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Reducing Attrition in Selected Air Force Training Pipelines Thomas Manacapilli, Carl F. Matthies, Louis W. Miller, Paul Howe, P. J. Perez, Chaitra M. Hardison, Hugh G. Massey, Jerald Greenberg, Christopher Beighley, Carra S. Sims Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited PROJECT AIR FORCE The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract FA7014-06-C-0001. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Reducing attrition in selected Air Force training pipelines / Thomas Manacapilli ... [et al.]. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-5261-2 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Airmen—United States—Training of. 2. United States. Air Force—Officers—Training of. 3. United States. Air Force. Air Education and Training Command. 4. Technical education—United States. 5. Military education—United States. I. Manacapilli, Thomas. UG638.R43 2012 358.4'150973—dc23 2011050774 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2012 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/ permissions.html). Published 2012 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface The U.S. Air Force has a continuing interest in reducing high rates of attrition and training- block failures (known as washbacks, in which portions of training must be repeated) during initial skills training. High attrition requires a significantly greater input into the schoolhouses, increasing training and recruiting costs. High washback rates reduce the capacity of the school- houses by requiring that seats be set aside for students who need to retake training blocks, and such rates incur greater costs by increasing training time. The U.S. Air Force (USAF) Direc- torate of Force Management Policy (AF/A1P) tasked the RAND Corporation to investigate enlisted USAF specialties with high attrition and washback rates. The research described in this report extended over two years, divided into two phases. The first phase was the investigation of five career fields defined by the following Air Force specialty codes (AFSCs): 1C1X1, air traffic control (ATC); 1C2X1, combat control (CCT); 1T2X1, pararescue (PJ); 2A6X2, aerospace ground equipment (AGE); and 3E8X1, explosive ordnance disposal (EOD). This research was conducted as part of a fiscal year (FY) 2008 umbrella study called “Enhanced Testing and Screening for High Value and High Attrition Programs.” The second phase continued the investigation into four other career fields: AFSCs 1N0X1, operations intelligence; 1N4X1, network intelligence analysis; 1N3X4X, Far East lin- guist; and 1N3X5X, Middle East linguist. This research was conducted as part of an FY 2009 umbrella study, “Personnel Selection and Screening.” Over the course of the research, RAND researchers briefed numerous senior decisionmakers on its findings. Consequently, many of the recommendations have been or are in the process of being implemented. The report credits the Air Force for changes made through 2010 but does not include changes made after 2010. This report should be of interest to USAF leaders and staffs concerned with reducing attrition in initial skills training. The research reported here was sponsored by AF/A1P with support from the Air Educa- tion and Training Command Directorate of Operations (AETC/A2/A3) and conducted within the Manpower, Personnel, and Training Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF). RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF pro- vides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and cyber forces. iii iv Reducing Attrition in Selected Air Force Training Pipelines Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. Additional information about PAF is available on our Web site: http://www.rand.org/paf/ Contents Preface ........................................................................................................... iii Figures ........................................................................................................... ix Tables ............................................................................................................ xi Summary .......................................................................................................xiii Acknowledgments ............................................................................................ xxi Abbreviations ................................................................................................ xxiii CHAPTER ONE Introduction ..................................................................................................... 1 Background ....................................................................................................... 1 Objective .......................................................................................................... 2 Training Process .................................................................................................. 3 Analysis Approach ............................................................................................... 4 Review of Extant Literature and Existing Efforts .......................................................... 5 Interviews and Site Visits ..................................................................................... 6 Database Analysis .............................................................................................. 7 Organization of the Report ..................................................................................... 9 CHAPTER TWO Air Traffic Control, AFSC 1C1X1 ..........................................................................11 Overview .........................................................................................................11 Notable Factors ..................................................................................................12 Data Analysis ....................................................................................................13 Summary .........................................................................................................13 Recent Air Force Actions .......................................................................................14 CHAPTER THREE Combat Control, AFSC 1C2X1 .............................................................................15