Air Force Institute of Technology AFIT Scholar Theses and Dissertations Student Graduate Works 3-22-2012 Prototyping the use of Dispersion Models to Predict Ground Concentrations During Burning of Deployed Military Waste Val Oppenheimer Follow this and additional works at: https://scholar.afit.edu/etd Part of the Environmental Monitoring Commons Recommended Citation Oppenheimer, Val, "Prototyping the use of Dispersion Models to Predict Ground Concentrations During Burning of Deployed Military Waste" (2012). Theses and Dissertations. 1282. https://scholar.afit.edu/etd/1282 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Student Graduate Works at AFIT Scholar. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of AFIT Scholar. For more information, please contact [email protected]. PROTOTYPING THE USE OF DISPERSION MODELS TO PREDICT GROUND CONCENTRATIONS DURING BURNING OF DEPLOYED MILITARY WASTE THESIS Val Oppenheimer, Captain, USAF AFIT/GEM/ENV/12-M16 DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCE AIR UNIVERSITY AIR FORCE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION UNLIMITED The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or the United States Government. This material is declared a work of the United States Government and is not subject to copyright protection in the United States. i AFIT/GEM/ENV/12-M16 PROTOTYPING THE USE OF DISPERSION MODELS TO PREDICT GROUND CONCENTRATIONS DURING BURNING OF DEPLOYED MILITARY WASTE THESIS Presented to the Faculty Department of Systems and Engineering Management Graduate School of Engineering and Management Air Force Institute of Technology Air University Air Education and Training Command In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Engineering Management Val Oppenheimer, BS Captain, USAF March 2012 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION UNLIMITED. ii AFIT/GEM/ENV/12-M16 PROTOTYPING THE USE OF DISPERSION MODELS TO PREDICT GROUND CONCENTRATIONS DURING BURNING OF DEPLOYED MILITARY WASTE THESIS Val Oppenheimer, BS Captain, USAF Approved: //SIGNED// 8-Mar-2012 Lt Col Dirk P. Yamamoto, PhD (Chairman) Date //SIGNED// 8-Mar-2012 Lt Col William E. Sitzabee, PhD, PE (Member) Date //SIGNED// 8-Mar-2012 Alfred E. Thal, Jr., PhD (Member) Date iii AFIT/GEM/ENV/12-M16 Abstract United States military forces in Iraq and Afghanistan have often used open burning of solid waste as a means to achieve volume reduction and to minimize vector borne illnesses. Assessing exposures to burn pit emissions has proven challenging, requiring significant numbers of personnel and sampling equipment. This study examined the use of three common dispersion models to determine the feasibility of using software modeling to predict short-range exposures to burn pit emissions, in lieu of sole reliance on ground sampling. Four open burn tests of municipal solid waste were conducted at Tooele Army Depot, Utah. Aerial samples were collected above the burns to determine emission factors for CO2 and PM2.5. Three atmospheric dispersion modeling software packages, ALOHA, HPAC, and HYSPLIT, were populated with the emission factors to determine how well they predicted ground concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) at nearby monitoring stations. Results of this study show that ALOHA and HPAC did not accurately predict ground concentrations at the microscale resolution. HYSPLIT performed better than other models with more accurate predictions of CO2 for two of the four days. This limited testing suggests that more robust ground sampling is necessary to improve assessment of model performance. Additionally, more frequent input of accurate weather data will likely improve the predictive power of these models. iv Acknowledgments The authors acknowledge the dedicated efforts of Brian Gullett, Chris Pressley and Will Stevens of U.S. EPA, and Johanna Aurell (post-doctoral fellow of the National Research Council) for their field data collection efforts. Special thanks also go to ARCADIS-US for analytical support and the men and women at Tooele Army Depot, including Roger Hale, Darwin Jones, and Coy Christensen, who provided on-site logistical support during testing. Also, special thanks to Bill Carroll (Occidental Petroleum Corp.) for his plastics expertise and Rob Gribble (ISSI, Inc.) for providing aerostat and piloting skills for emissions sampling. I am very thankful to my thesis advisor, Lt Col Dirk Yamamoto, for his guidance and support on this thesis effort. I would also like to thank my friends and colleagues who provided the drive needed until completion. Finally, I would like to thank my parents without whom this project would not have been a success. Val Oppenheimer v Table of Contents Page Abstract .............................................................................................................................. iv Acknowledgments............................................................................................................... v List of Figures .................................................................................................................. viii List of Tables ...................................................................................................................... x I. Introduction ................................................................................................................ 1 Background ..................................................................................................................1 Problem Statement .......................................................................................................4 Research Questions ......................................................................................................4 Thesis Document Overview ........................................................................................5 II. Scholarly Article ....................................................................................................... 6 Abstract ........................................................................................................................6 Introduction ..................................................................................................................7 Open Burning .......................................................................................................... 7 Atmospheric Dispersion Models............................................................................. 8 Methods .....................................................................................................................11 Burn Testing.......................................................................................................... 11 Samples Collected ................................................................................................. 11 Emission Factors ................................................................................................... 13 Software Modeling................................................................................................ 14 Model Comparison................................................................................................ 14 Results and Discussion ..............................................................................................15 Emission Factors ................................................................................................... 15 Ground Sampling and Modeling Results .............................................................. 15 Model Improvements ............................................................................................ 23 Conclusion .................................................................................................................24 III. Conclusions ............................................................................................................. 28 Research Questions ....................................................................................................28 Strength and Limitations ............................................................................................30 Recommendations for Future Research .....................................................................31 Appendix A: Expanded Literature Review .................................................................. 34 Appendix B: Dispersion Model Comparison ............................................................... 49 vi Page Appendix C: Waste Characterization and Weather Data ............................................. 61 Appendix D: Additional Results .................................................................................. 66 Appendix E: Procedure Log.......................................................................................... 76 Bibliography ................................................................................................................. 85 vii List of Figures Page Figure 1: Simultaneous sampling using aerostat, crane, forklift, and ground-based sampling devices ............................................................................................................... 12 Figure 2: Ground Sample Locations ................................................................................