INNER THAMES ESTUARY AIRPORT FEASIBILITY STUDY 2 OPERATIONAL FEASIBILITY AND ATTITUDES TO MOVING TO AN ESTUARY AIRPORT Prepared for Airports Commission 10th July 2014 LeighFisher Limited Registered Office: 1180 Eskdale Road, Winnersh, Wokingham, RG41 5TU Registered in England No: 2591354 This document has been prepared by LeighFisher Ltd in its professional capacity as consultants in accordance with the terms and conditions of LeighFisher’s contract with the commissioning party (the “Client”). Regard should be had to those terms and conditions when considering and/or placing any reliance on this document. No part of this document may be copied or reproduced by any means without prior written permission from LeighFisher. If you have received this document in error, please destroy all copies in your possession or control and notify LeighFisher. 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INTRODUCTION 1-1 2. FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT 2-1 2.1 Introduction 2-1 2.2 Overview of Flood Risk 2-1 2.2.1 Protection of the Airport and Associated Development from Flooding 2-1 2.2.2 Potential Impact on Tidal Levels 2-2 2.2.3 Climate Change and Uncertainty 2-2 2.3 Policy and Legislative Context 2-2 2.3.1 Thames Estuary 2100 Plan 2-2 2.3.2 Legislation and National Planning Policy Framework 2-3 2.3.3 Baseline Flood Zones 2-4 2.4 Flood Risk Mitigation 2-5 2.5 Hydraulic Modelling 2-5 2.6 Case Studies 2-6 2.6.1 Hong Kong International airport 2-6 2.6.2 Incheon International Airport, Seoul, South Korea 2-7 2.6.3 Changi Airport, Singapore 2-7 2.6.4 San Francisco International Airport 2-8 2.6.5 Schiphol Airport, The Netherlands 2-8 2.6.6 Flood risk and mitigation at other major airports 2-8 2.7 Review of Proposed Schemes 2-9 2.7.1 Issues Common to All Proposals 2-9 2.7.2 Foster + Partners 2-9 2.7.3 Transport for London 2-9 2.7.4 Metrotidal Tunnel and Thames Reach Airport Ltd 2-10 2.7.5 IAAG 2-10 2.8 Conclusions 2-11 3. FOG EVENTS 3-1 3.1 Introduction 3-1 3.2 Types of Fog 3-1 3.2.1 Coastal Fog 3-1 3.2.2 Radiation Fog 3-1 3.3 Impact of Fog on Airport Operations 3-1 3.4 Approach to Analysis 3-2 3.5 Fog Analysis Results 3-3 3.5.1 Total Number of fog Events 3-3 3.5.2 Fog Events by Type 3-3 3.5.3 Fog Events by Month 3-3 3.5.4 Fog Events by Time of Day 3-4 3.5.5 Fog Events by Duration 3-5 3.6 Conclusions 3-6 4. CROSS-WINDS AND WINDS 4-1 4.1 Introduction 4-1 4.2 Background 4-1 4.3 Approach 4-1 Airports Commission Inner Thames Estuary Feasibility Study i 10 July 2014 4.4 Results 4-1 4.4.1 Shoeburyness Wind Rose Data, 2004-2013 4-1 4.4.2 Heathrow Wind Rose Data, 2004-2013 4-2 4.4.3 Gatwick Wind Rose Data, 2004-2013 4-3 4.4.4 Shoeburyness Seasonal Wind Rose Data from 2004-2013 4-3 4.5 Conclusions 4-4 5. BIRD STRIKE RISK 5-1 5.1 Introduction 5-1 5.1.1 The Author 5-1 5.2 Background 5-1 5.3 Principles of Birdstrike Risk Assessment for New Airports 5-3 5.4 Schemes under Consideration 5-5 5.4.1 General Birdstrike Risk for any Airport Located on the Thames Estuary 5-6 5.4.2 Factors Affecting Birdstrike Risk at a Coastal Airport 5-6 5.5 Outline Evaluation of the Proposed Schemes 5-8 5.5.1 IAAG 5-8 5.5.2 Foster + Partners 5-9 5.5.3 Metrotidal Mid-Range 5-9 5.5.4 TfL 5-9 5.6 Likely Mitigation Requirements 5-10 5.6.1 On Airfield 5-10 5.6.2 Off Airfield 5-10 5.6.3 Compensation for Habitat Lost 5-12 5.7 Conclusion 5-12 6. SS RICHARD MONTGOMERY 6-1 6.1 Introduction 6-1 6.2 History 6-1 6.3 Current State 6-2 6.4 Risks Associated with the Wreck 6-5 6.5 Risks Resulting from Airport Construction and Operation 6-5 6.6 Risk Posed to the Airport 6-6 6.7 Possible Responses 6-7 6.8 Conclusion 6-8 7. AIRSPACE IMPLICATIONS 7-1 8. ENERGY FACILITIES 8-1 8.1 Introduction 8-1 8.2 Energy Facilities on the Isle of Grain 8-1 8.3 Power Stations 8-2 8.3.1 Current Status and Future Plans 8-2 8.3.2 Impact of Airport Development 8-3 8.4 Electricity Interconnector 8-4 8.5 Grain LNG 8-4 8.5.1 Background 8-4 8.5.2 Location of the Site 8-5 Airports Commission Inner Thames Estuary Feasibility Study ii 10 July 2014 8.5.3 Planned Development of Grain 8-5 8.6 Background on LNG 8-6 8.7 LNG’s Safety Record 8-7 8.8 Grain LNG Safety 8-7 8.9 Risks Resulting from Potential Airport Development 8-9 8.10 Role of Grain LNG in Importing and Supplying Natural Gas to the UK 8-11 8.10.1 Grain LNG’s Importation role 8-11 8.10.2 Grain’s LNG Storage Role 8-12 8.11 Potential Alternatives to Grain LNG 8-13 8.12 Conclusions 8-14 9. TRANSITION TO A NEW HUB AIRPORT 9-1 9.1 Introduction 9-1 9.2 Commercial Agreements 9-1 9.2.1 Agreements with Airports 9-1 9.2.2 Agreements with Airlines 9-3 9.2.3 Agreements with Other Entities 9-6 9.3 Workforce Relocation 9-7 9.3.1 Existing Airport Workforces 9-7 9.3.2 Issues with Transition 9-8 9.3.3 Summary 9-10 9.4 International Examples of Transition 9-10 9.4.1 Overnight Transfer 9-10 9.4.2 Staged Transfer 9-11 9.5 Other issues 9-12 9.6 Conclusion 9-13 10. ATTITUDES TO MOVING TO A NEW HUB AIRPORT 10-1 10.1 Introduction 10-1 10.2 Baseline Assumptions for the Survey 10-1 10.3 Airlines 10-2 10.3.1 Key Issues 10-2 10.3.2 Airport Charges 10-2 10.3.3 Location and Surface Access 10-3 10.3.4 Market Impacts 10-3 10.3.5 Staff Access and Relocation 10-4 10.3.6 Deliverability 10-4 10.3.7 Transition 10-4 10.3.8 Financing 10-5 10.3.9 Night Flights 10-5 10.3.10 Opportunities 10-5 10.4 Businesses 10-6 10.4.1 Uncertainty 10-6 10.4.2 Cost 10-6 10.4.3 Relocation 10-6 10.4.4 Surface Access and Location 10-8 10.4.5 Land and Property Values 10-8 10.4.6 Opportunities 10-9 10.5 Passengers 10-9 Airports Commission Inner Thames Estuary Feasibility Study iii 10 July 2014 10.5.1 Surface Access 10-9 10.5.2 Cost 10-10 10.5.3 Travel Preferences 10-10 10.6 Airports 10-10 10.6.1 Passenger Traffic Forecasts 10-11 10.6.2 Asset Management 10-11 10.6.3 Employment and Resourcing 10-11 10.6.4 Local Economy 10-12 10.6.5 Financing 10-12 10.6.6 Opportunities 10-12 10.7 Conclusions 10-12 11.