Mount Vernon, New York Demographic, Market, and Development Study Prepared November 04, 2011 This study was prepared for the City of Mount Vernon and funded by a grant from the New York State Department of State provided under Title 3 of the Environmental Protection Fund. Outline Pg 2. Executive Summary and Objectives Pg 6. Mount Vernon Market Study Overview The Opportunity The Challenge Pg 24. Demographic Overview Mount Vernon in Comparison to Neighboring Areas Pg 32. Economic and Market Snapshot Economic Overview Real Estate Overview Pg 52. Retail Gap Analysis Identification of Unmet Potential Pg 62. Trade Areas Downtown Mount Vernon in Comparison to Similar Urban Retail Districts Pg 77. Development Opportunities, Transit-Oriented Station Area Soft Site Analysis Market Support for Development Pg 108. Taking Action Key Recommendations The Experience Pg 127. Appendix HR&A Advisors, Inc. Mount Vernon Demographic, Market, and Development Study| 1 Outline Pg 2. Executive Summary and Objectives Pg 6. Mount Vernon Market Study Overview The Opportunity The Challenge Pg 24. Demographic Overview Mount Vernon in Comparison to Neighboring Areas Pg 32. Economic and Market Snapshot Economic Overview Real Estate Overview Pg 52. Retail Gap Analysis Identification of Unmet Potential Pg 62. Trade Areas Downtown Mount Vernon in Comparison to Similar Urban Retail Districts Pg 77. Development Opportunities, Transit-Oriented Station Area Soft Site Analysis Market Support for Development Pg 108. Taking Action Key Recommendations The Experience Pg 127. Appendix HR&A Advisors, Inc. Mount Vernon Demographic, Market, and Development Study| 2 Executive Summary . Mount Vernon possesses significant assets that would appeal to developers and investors . It has higher household incomes than similar urban areas in the New York region . It is one of the most densely populated cities in the United States . It is strategically situated close to New York City, and has three Metro North Stations and good highway access . There are multiple opportunities for Transit Oriented Development in the vicinity of Mount Vernon East and Mount Vernon West . Mount Vernon’s Downtown retail district currently underperforms comparable areas . Mount Vernon lacks a significant presence of national retailers (who hold credit leases) in its Downtown retail district . Storefront vacancies are common in the Downtown area . Mount Vernon has a retail gap of over $205M in unmet spending potential that could be addressed through a strategically focused retail program Downtown . This study was prepared for the New York State Department of State with funds provided under Title 3 of the Environmental Protection Fund. HR&A Advisors, Inc. Mount Vernon Demographic, Market, and Development Study| 3 Objective: Identify the “first moves” for development in the Mount Vernon market that will achieve desired long-term results Successfully leverage City’s assets Achieve increased diversity of residential and commercial environments within the City Increase retail activity HR&A Advisors, Inc. Mount Vernon Demographic, Market, and Development Study| 4 HR&A’s Analytic Process HR&A Advisors, Inc. Mount Vernon Demographic, Market, and Development Study| 5 Outline Pg 2. Executive Summary and Objectives Pg 6. Mount Vernon Market Study Overview The Opportunity The Challenge Pg 24. Demographic Overview Mount Vernon in Comparison to Neighboring Areas Pg 32. Economic and Market Snapshot Economic Overview Real Estate Overview Pg 52. Retail Gap Analysis Identification of Unmet Potential Pg 62. Trade Areas Downtown Mount Vernon in Comparison to Similar Urban Retail Districts Pg 77. Development Opportunities, Transit-Oriented Station Area Soft Site Analysis Market Support for Development Pg 108. Taking Action Key Recommendations The Experience Pg 127. Appendix HR&A Advisors, Inc. Mount Vernon Demographic, Market, and Development Study| 6 The Opportunity Mount Vernon offers a suite of advantages to development Transportation access Proximity to NYC & Westchester communities Population density Residential and commercial center Authentic urban fabric Cultural identity Redevelopment opportunities Source: ESRI; HR&A HR&A Advisors, Inc. Mount Vernon Demographic, Market, and Development Study| 7 Transportation Access Mount Vernon has excellent highway, rail, and bus transportation . Destinations in New York City and Westchester County are easily accessible from Mount Vernon . Road: The Bronx River Parkway, The Hutchinson River Parkway, The Cross County Parkway; I-87 and I- 95 less than one mile from city border . Rail: Three MetroNorth Stations – Mount Vernon East, Mount Vernon West, and Fleetwood; The 2 & 5 MTA subway trains are within a 10-minute walk from the Mount Vernon border . Bus: 10 Bee-Line Bus routes serve the City Source: Mount Vernon Draft Comprehensive Plan HR&A Advisors, Inc. Mount Vernon Demographic, Market, and Development Study| 8 Proximity to New York City Commute time to Midtown Manhattan is less than 25 minutes 60 60 60 30 30 30 Mount Vernon East: Mount Vernon West: Fleetwood: 23 minutes 22 minutes 24 minutes Estimated non-rush hour drive time: 27 Minutes Estimated rush hour drive time: 40 Minutes Source: ESRI; HR&A HR&A Advisors, Inc. Mount Vernon Demographic, Market, and Development Study| 9 Proximity to Westchester Communities Mount Vernon is close to some of the country’s wealthiest communities Source: Mount Vernon Comprehensive Plan Working Draft HR&A Advisors, Inc. Mount Vernon Demographic, Market, and Development Study| 10 Population Density Mount Vernon is one of the most densely populated cities in the country Rank Amongst Cities with 2000 Population City State 2000 Population > 50,000 per Square Mile 1 Union City New Jersey 52,972 2 New York New York 26,401 3 Passaic New Jersey 21,803 4 Huntington Park California 20,251 5 Somerville Massachusetts 18,867 6 East Orange New Jersey 17,775 7 Paterson New Jersey 17,674 8 San Francisco California 16,633 9 Jersey City New Jersey 16,093 10 Cambridge Massachusetts 15,765 11 Mount Vernon New York 15,688 12 Hempstead New York 15,365 . 28 Newark New Jersey 11,494 . 31 Philadelphia Pennsylvania 11,233 . 33 Trenton New Jersey 11,153 . 35 Bayonne New Jersey 10,991 36 Yonkers New York 10,847 . 45 Elizabeth New Jersey 9,865 . 80 New Rochelle New York 6,973 . 127 White Plains New York 5,415 . HR&A Advisors, Inc. 295 StamfordMount Connecticut Vernon Demographic,3,102 Market, and Development Study| 11 Source: Demographia; U.S. Census Bureau Residential and Commercial Center Mount Vernon is not merely a bedroom community Note: Total population reflects 2009 population as estimated by the U.S. Census’s American Community Survey Source: Mount Vernon Comprehensive Plan Working Draft HR&A Advisors, Inc. Mount Vernon Demographic, Market, and Development Study| 1212 The authentic character and urban fabric of the Gramatan Ave. retail corridor is a key advantage that will rise in importance as the market continues to rediscover walkable urban places HR&A Advisors, Inc. Mount Vernon Demographic, Market, and Development Study|13 13 Opportunity to Build Upon Cultural Heritage to Attract Tourists Mount Vernon could better position itself to attract tourists . Mount Vernon does not have an established presence on trip-planning websites, and Westchester County’s Tourism materials pay little heed to the City. Mount Vernon could do more to highlight the City’s rich cultural heritage in music and entertainment. St. Paul’s Church National Historic Site could be a catalyst for other tourist activity. Mount Vernon’s lack of hotels and catering facilities is a constraint on attracting visitors. Trip Planning Websites Westchester Tourism Map HR&A Advisors, Inc. Mount Vernon Demographic, Market, and Development Study| 14 Cultural Heritage Mount Vernon has been the home of many American Icons HR&A Advisors, Inc. Mount Vernon Demographic, Market, and Development Study|15 15 Redevelopment Opportunities Transit-oriented development is the City’s key development opportunity . Transit-oriented development (TOD) on underutilized properties adjacent to Mount Vernon’s MetroNorth stations can capture demand for residential, office, and retail development . TOD can generate critical mass catalyzing further development in the neighborhood HR&A Advisors, Inc. Mount Vernon Demographic, Market, and Development Study| 16 The Opportunity Resident and worker retail spending potential is significant Total: $475million * Note: Excludes workers who also live in Mount Vernon to avoid double-counting Source: ESRI; BLS; ICSC; ULI; HR&A Analysis HR&A Advisors, Inc. Mount Vernon Demographic, Market, and Development Study| 1717 The Opportunity 40% of resident and worker spending occurs outside Mount Vernon… $475 Million: $285 Million: Resident & Retail Worker Spending Spending in Potential Mount Vernon Source: ESRI; BLS; ICSC; ULI; HR&A Analysis HR&A Advisors, Inc. Mount Vernon Demographic, Market, and Development Study|18 18 The Opportunity …Resulting in substantial unmet retail potential $205 Million: Untapped Retail Potential in Mount Vernon Note: Untapped Retail Potential is greater than the difference between Spending Potential and Retail Spending highlighted on the previous page because categories where Retail Spending exceeds Spending Potential are categorized as having 0 unmet potential rather than negative unmet potential Source: ESRI; BLS; ICSC; ULI; HR&A Analysis HR&A Advisors, Inc. Mount Vernon Demographic, Market, and Development Study| 1919 The Challenge Mount Vernon’s potential is constrained