ASSESSING EXPOSURE AND VULNERABILITY 10 March, 2014 SUBMITTED TO: Danish Hydrologic Institute (DHI), Singapore SUBMITTED BY: NEPAL DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE Shree durbar tole, Pulchowk, Lalitpur INTRODUCTION 1 CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................ 4 UNDERSTANDING OF THE TASK ................................................................................................................................ 4 STUDY OBJECTIVES ....................................................................................................................................................... 5 ROLE OF NDRI ................................................................................................................................................................ 5 STUDY AREA ................................................................................................................................................................... 6 CHAPTER II. ASSESSING EXPOSURE .................................................................................................................... 8 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................................. 8 EXPOSURE DATASETS ................................................................................................................................................... 9 CHAPTER III. ASSESSING VULNERABILTY .................................................................................................... 23 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................................................... 23 DAMAGE FUNCTION ................................................................................................................................................. 32 PEOPLE ................................................................................................................................................ 32 HOUSES ............................................................................................................................................... 40 AGRICULTURE DAMAGE ...................................................................................................................... 41 ROAD ................................................................................................................................................... 42 INDUSTRIAL AREA ............................................................................................................................... 44 REFRENCES .................................................................................................................................................................. 45 ANNEX ......................................................................................................................................................................... 46 INTRODUCTION 2 LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES Figure 1: Extent and primary features of the Sunsari – Morang Irrigation Project (SMIP) ................................. 4 Figure 2: Study Area ......................................................................................................................................................... 6 Figure 3: Population density in the study area .......................................................................................................... 10 Figure 4: Gender ratio in the study area ................................................................................................................... 11 Figure 5: Households in the study area ....................................................................................................................... 12 Figure 6: Household density in the study area .......................................................................................................... 13 Figure 7: Household size in the study area ................................................................................................................ 14 Figure 8: Land use map of the study area ................................................................................................................. 15 Figure 9: Settlements within SMIP command VDCs and at right and left banks of Saptakoshi River ............ 15 Figure 10: Land use map with settlements in the study area .................................................................................. 16 Figure 11: Road density based on ICIMOD geo-database ................................................................................... 19 Figure 12: Road density based on Department of Survey ..................................................................................... 20 Figure 13: River density index of the study area ..................................................................................................... 21 Figure 14: Disadvantage group in the study area ................................................................................................... 22 Figure 15: Direct Damage per Household in West Rapti River basin (NDRI, 2012) ......................................... 27 Figure 16: Yield in Metric tons per hectare for paddy in Morang and Sunsari district .................................... 30 Figure 17: Percentage damage of paddy productivity in different flood conditions in West Rapti Basin .. 30 Figure 18: Survival rate of curves after submergence ............................................................................................ 31 Figure 19: Damage functions to estimate percentage of rice crops yield loss due to flood ........................... 31 Figure 20: Depth damage function of the study area ............................................................................................. 36 Figure 21-a: Number of people losing lives and getting injured .......................................................................... 37 Figure 22: Depth damage function for different houses ......................................................................................... 40 Figure 23: Depth Damage Curve for Yield Loss ....................................................................................................... 42 Figure 24: The depth damage curve for car ............................................................................................................. 43 Figure 25: Depth Damage for Industrial Area .......................................................................................................... 44 Table 1: Salient features of SMIP ................................................................................................................................... 7 Table 2: Indicators for Exposure ..................................................................................................................................... 8 Table 3: Land use classification in SMIP VDC's.......................................................................................................... 16 Table 4: List of Health Facilities in Morang District .................................................................................................. 17 Table 5: List of Health Facilities in Sunsari District .................................................................................................... 18 INTRODUCTION 3 Table 6: DAG Group ...................................................................................................................................................... 22 Table 7: Flood inundation depth .................................................................................................................................. 25 Table 8: Degree of Flood Hazard to People ............................................................................................................ 26 Table 9: Percentage distribution of HH by their foundation of house/housing unit........................................... 27 Table 10: Percentage distribution of HH by their outer wall of house/housing unit ......................................... 27 Table 11: Percentage distribution of HH by roof of house/housing unit ............................................................. 27 Table 12: Direct damage function calculated for West Rapti River basin.......................................................... 28 Table 13: Paddy yield and its market value ............................................................................................................. 28 Table 14: Seasonal calendar for rice ......................................................................................................................... 28 Table 15: Phenology of Paddy .................................................................................................................................... 29 Table 16: Cropping pattern in Morang and Sunsari district (DADO, 2013/14) ............................................... 29 Table 17: Number of deaths and missing ................................................................................................................... 33 Table 18: Value of K(d) ................................................................................................................................................. 33 Table 19: Population density .......................................................................................................................................