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This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND monographs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Building a Successful Palestinian State The RAND Palestinian State Study Team Supported by a gift from David and Carol Richards Research for this study was carried out from September 2002 through May 2004 by a multidisciplinary team of RAND researchers, working under the direction of the RAND Health Center for Domestic and International Health Security in conjunction with the Center for Middle East Public Policy (CMEPP), one of RAND’s international programs. RAND Health and CMEPP are units of the RAND Corporation. Primary funding for the project was provided by a generous gift from David and Carol Richards. This research in the public interest was also supported by RAND, using discretionary funds made possible by the generosity of RAND’s donors and the earnings on client-funded research. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Building a successful Palestinian state / the Rand Palestinian State Study Team. p. cm. “MG-146.” Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-3532-0 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Arab-Israeli conflict—1993– —Peace. 2. Palestine—Politics and government. 3. Legitimacy of governments. 4. Education—Palestine. 5. Health care reform. I. Rand Palestinian State Study Team. DS119.76.B85 2005 956.05'4—dc22 2005005242 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. Cover design by Stephen Bloodsworth and Doug Suisman Cover photo: “The Olive Tree: Hi Mama, I’m Home!” Photographer: Steve Sabella at www.sabellaphoto.com © Copyright 2005 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2005 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 202, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Study Group Directors Steven N. Simon, C. Ross Anthony, Glenn E. Robinson, David C. Gompert, Jerrold D. Green, Robert E. Hunter, C. Richard Neu, Kenneth I. Shine RAND Research Staff by Task Introduction Water C. Ross Anthony Mark Bernstein Glenn E. Robinson David G. Groves Michael Schoenbaum Amber Moreen Steven N. Simon Cynthia R. Cook Health Michael Schoenbaum Governance Adel K. Afifi Glenn E. Robinson Richard J. Deckelbaum Internal Security Education Kevin Jack Riley Charles A. Goldman Seth G. Jones Rachel Christina Steven N. Simon Cheryl Benard David Brannan Anga R. Timilsina Cost Team Keith Crane Demography Michael Schoenbaum Kevin F. McCarthy Cynthia R. Cook Brian Nichiporuk Communications Support Economics Barbara Meade Justin L. Adams Mary E. Vaiana Kateryna Fonkych Keith Crane Michael Schoenbaum iii LEBANON Beirut U.N. SYRIA Mediterranean Zones Sea Damascus Golan Heights West Bank Amman Jerusalem Dead Sea Gaza SAUDI ARABIA ISRAEL JORDAN N EGYPT 0 75 km 0 75 mi RAND MG146-M.1 Israel/Palestine Region U.N. Zones Damascus Golan SYRIA Mediterranean Heights Sea Tel Menashe/Shaqed Tulkarm Netanya Jenin Nablus Qalqilya West Ariel Bank Tel Aviv-Jaffa Modi‘in Amman Ramallah Atarot Maaleh Adumim Jerusalem Gillo Bethlehem Gush Dead Gaza Etzion Hebron Sea Khan Eshkolot Yunis ISRAEL N JORDAN EGYPT 0 75 km 0 75 mi RAND MG146-M.2 Israel/Palestine Region with City Detail Preface The Palestinian Authority, Israel, the United States, the European Union, Russia, and the United Nations all officially support the establishment of an independent Palestin- ian state. This book focuses on a single analytical question: How can an independent Palestinian state be made successful? We do not examine how the parties could reach a settlement that would create such a state. Rather, we develop recommendations, based on rigorous analysis, about steps that Palestinians, Israel, the United States, and the international community could take if a state were established, to promote the state’s success. Once established, the new state must grapple with many difficult issues, includ- ing establishing effective and accepted democratic governing institutions, rebuilding a devastated country, establishing an economy that grows rapidly to provide increased income and jobs for its citizens, dealing with a rapidly growing population and declin- ing water resources, providing basic services such as health care and education, and, above all, ensuring security both within its borders and in relation to its neighbors. This study examines what must be done in the first ten years of independent statehood to address most of these issues and to establish a state with the capacity to succeed. The book first defines success and then examines internal security and gover- nance—areas that must be successfully addressed from the first day of a new state. We then turn our attention to demography, economics, and water before considering two keys determinants of social well-being—health and education. Each chapter analyzes the relevant issues, makes recommendations where appropriate, and provides estimates in the areas discussed of the costs of achieving a successful state. Two companion re- ports are also forthcoming. The first,The Arc: A Formal Structure for a Palestinian State (RAND Corporation, 2005), explores options for addressing local housing, transpor- tation, and related requirements of returning refugees and part of the rapidly growing Palestinian population. The second, entitled Building a Successful Palestinian State: Se- curity, examines security issues in more detail. We hope this study will spur additional research and that the document will be continuously updated as the situation and information change. A number of key areas were beyond the scope of the present study including roads, energy, and ports; we hope ix x Building a Successful Palestinian State to address them in future editions of this work. In each chapter, we have also identified issues demanding further analysis that we hope to pursue over time. This study should be of interest to the Palestinian and Israeli communities; to policymakers in the Roadmap Quartet (the United States, the European Union, the United Nations, and Russia); to foreign policy experts; and to organizations and in- dividuals committed to helping establish and sustain a successful state of Palestine. It should also be of interest to the negotiating teams charged with the responsibility of establishing the new state. Certainly, recent experience in Iraq and Afghanistan under- scores both how hard nation-building can be, particularly in a situation such as the one in the West Bank and Gaza today, and the necessity of having plans in place for the eventuality of an independent Palestine. Research for this study was carried out from September 2002 through May 2004 by a multidisciplinary team of RAND researchers, working under the direction of the RAND Health Center for Domestic and International Health Security in conjunction with the Center for Middle East Public Policy (CMEPP), one of RAND’s international programs. RAND Health and CMEPP are units of the RAND Corporation. Primary funding for the project was provided by a generous gift from David and Carol Richards. This research in the public interest was also supported by RAND, us- ing discretionary funds made possible by the generosity of RAND’s donors and the earnings on client-funded research. Acknowledgments Many people both within and outside RAND contributed to this book. The authors are deeply indebted to the numerous Palestinian and Israeli experts who graciously donated their time and expertise to provide source material for this analysis. We are equally indebted to Laurie Brand, Bruce Hoffman, Lawrence Freeman, Itamar