PERSPECTIVES ON RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY: THE GERASIMOV DOCTRINE AND WAR BY OTHER MEANS by Dustin Malm A thesis submitted to Johns Hopkins University in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Government Baltimore, Maryland August 2019 © 2019 Dustin Malm All Rights Reserved Abstract This thesis views interstate actions between the Russian Federation and its perceived adversaries through the lens of the so-called “Gerasimov Doctrine.” It traces the difference in origins of sovereignty between the United States and Russia in its various forms. After showing that Russian sovereignty relies on the stability of the state over individual liberties, this thesis dissects Russian nationalism as a foreign policy tool in Ukraine. Finally, this thesis applies the Gerasimov Doctrine across a swath of foreign policy interactions between the Russian Federation and its adversaries: Ukraine, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Through the Doctrine’s lens, this thesis finds that Russian foreign policy actions are inversely proportionate to the adversary state’s ability to create the potential for political upheaval in the Russian Federation. This thesis serves as a starting point from which future research can begin to quantitatively measure the impact of an adversary’s information operations. Primary Reader and Advisor: Dorothea Wolfson Readers: Donald N. Jensen and David Satter ii Contents Abstract .......................................................................................................................................... ii List of Tables ................................................................................................................................. v List of Figures ............................................................................................................................... vi Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 1 Chapter 1: A Dialectic of Self-Determination ........................................................................... 9 1.1 Abstract ............................................................................................................................... 9 1.2 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 10 1.3 Origins of Self-Determination ......................................................................................... 11 1.4 The United States ............................................................................................................. 13 1.5 The Russian Federation ................................................................................................... 17 1.6 Assessment ........................................................................................................................ 22 1.7 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................... 24 Chapter 2: Nationalism in Russian Foreign Policy ................................................................. 26 2.1 Abstract ............................................................................................................................. 26 2.2 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 27 2.3 Methodology ..................................................................................................................... 27 2.4 Literature Review ............................................................................................................. 29 2.2.1 Russian Defensive Nationalism................................................................................. 31 2.2.3 Russian Offensive Nationalism ................................................................................. 31 2.2.3 Nationalism from the Top Down .............................................................................. 32 2.2.4 Nationalism from The Ground Up ........................................................................... 33 2.3 Russian Foreign Policy Through a Nationalist Lens .................................................... 34 2.3.1 Protecting Historical Territory ................................................................................ 35 2.3.2 Cultural Similarities: The Risk to the Russian Idea .............................................. 36 2.3.3 Maintaining the Sphere of Influence ....................................................................... 38 2.3.4 Right of Self-Determination ...................................................................................... 40 2.4 What Does Nationalism Accomplish for Russia? .......................................................... 41 2.4.1 Russia's Quest for Validation ................................................................................... 42 2.4.2 Right to Protect Geopolitical Realignment ............................................................. 43 iii 2.4.3 Neo-Imperialism ........................................................................................................ 44 2.4.4 Controlling the Narrative ......................................................................................... 45 2.5 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................... 47 Chapter 3: Russian Interference and the Gerasimov Doctrine ............................................. 50 3.2 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 51 3.3 Literature Review ............................................................................................................. 54 3.4 The United States ............................................................................................................. 59 3.4.1 Russian Actions ........................................................................................................... 60 3.4.2 U.S. Responses............................................................................................................ 62 3.4.3 Effectiveness of the Gerasimov Doctrine ................................................................. 64 3.5 The United Kingdom ........................................................................................................ 66 3.5.1 Russian Actions .......................................................................................................... 68 3.5.2 U.K. Responses ........................................................................................................... 72 3.5.3 Effectiveness of the Gerasimov Doctrine ................................................................. 73 3.6 Ukraine .............................................................................................................................. 75 3.6.1 Russian Actions .......................................................................................................... 77 3.6.2 Ukrainian Responses ................................................................................................. 79 3.6.3 Effectiveness of the Gerasimov Doctrine ................................................................. 80 3.7 Evaluation ......................................................................................................................... 82 3.7.1 Methodology ............................................................................................................... 82 3.7.2 Analysis ....................................................................................................................... 83 3.7.3 Implications ................................................................................................................ 86 3.8 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................... 87 Conclusion: War by Other Means............................................................................................ 91 Chapter Review ....................................................................................................................... 92 Impacts ..................................................................................................................................... 98 Future Research .................................................................................................................... 102 Bibliography .............................................................................................................................. 105 Vita ............................................................................................................................................. 114 iv List of Tables Table 1: Russian Interference in Target Country According to the Gerasimov Doctrine ...... 84 Table 2: Effectiveness of Target Country Responses According to the Gerasimov Doctrine 85 v List of Figures Figure 1: Origins and Uses of Nationalism ............................................................................. 29 Figure 2: The Gerasimov Doctrine ......................................................................................... 53 Figure 3: Russian Interference in Target Country According to the Gerasimov Doctrine ..... 84 Figure 4: Effectiveness