Syracuse University SURFACE Dissertations - ALL SURFACE 6-1-2014 The Dynamics of Violent Escalation and De-escalation: Explaining Change in Islamist Strategies in Egypt and Indonesia Ioana Emilia Matesan Syracuse University Follow this and additional works at: https://surface.syr.edu/etd Recommended Citation Matesan, Ioana Emilia, "The Dynamics of Violent Escalation and De-escalation: Explaining Change in Islamist Strategies in Egypt and Indonesia" (2014). Dissertations - ALL. 60. https://surface.syr.edu/etd/60 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the SURFACE at SURFACE. It has been accepted for inclusion in Dissertations - ALL by an authorized administrator of SURFACE. For more information, please contact [email protected]. ABSTRACT The main goal of this project is to illuminate when, how and why Islamist groups change what tactics they employ and legitimize in dealing with the political system. The study is driven by two main research questions: First, how does change happen within Islamist organizations? Second, what causal mechanisms underlie violent escalation and de-escalation? The project argues that Islamist groups are both principled and strategic, and that their evolution is determined by the interaction of five factors: ideology, policy convergence, government policies towards the organization, public norms of resistance and organizational dynamics. Incentives for action are derived from the founding principles of the organization, the extent to which government domestic and foreign policies are convergent with the vision and goals of the group, and the level of political inclusion and toleration by the regime. The ways in which these incentives for action translate into particular strategies depends on organizational dynamics and on the prevalent norms of resistance. The study examines the development of four groups: the Muslim Brotherhood (Egypt), Al-Gama’a Al-Islamiyyah (Egypt), the Darul Islam (Indonesia), and al-Jama’a al-Islamiyyah (Indonesia). The analysis employs process-tracing and counterfactual analysis to examine how the process of change occurred, and what causal mechanisms lead to violent escalation or de- escalation in the four organizations. Extending the logic of principled and strategic adjustment to non-violent Islamist groups, the discussion also provides some preliminary insights into the political oscillations and considerations regarding the appeal of the political process in the cases of the Muslim Brotherhood, al-Gama’a al-Islamiyyah, al-Jama’a al-Islamiyyah, as well as the Justice and Prosperity Party (PKS) and the Nahdlatul Ulama in Indonesia. The empirical analysis finds that the process of violent escalation is driven by the logic of grievances. Government repression, low policy convergence and salient threats to the Muslim community lead to escalating grievances. These grievances are aggravated by the pervasiveness of violent norms of resistance and by intra-organizational competition over authority. In such a context, any perceived external aggression can serve as a catalyst for violent escalation. There is a powerful slippery slope of politicization and militarization that can lead to the acceptance and adoption of violent tactics, as well as to a shift from foreign targets to domestic political actors and ultimately civilians. Revenge and fear, as well as a sense of mistrust of the government and betrayal by the national leadership are powerful causal mechanisms of violent escalation. De-escalation primarily follows the logic of disillusionment. An organizational crisis and widespread public condemnation of the group can lead to a re-evaluation of the cost of violence, and a re-thinking of the vision as a whole, which prompts the group to de-escalate its tactics. When groups have several exit options away from violence and public condemnation is not as acute, organizations may metamorphose into different entities that temporarily prioritize non- violent activism, without categorically rejecting violence as a possibility in the future. This project moves beyond the prevalent bifurcation of ideology and strategy in much of the literature on political violence, and offers an understanding of the Islamist groups under investigation as complex and adaptable organizations that are both principled and pragmatic. By examining the processes of both escalation and de-escalation, the analysis solves some of the theoretical puzzles regarding the role and impact of repression and organizational strength, and offers insights into the mixed effects of societal, organizational and governmental pressures. The study seeks to open new lines of inquiry that integrate insights from terrorism studies, comparative politics and the literature on conflict resolution and peace studies. THE DYNAMICS OF VIOLENT ESCALATION AND DE-ESCALATION: EXPLAINING CHANGE IN ISLAMIST STRATEGIES IN EGYPT AND INDONESIA By Ioana Emilia Matesan B.A. Economics and Political Science, Monmouth College 2001 M.A. Political Science, Arizona State University 2007 Dissertation Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science Syracuse University June 2014 Copyright © Ioana E. Matesan 2014 All Rights Reserved ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Writing this project has been a long and fulfilling journey that was made possible and has been greatly enriched by many individuals. First and foremost I would like to thank my advisor, Miriam Elman, for all the invaluable support, guidance and advice over the years. Her detailed feedback and constructive comments on my work have helped me grow intellectually and venture into new territories that I would not have thought to explore. She has been an incredible mentor, whose commitment to research and devotion to students are truly inspirational. I am also very grateful for the advice and support received from the other members of my dissertation committee: Colin Elman, Mehrzad Boroujerdi, Matt Cleary and Mark Woodward. Colin Elman and Matt Cleary have profoundly shaped my thinking about research, and their commitment to rigor and critical inquiry will continue to inspire both my writing and my teaching. Mehrzad Boroujerdi’s insights into the politics of the Middle East have broadened my perspectives and deepened my interest in the region. Professor Mark Woodward’s course on Religion and Violence motivated many questions that are driving my research, and I am very grateful that he agreed to serve on my committee as an outside reader, and share with me his sharp insights into the dynamics of Islamist groups in Indonesia. At various stages of the writing process, other colleagues and faculty members from Syracuse University have also offered helpful feedback, either individually or through the Political Science Research Workshop and the Goekjian Fellowship. I am particularly grateful to the comments from Kristi Andersen, Jon Hanson, Margaret Hermann, Seth Jolly, Brian Taylor and from all my friends and colleagues who have provided for an enriching and stimulating intellectual environment. I am also very thankful to Candy Brooks and Jacquie Meyer for all the v logistical and moral support over the years, and for helping me navigate through the bureaucratic aspects of graduate school. Perhaps the most gratifying aspect of this research has been undertaking field work in Egypt and in Indonesia. I am humbled and touched by the hospitality and generosity of all those who helped me find my way through the bustling streets of Cairo and Jakarta, who helped me gain access to relevant contacts and information, and who agreed to meet and talk with me, sharing their insights, their experiences and their aspirations. I hope my interpretation of events does our conversations justice, and can lead to additional fruitful dialogue in the future. For help with the research on Indonesia, I am particularly grateful to Evan Laksmana, Alex Arifianto, Hazel Margaretha, Yachya, as well as Rizal Sukma, Clara Joewono and Lina Alexandra from the Center for Strategic and International Studies. In Egypt, I greatly benefited from the generous help of Ashraf El-Sherif, Abdullah Erfan, Doha, and Ahmed E. Given the current vilification and persecution of the Muslim Brotherhood, I have decided to keep most of the interviews anonymous, even if at the time of the interview this was not requested. The development of this project and my rich interactions in the field were made possible by the generous financial support of the National Science Foundation and of Syracuse University, through the Moynihan Institute Goekjian Fellowship, the Roscoe Martin Research Grant, the Maxwell Dean’s summer fellowship, and the Department of Political Science Cohn Award and Dissertation Completion Fellowship. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. SES-1160391. I am grateful for their generous support, and of course, any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. vi Last but not least, my deepest felt gratitude extends to my family and friends, who give me strength and inspire me every day. I especially want to thank my parents for their unconditional love and support, and for always encouraging me to pursue my dreams and my passion. I would also like to express my profound gratitude to my partner, who patiently and selflessly encouraged me every step of the way, and who made me smile and helped