Travel and Tourism’s Top Ten Emerging Markets Research Report REINVENTING TOURISM www.tourism-intelligence.com ©Tourism Intelligence International www.tourism-intelligence.com Tourism Intelligence International Tourism Intelligence International is a leading research and consultancy company that provides innovative solutions for the travel and tourism industry. Innovation, sustainability and competitiveness are the hallmarks of this consultancy. This report — Travel and Tourism’s Top Ten Emerging Markets — is another in a series of tourism market analyses. Tourism Intelligence International is the publisher of Tourism Industry Intelligence, a monthly newsletter that provides analyses of and tracks the key trends and developments in the international travel and tourism industry, that is also available in French and Spanish. Other reports from Tourism Intelligence International include: Sustainable Tourism Development – A Practical Guide for Decision-Makers €1,499.00 Successful Hotels and Resorts – Lessons from the Leaders €1,299.00 Successful Tourism Destinations – Lessons from the Leaders €1,299.00 How the Americans will Travel 2015 €1,299.00 How Germans will Travel 2015 €1299.00 How the British will Travel 2010 €1299.00 Travel & Tourism’s Top Ten Emerging Markets € 999.00 How the Japanese will Travel 2007 €799.00 World Travel and Tourism – Year in Review (forthcoming 2009) € 499.00 Tourism Industry Intelligence Newsletter (monthly) €229.00 Tourism Intelligence International: German Office Trinidad Office An der Wolfskuhle 48 50 Richmond Street 33619 Bielefeld Port of Spain Germany Trinidad, West Indies Tel: (49) 521 16 38 83 Tel: (868) 625 44 43 Fax: (49) 521 16 38 84 Fax: (868) 625 44 20 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.tourism-intelligence.com © 2008 Tourism Intelligence International. All rights reserved. Terms of Use and Copyright Conditions The material contained in this report has been derived from statistical, trade, company and other sources, including Tourism Intelligence International estimates. All information is verified to the best of the authors’ and publisher’s ability. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication, Tourism Intelligence International cannot accept liability for any data herein, any interpretation made there-from, or for any loss arising from reliance thereon. Tourism Intelligence International reserves all copyright under international copyright law. Travel and Tourism’s Top Ten Emerging Markets may not be copied, stored, reproduced or published in any format, in whole or in part, by any means — electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise — or disseminated to any third party without prior written permission of Tourism Intelligence International. Published October 2008 ISBN 978-976-95061-5-2 Cover designed by Lonsdale Saatchi & Saatchi Advertising Limited, produced and printed by Tourism Intelligence International. Travel and Tourism’s Top Ten Emerging Markets ii www.tourism-intelligence.com ©Tourism Intelligence International About the Authors Tourism Intelligence International With offices in Bielefeld, Germany, and Port of Spain, Trinidad, Tourism Intelligence International is a highly respected travel and tourism consultancy serving government and private sector clients in both established and emerging tourism destinations around the world. We enjoy a worldwide reputation for the quality of our research, analysis, advice and strategic planning in the field of international travel and tourism. We are equally well respected for our abilities to help clients implement innovative processes that optimise the potential of individual operations as well as tourism sectors. “New Tourism” is tourism that is sustainable, environmentally and socially responsible, and mutually beneficial to visitors and host countries. As such, we are regularly retained by international agencies and organisations such as the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB), the European Union, and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), to guide developing countries in their efforts to tap the economic and employment benefits of international tourism. Through our bases in Germany and Trinidad, we are well placed to monitor travel, hospitality and consumer trends in the key tourism markets of Europe, the Caribbean and North America. We share these trends with clients and subscribers through Tourism Industry Intelligence, a bi-monthly newsletter containing strategic advice for decision-makers in the travel and tourism industry. Tourism Intelligence International employs a permanent staff of six, with additional support from six part-time staff. In addition to our internal resources, the consultancy draws on a well-established international network of tourism professionals, independent consultants, companies and research houses. Dr. Auliana Poon heads Tourism Intelligence International Ltd., a leading international consulting company that provides innovative solutions for the travel and tourism industry. Innovation, sustainability and competitiveness are the hallmarks of this consultancy. Auliana Poon led the teams that developed the tourism policy and strategy for the new South Africa in 1996; developed strategies for trend-setting companies such Sandals International (Jamaica) and Conservation Corporation (Africa); and developed the “tourism begins at home” programme that sparked the turn around in the Bahamas tourism industry in the early 1990s. Auliana Poon also led Tourism Intelligence International’s technical support teams in implementing the Euro 6 million Eco-Tourism Development Programme (2003-2007) in the Commonwealth of Dominica and in St. Vincent and the Grenadines (2007-2009). In 2005, she undertook the competitive assessment of the Barbados Tourism Industry; developed the framework for the management and promotion of the Abu Dhabi tourism industry (2004); the Singapore Tourism Board (2003-2004); Travel and Tourism’s Top Ten Emerging Markets iii ©Tourism Intelligence International www.tourism-intelligence.com developed the Marketing and Human resource development strategies for Mozambique (2004-2005). She has provided critical support to the development of a UniVisa System (along the lines of Schengen) in the Southern African Region in preparation for World Cup 2010 and is responsible for the development of one of the Caribbean’s leading resort brands in Africa. Auliana Poon is analyst, co-author and editor of many of Tourism Intelligence International Publications including ‘How Germany will Travel 2015’; ‘How the British will Travel 2010’, ‘How Americans will Travel 2010’ (forthcoming) and Travel and Tourism’s Top Ten Emerging Markets (forthcoming) as well as the company’s monthly newsletter (since 1994), ‘Tourism Industry Intelligence’ that is also available in Spanish. Auliana Poon is credited with: Inventing the concepts of ‘Old Tourism’ and ‘New Tourism’ to describe the rapid and radical transformation of the travel and tourism industry. Developed the concept of ‘Responsible Tourism’ as a fundamental premise of the South Africa tourism policy and growth strategy in the early 1990s. Producing one of the most referenced works on travel and tourism ‘Tourism, Technology and Competitive Strategies’ that one review claims ”should certainly be on the compulsory reading list of all those seeking to advise and direct strategic plan for both old and new tourism destinations”. Advising Abu Dhabi to ‘stay different’ from Dubai; to focus on its culture, heritage and traditions and to assume its role as a true capital of the Emirates, with an appropriate icon – The Pearl – a pearl-like glass structure on 11 floors, out at sea, that would celebrate the life and times of its late Ruler Sheik Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan (1971-2004). Developed the concept of ‘Compassionate Tourism’ for Malawi. Auliana regularly addresses travel and tourism conferences in many countries including Aruba, Barcelona, Barbados, Benin, Brazil, Denmark, Geneva, Greece, Iceland, Hong Kong, Minnesota, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Germany, London, Mozambique, Singapore, South Africa, Washington and many others. An economist by training, Auliana Poon ([email protected]) graduated with a B.A (hons) and and M.Sc (Economics) from the University of the West Indies, Trinidad. She attended one of the leading European Schools, the Science Policy Research Unit at Sussex University (England), where she graduated with a D. Phil (Tourism & Technology) in 1988. Travel and Tourism’s Top Ten Emerging Markets iv www.tourism-intelligence.com ©Tourism Intelligence International Acknowledgements In preparing this report, the authors would like to thank the Tourism Boards and individual companies for the information that they have kindly provided; the United Nations World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) for its kind assistance in supplying data; Barbara Morris, from our German office, for her research assistance; and Kevon Wilson, from our Trinidad office, for co-ordinating the production of the report. Travel and Tourism’s Top Ten Emerging Markets v Table of Contents Travel and Tourism's Top Ten Emerging Markets Executive Brief Page Nos. 1.1 Introduction 2 1.2 Key Tourism Indicators 4 1.2.1 Outbound Travel 4 1.2.2 Tourism Expenditure 8 1.3 Factors Driving Growth 10 1.3.1 Economic Growth and Prosperity 12 1.3.2 Paid Holidays 16 1.3.3 The Impact of Oil Prices 18 1.3.4 Sheer Market Size 19 1.3.5 Emerging