Ninety-First Arizona Town Hall October 28-31, 2007 LAND USE: CHALLENGES AND CHOICES FOR THE 21ST CENTURY Background Report Prepared By Arizona State University Michael Crow, President College of Public Programs Debra Friedman, Dean Global Institute of Sustainability Decision Center for a Desert City Editor Patricia Gober Authors Dana Bennett Grady Gammage, Jr. Kristen Keener-Busby Anthony Brazel Patricia Gober Patricia Mariella Edward Cook Suzanne Grossman-Clarke Martin Pasqualetti Peter W. Culp Subhrajit Guhathakurta David Pijawka Susan Culp Carol E. Heim Edgar Ramirez Delacruz Norm DeWeaver Jim Holway Matthias Roth Joseph Feller Nancy Jones Nancy Welch Arizona Town Hall Research Committee Members Warren L. Prostrollo, Jr., Chair Anna Jolivet, Vice Chair Arlan Colton Jay S. Kittle Devan F. Wastchak Catherine Connolly Hartman Lomawaima Terence O. Wheeler Debra Friedman Robert L. Matia Mark Winkleman Grady Gammage, Jr. Elizabeth McNamee Shirley Agnos, ex officio Mary Grier Elliott D. Pollack James R. Condo, ex officio Patricia Gober Fred Rosenfeld Tara L. Jackson, ex officio Susan N. Goldsmith William C. Schubert Janet R. Jennings, ex officio Patrick Graham David Snider L. J. "Chip" U'Ren, ex officio The Arizona Town Halls would not be possible without the support of those who understand the importance of convening statewide leaders and developing consensus-based solutions on Arizona issues. Our sincere thanks are extended to the following sponsors of the 91st Arizona Town Hall. PRESENTING SPONSOR Arizona Public Service Company SUPPORTING SPONSORS Casino Arizona The Nature Conservancy The Virginia G. Piper Charitable Trust Arizona Cattlemen's Association Arizona Open Land Trust The Sonoran Institute and Lincoln Land Institute Joint Venture Union Pacific We would like to acknowledge a number of individuals who contributed to the production of this report. First, Kathryn Kyle copy edited the entire document with diligence and respect for the variety of disciplines and fields represented by the authors. Barbara Trapido-Lurie and Nicholas Moore created colorful and provocative graphics. Michelle Rupp organized the endnotes and provided editorial assistance. And finally, Michelle Schwartz and Kelly Graf provided editorial support. Cover designed by Shalini Prasad. The photograph depicts development in Green Valley, Arizona. ii ARIZONA TOWN HALL Building consensus — Charting progress On October 28-31, 2007, the 91st Arizona Town Hall was convened at the Grand Canyon with approximately 150 citizens representing all corners of the state, various political persuasions and numerous occupations to develop consensus recommendations to address the land use challenges and choices Arizona faces in the 21st century. An essential element to the success and effectiveness of these consensus driven discussions was the background report that is provided to all participants prior to the Town Hall. In a remarkable demonstration of its talent and its dedication to our state, Arizona State University prepared a detailed and informative background report that will provide a unique and unparalleled resource far into the future. For their dedication to the concept that ASU should be embedded in the community and thereby assuring that resources would be available for producing the best possible background report, our sincere thanks are extended to ASU President Michael Crow, Chief of Staff Jim O’Brian and Debra Friedman, Dean of ASU’s College of Public Programs. For sharing their wealth of knowledge and professional talents, our thanks go to the many individual authors who contributed to the background report. Our special thanks go to Professor Pat Gober who spearheaded this effort and Research Associate Nancy Jones who provided substantial supporting assistance. Pat and Nancy served as contributing authors, marshaled top talent to write individual chapters, ensured all deadlines were met (often ahead of schedule), and essentially created what well may be the best resource currently in existence on land use in Arizona. Finally, the Town Halls could not occur without the financial assistance of our generous sponsors. The presenting sponsor for the 91st Arizona Town Hall was Arizona Public Service Co. Supporting sponsors included: Casino Arizona, The Nature Conservancy, The Virginia G. Piper Charitable Trust, along with Arizona Cattlemen's Association, Arizona Open Land Trust, Rio Salado College and Scottsdale Community College, The Sonoran Institute and Lincoln Institute of Land Policy Joint Venture, and Union Pacific Railroad. The consensus recommendations that were developed during the course of the 91st Town Hall have been combined with the background information prepared by ASU into this final document. This final report will be widely distributed throughout Arizona to public officials, community and business leaders, Town Hall members and many others. We believe that this final report, in concert with the work of the 91st Town Hall participants, will effectively help to meet future challenges and make prudent choices about land use throughout Arizona. Sincerely, James R. Condo Chairman of the Board December 2007 iii iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Letter from Arizona Town Hall Board Chairman ........................................................................................... iii Table of Contents ................................................................................................................................................. v List of Figures ................................................................................................................................................... viii List of Tables ......................................................................................................................................................... x 91st Arizona Town Hall Report of Recommendations ..................................................................................... xi List of Participants ........................................................................................................................................ xxxvi Executive Summary – Background Report ...................................................................................................... xli Chapter 1 Taking Stock: How Much Growth, Where, and When ............................................................ 1 Patricia Gober and Nancy Jones Uncertainties about Future Population Growth ............................................................................. 1 Sources of Growth ......................................................................................................................... 2 Characteristics of Growth .............................................................................................................. 6 Geography of Growth ................................................................................................................... 7 Population Density ...................................................................................................................... 10 Growth and Land Development .................................................................................................. 12 Land Ownership .......................................................................................................................... 12 Entitlements and Development Areas ......................................................................................... 12 Chapter 2 Smart Growth and Growing Smarter in Arizona .................................................................. 15 Jim Holway and Kristen Keener Busby The Smart Growth Movement .................................................................................................... 15 Smart Growth Principles & Implementation .............................................................................. 16 The Evolution of Planning and Smart Growth Approaches ....................................................... 16 How Is Smart Growth Different ................................................................................................. 17 Smart Growth Lessons from Elsewhere ..................................................................................... 18 What Has the Smart Growth Movement Achieved? .................................................................. 18 Limitations and Criticisms of Smart Growth ............................................................................. 19 Arizona’s Growing Smarter and Grower Smarter Plus Programs .............................................. 19 Growing Smarter Oversight Council .......................................................................................... 23 Governor’s Growth Cabinet ....................................................................................................... 23 Evaluating Arizona’s Growing Smarter Programs ..................................................................... 25 Smart Growth Recommendations............................................................................................... 27 v TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 3 Land-Use Regulation ................................................................................................................. 29 Edgar Ramírez De la Cruz Principles and Goals of Land-Use Regulation ........................................................................... 29 Rezonings, Variances, and Other Special Uses .........................................................................