The Third Crossing A Megaproject in a Megaregion www.thirdcrossing.org Final Report, February 2017 Transportation Planning Studio Department of City and Regional Planning, University of California, Berkeley Acknowledgements The authors would like to acknowledge the Department of City and Regional Planning (DCRP) at the College of Environmental Design (CED) at UC Berkeley, the University of California Transportation Center and Institute of Transportation Studies (ITS), UC Berkeley for support. A special thanks also goes to the helpful feedback from studio instructor Karen Trapenberg Frick and UC Berkeley faculty and researchers including Jesus Barajas and Jason Corburn. We also acknowledge the tremendous support and insights from colleagues at numerous public agencies and non-profit organizations throughout California. A very special thanks goes to David Ory, Michael Reilly, and Fletcher Foti of MTC for their gracious support in running regional travel and land use models, and to Professor Paul Waddell and Sam Blanchard of UrbanSim, Inc. for lending their resources and expertise in land use modeling. We also thank our classmates Joseph Poirier and Lee Reis; as well as David Eifler, Teresa Caldeira, Jennifer Wolch, Robert Cervero, Elizabeth Deakin, Malla Hadley, Leslie Huang and other colleagues at CED; and, Alexandre Bayen, Laura Melendy and Jeanne Marie Acceturo of ITS Berkeley. About Us We are a team of 15 graduate students in City Planning, Transportation Engineering, and Public Health. This project aims to facilitate a conversation about the future of transportation between the East Bay and San Francisco and in the larger Northern California megaregion. We are part of the Department of City and Regional Planning in the UC Berkeley College of Environmental Design, with support from the University of California Transportation Center and The Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California, Berkeley. Michael Alston, MCP/MS 2016 Kate Beck, MCP/MPH 2018 Jordan Brooks, MCP/MS 2017 Anne deBoer, MCP 2017 Teddy Forscher, MCP/MS 2016 Alex Garbier, MCP/MS 2017 Yiyan Ge, MCP/MS 2016 Thomas Gonzales, MCP 2017 Dov Kadin, MCP 2017 Evan Knopf, MCP 2017 Ryan Reeves, MCP 2017 Travis Richards, MCP/MPH 2017 Henry Hyokyung Ryu, MCP 2017 Peter Smith, MCP 2017 Paul Sohn, MCP/MS 2016 Instructor: Professor Karen Trapenberg Frick CY PLAN 218, Transportation Planning Studio, Fall 2016 Department of City and Regional Planning, University of California, Berkeley 2 Table of Contents Cover Page .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1 Acknowledgements 2 About Us 2 Table of Contents ..................................................................................................................................................................... 3 Figures and Tables .................................................................................................................................................................. 6 Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................................................ 9 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................................. 13 A Megaproject in a Megaregion 13 Scope of Analysis 14 Research Design 14 Key Considerations ............................................................................................................................................................... 17 Social Equity 17 Accessibility and Connectivity 19 Land Use Planning Coordination 20 Climate Change Mitigation 21 Resilience and Adaptation 22 Policy Context and Current Conditions ........................................................................................................................ 23 Policy Context 23 Additional Agencies and Authorities 26 Land Use and Growth 27 Land Use Planning Efforts 32 Transportation Network and Operations 33 Sea Level Rise and System Resilience 42 Public Health 46 Historical Context .................................................................................................................................................................. 49 Megaprojects Defined 49 A History of San Francisco Bay Crossings 49 Social Equity Case Studies of Transportation Megaprojects 58 3 Social Equity Opportunities .............................................................................................................................................. 62 Approach 62 History of Equity and Transportation Infrastructure Projects 63 Accessibility to Employment Opportunities 63 Gentrification and Displacement 64 Policy Context 65 Making the Case for Active Equity 67 Community Involvement 67 Co-Benefits 71 Project Governance ............................................................................................................................................................... 77 Consideration of Project Circumstances 78 Governance Structure Alternatives 78 Governance Structure Recommendations 84 Equity & Governance 87 Risk Management and Independent Project Oversight ......................................................................................... 90 Megaprojects and Risk Management in Practice 90 Recent California State and Federal Legislation on Megaproject Risk Management 93 Risk Identification and Application to a Third Crossing 97 Performance Metrics ......................................................................................................................................................... 101 Social Equity 102 Accessibility and Connectivity 103 Resilience and Adaptation 104 Climate Change Mitigation 105 Land Use Planning Coordination 106 System Performance 107 Alternative Development ................................................................................................................................................ 109 Alternative 1: New Opportunities (BART) 110 Alternative 2: Critical Needs (BART) 113 Alternative 3: Connecting the Megaregion (Standard Rail) 116 4 Alternative 4: Performance Pricing (No Third Crossing) 120 Alternatives Analysis ........................................................................................................................................................ 124 Social Equity Analysis 124 Accessibility and Connectivity Analysis 127 Land Use Planning Coordination Analysis 129 Climate Change Mitigation 132 Resilience and Adaptation Analysis 133 Model Methodology 135 Funding and Financing ..................................................................................................................................................... 141 Introduction 141 Improving Cost Estimation Accuracy 141 Equity Concerns in Fundraising & Revenue Distribution 144 Funding Scenarios 144 Federal Sources 145 State Sources 148 Local Sources 149 Case Studies 158 Conclusion: Funding and Financing Key Recommendations 164 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................................................. 166 Bibliography ......................................................................................................................................................................... 168 Appendices ............................................................................................................................................................................ 188 Appendix A: Transbay Crossing Reports and Resources - Annotated Bibliography .............................. 189 Appendix B: MTC’s Communities of Concern definition for Plan Bay Area 2040 .................................... 198 Appendix C: Additional Data on Transbay Travel Patterns .............................................................................. 199 Appendix D: Performance Metric Sources & Methodology ............................................................................... 202 Appendix E: Land Use Outputs for Various Model Runs compared to Control Run ............................... 204 5 Figures and Tables Figures Figure 1: Demolition for the cypress freeway in West Oakland ........................................................................ 18 Figure 2: Priority Development Areas .......................................................................................................................... 24 Figure 3: Comparison of Disadvantaged Communities and Communities of Concern ............................. 25 Figure 4: Existing job density in 2012. ......................................................................................................................... 28 Figure 5: Existing household density in 2012 ........................................................................................................... 29 Figure 6: Homeownership rate as percentage of population .............................................................................. 30 Figure 7: Population percentage change in urban areas (over 1000 people per sq. mile) ..................... 31 Figure 8: Daily commuters crossing boundary of the nine-county Bay Area, 2013 .................................. 32 Figure 9: Passenger rail and highway infrastructure serving the greater Bay Area region ..................