 Dan Nowlan Executive Chairman, Martinrea International Inc., Vice Chair, Investment Banking, National Bank Vaughan References ..............................................................................................................................23 Financial, Toronto About the Author ................................................................................................................ 26 Vijay Sappani Co-Founder and Chief Strategy Officer, Research Advisory Board TerrAscend, Mississauga Veso Sobot Janet Ajzenstat Director of Corporate Affairs, IPEX Group of Professor Emeritus of Politics, McMaster University Companies, Toronto Brian Ferguson Professor, Health Care Economics, University of Guelph Jack Granatstein Advisory Council Historian and former head of the Canadian War Museum Patrick James John Beck Dornsife Dean’s Professor, President and CEO, Aecon Enterprises Inc., Toronto University of Southern California Erin Chutter Rainer Knopff Executive Chair, Global Energy Metals Corporation Professor Emeritus of Politics, University of Calgary Vancouver Larry Martin Navjeet (Bob) Dhillon Principal, Dr. Larry Martin and Associates and Partner, President and CEO, Mainstreet Equity Corp., Calgary Agri-Food Management Excellence, Inc. Jim Dinning Christopher Sands Former Treasurer of Alberta, Calgary Senior Research Professor, Johns Hopkins University David Emerson William Watson Corporate Director, Vancouver Associate Professor of Economics, McGill University The author of this document has worked independently and is solely responsible for the views presented here. The opinions are not necessarily those of the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, its Directors or Supporters. Executive Summary The question of Canada’s participation in ballis- to work with the United States in both moderniz- tic missile defence (BMD) has returned to the ing the North American Aerospace Defence Com- forefront after a decade-plus hiatus. The last time mand (NORAD) and renewing the North Warn- BMD was the topic of national discussion was in ing System’s line of early-warning radar. While 2004-2005. Then, possible Canadian participation the government has taken some tentative steps in the US BMD system was scuttled by the mi- that indicate it takes the North Korean ballistic nority Liberal government of Paul Martin, which missile threat seriously, Prime Minister Trudeau was overly sensitive to anti-American sentiment has acknowledged that BMD is officially off the arising from the Bush administration’s post-9/11 table. actions, not least the invasion of Iraq. To get an independent, dispassionate, and expert The Trudeau government faces a similar (and per- assessment of the merits of formal Canadian haps even more voracious) anti-American senti- participation in BMD, the Macdonald-Laurier In- ment with the Trump administration in power. stitute surveyed the country’s foremost security But the circumstances are also very different, not and defence policy thinkers and practitioners. least from the threat posed by North Korea’s in- Respondents have expertise in Canadian secu- creasingly advanced nuclear and ballistic missile rity and defence issues generally, although mis- capabilities. Despite some recent (misplaced) op- sile defence experts and practitioners are well timism, the Trump-Kim summit in June 2018 has represented among them. More than 70 people not fundamentally changed things. The US also were asked to take the survey, and we received seems increasingly less inclined to protect Cana- responses from 49 of them. The survey was by no da – a fact that was brought home in