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Photographs included in the original manuscript have been reproduced xerographicatly in this copy. Higher quality 6" x 9" black and white photographic prints are availat)le for any photographs or illustrations appearing in this copy for an additional charge. Contact UMI directly to order Bell & Howell Information and Learning 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 USA 800-521-0600 UMÏ DEMOCRACY FROM ABOVE? REGIONAL ORGANIZATIONS AND DEMOCRATIZATION DISSERTATION Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philbsophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By Jon C. Pevehouse, B.A. ****** The Ohio State University 2000 Dissertation Committee: Approved by Professor Edward Mansfield, Adviser Adviser Department of Political Science Professor Donald Sylvan Professor Timothy Frye UMI Number 9971616 UMI UMI Microform9971616 Copyright 2000 by Bell & Howell Information and Learning Company. All rights reserved. This microform edition is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. Bell & Howell Information and Learning Company 300 North Zeeb Road P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 ABSTRACT In the past 25 years, democracy has spread throughout the globe. Many scholars have investigated the causes, implications, and prospects of this global movement towards democracy. Most of these scholars have emphasized internal political processes as the driving force of this movement, while eschewing international factors. I argue that international factors, specifically regional organizations, can have an important role in both the transition to and the consolidation of democracy. 1 elucidate several theoretically-derived causal mechanisms which could link regional organizations to the promotion and/or protection of democracy. Although the instruments which influence transitions to democracy, as opposed to the consolidation of democracy, differ, the end result is that these organizations can manipulate the costs and benefits of democracy to important societal groups such as business elites or the military. Moreover, 1 argue that these domestic elites will utilize membership in or accession to regional organizations to advance the cause of democracy. Regional organizations are thus an important policy tool for elites in these nascent democracies. 1 test this argument in two ways. First, I undertake two statistical analyses using a data set of all countries from 1950-1992. These analyses test for an association between regional organizations and both democratic transitions and democratic consolidation. 11 Second. I investigate five cases (Hungary, Peru, Greece, Paraguay, and Turkey) to examine the actual causal processes behind any statistical association between regional organizations and democratization. I find that there is a strong statistical relationship between membership in certain regional organizations and transitions to democracy. I also find a strong relationship between joining these same regional organizations and the consolidation of democracy. The case studies illustrate that all of the hypothesized causal mechanisms function in at least one of the cases, although some are more common than others. These findings are not only important to international relations theory and comparative politics, but provide loose guidelines for policy-makers who wish to utilize these regional organizations to promote and/or protect democracy. Ill Dedicated to my mother and father, who taught me the importance of education, hard work, and modesty; and who demonstrated the value of all three. IV ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Many graduate students are lucky to find one wonderful advisor with whom they may share ideas and ask for help during the difficult times of dissertation writing. I have been lucky enough to have three advisors who have graciously helped me through this process. I wish to thank Ed Mansfield, who has helped guide this project from the outset. I thank him for all of the time and effort he has spent not only on this dissertation, but in shaping my outlook as a scholar. His hard work and dedication have been an inspiration to me as I begin my own life in the academy. I hope to someday be as valuable as an advisor as he has been to me. I am also grateful to Don Sylvan, who was a constant source of feedback on both ideas and written work. “Coach” has also guided me through graduate school with valuable all-purpose advice for which I am forever in his debt. I also wish to thank Tim Frye, who pushed me to think more theoretically about my puzzle. He has exposed me to new literature and ideas which have greatly improved this project. My graduate colleagues have also been of assistance throughout many stages of this project, including reading drafts and listening to me drone on at length. David Bearce, Pat McDonald. Hiro Fukushima, Kathy Powers, Scott Orr, Kevin Sweeney, and Louise Steen-Sprang have all borne this job with good humor while providing insightful comments. I have also received valuable feedback from seminar participants at the following institutions: Colorado, SUNY-Binghamton, American, Maryland, Harvard, and Wisconsin. In addition, Dan Drezner, Dani Reiter, Beth Simmons, Joshua Goldstein, Deborah Gemer, Phil Schrodt, Helen Milner, and Leigh Payne have provided feedback on drafts of various chapters. I would like to thank my family, including my mother, father, sisters, nieces, and nephew, who all provided emotional support which helped to sustain my sanity throughout this process. Finally, my wife, Elizabeth Erickson Pevehouse, has endured my dissertation writing with an extraordinary amount of patience, kindness, and care. Without her love and support, I can honestly say this project would never have been completed. VITA March 29. 1973 ........................................... Bom - Coffeyviile, Kansas 1995 ................................................................B.A. Political Science, University of Kansas 1995 - present ...............................................Graduate Teaching and Research Associate, The Ohio State University PUBLICATIONS 1. Edward D. Mansfield. Jon C. Pevehouse. David Bearce, "Preferential Trading Arrangements and Military Disputes," Security Studies, Autumn/Winter 1999- 2000. 92-118. 2. Edward D. Mansfield, Jon C. Pevehouse, David Bearce, "Preferential Trading Arrangements and Military Disputes," In Power and the Purse, eds. E. Mansfield, N. Ripsman. and J-M. Blanchard, 92-118. London; Frank Cass, 2000. 3. Jon C. Pevehouse and Joshua S. Goldstein. "Serbian Compliance or Defiance in Kosovo? Statistical Analysis and Real-Time Predictions," Journal of Conflict Resolution. August 1999, 538-546. 4. Joshua S. Goldstein and Jon C. Pevehouse, "Reciprocity, Bullying, and International Cooperation: A Time-Series Analysis of the Bosnia Conflict," American Political Science Review. September 1997, 515-529. 5. Philip A. Huxtable and Jon C. Pevehouse, "Validity Problems in Events Data Collection: News Media Sources and Machine Coding Protocols," International Studies Notes. Spring 1996, 8-19. 6. Jon C. Pevehouse, "Images of the Other: Negative Stereotyping in the Arab- Israeli Conflict," Bard Journal of Social Sciences, September-October 1994, 57- 62. FIELDS OF STUDY Major Field: Political Science vi TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract...................................................................................................................................... ii Dedication.................................................................................................................................iv Acknowledgments .................................................................................................................... v Vita............................................................................................................................................. vi List of Tables ......................................................................................................................... vii List of Figures ......................................................................................................................... ix Chapters: 1. Regional Organizations and the Democratization Process ..................................... 1 1.1 Domestic Actors and International Institutions .............................................. 4 1.2 The Forgotten Nexus .............................................................................................. 8 1.3 The Argument: Regional Organizations and Democratic Transitions ........12 1.3.1 lOs and the Liberalization