Task 2 – Existing Conditions A Review of Market Conditions, Transit Services, and Opprotunities February 6, 2020 Prepared for: Antelope Valley Transit Authority Prepared by: Stantec Transit Advisory Services TASK 2 – EXISTING CONDITIONS Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................ I ABBREVIATIONS .................................................................................................................... IV BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................. 1 ABOUT AVTA ................................................................................................................ 2 PEER ANALYSIS .......................................................................................................... 5 PERFORMANCE METRICS ........................................................................................... 6 FIXED-ROUTE ............................................................................................................... 7 Ridership ........................................................................................................ 7 Service Provided ............................................................................................ 9 Service Productivity ...................................................................................... 10 Financial Performance ................................................................................. 11 DEMAND RESPONSE OR DIAL-A-RIDE ......................................................................15 Ridership ...................................................................................................... 15 Service Provided .......................................................................................... 17 Service Productivity ...................................................................................... 18 Financial Performance ................................................................................. 19 COMMUTER SERVICE .................................................................................................23 Ridership ...................................................................................................... 23 Service Provided .......................................................................................... 24 Service Productivity ...................................................................................... 25 Financial Performance ................................................................................. 26 PEER ANALYSIS SUMMARY .......................................................................................28 Fixed Route Service ..................................................................................... 28 Demand-Response Service ......................................................................... 28 Commuter Service ....................................................................................... 29 MARKET CONDITIONS ................................................................................................30 RECIPE FOR RIDERSHIP ............................................................................................30 ABOUT THE ANTELOPE VALLEY ................................................................................31 POPULATION DENSITY ...............................................................................................34 EMPLOYMENT DENSITY .............................................................................................36 MINORITY POPULATIONS ...........................................................................................37 HOUSEHOLD INCOME ................................................................................................38 SENIOR POPULATIONS ..............................................................................................39 ZERO-VEHICLE HOUSEHOLDS ..................................................................................40 TRANSIT MODE SHARE FOR COMMUTING ...............................................................41 SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................42 AVTA LOCAL SERVICE DELIVERY ............................................................................43 SYSTEM-LEVEL ANALYSIS .........................................................................................47 TASK 2 – EXISTING CONDITIONS Overall Trends and Network Performance.................................................... 47 Weekday Analysis ........................................................................................ 50 Weekend Analysis ........................................................................................ 58 ROUTE PROFILES .......................................................................................................66 Route 1: Lancaster/Palmdale ....................................................................... 67 Route 2: East/West Palmdale via Avenue R and Route 3: East/West Palmdale via Avenue S ................................................................................ 68 Route 4: Eastside Lancaster ........................................................................ 71 Route 5: Quartz Hill via Avenue L ................................................................ 72 Route 7: Rancho Vista/Lancaster ................................................................. 73 Route 8: Antelope Valley College ................................................................. 75 Route 9: Quartz Hill via Avenue H ................................................................ 77 Route 11: East/West Lancaster via Avenue I and Route 12: East/West Lancaster via Avenue J ................................................................................ 78 Route 50: Lake LA/Lancaster ....................................................................... 80 Route 51: Lake LA/Palmdale ........................................................................ 81 Route 52: Littlerock/Pearblossom ................................................................. 81 Supplemental routes 94, 97, and 98 ............................................................. 82 AVTA COMMUTER SERVICE DELIVERY ...................................................................86 BUILDING COMMUTER RIDERSHIP ...........................................................................86 OVERVIEW ...................................................................................................................88 SYSTEM-LEVEL ANALYSIS .........................................................................................90 ROUTE-LEVEL ANALYSIS ...........................................................................................91 CAPACITY UTILIZATION ..............................................................................................93 AM Peak Period ........................................................................................... 93 PM Peak Period ........................................................................................... 95 Midday ......................................................................................................... 96 COMMUTER SERVICE CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES ..................................97 DIAL-A-RIDE ................................................................................................................99 SYSTEM-LEVEL ANALYSIS .........................................................................................99 CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR DAR ..................................................... 102 OTHER MOBILITY SERVICES AND CONNECTIONS ............................................... 103 KERN COUNTY .......................................................................................................... 103 TNCS .......................................................................................................................... 103 CYCLING AND ACTIVE TRANSPORT ....................................................................... 103 METRO ....................................................................................................................... 104 METROLINK ............................................................................................................... 104 ACCESS PARATRANSIT ............................................................................................ 105 Antelope Valley Service ............................................................................. 105 TAXIS AND OTHER .................................................................................................... 107 FARES ........................................................................................................................ 108 EXISTING FARE STRUCTURE AND POLICY ............................................................ 108 TASK 2 – EXISTING CONDITIONS Local Fixed-Route Services ....................................................................... 108 Fixed-Route Fare Comparison with Peers .................................................. 109 DAR Services ............................................................................................. 111 Commuter Services .................................................................................... 111 Special Fare Programs