FUTURAMA 3 Selling techno-utopian mobility to save car dependency Peter Norton Department of Engineering and Society University of Virginia Durham April 24, 2019 1 Low tech can be smart. Milwaukee circa 1900 Mark Wagenbuur / Bicycle Dutch Cycling Professors Total traffic fatalities in the Netherlands, 1950-1970 Statistics Netherlands, via Bicycle Dutch. Total population, 1950: 10 million; 2010: 16.5 million. Statistics Netherlands, via Bicycle Dutch. Total population, 1950: 10 million; 2010: 16.5 million. traffic deaths per 100,000 persons: the Netherlands 3.4 (2013) USA 11.5 (2017) Statistics Netherlands, via Bicycle Dutch. Total population, 1950: 10 million; 2010: 16.5 million. 2 Data don’t drive. 3 magical futurism 1958 1964 1958 2019 1958 “Nissan today announced that the company will be ready with multiple commercially viable Autonomous Drive vehicles by 2020.” — Nissan press release, 2013 No new driver’s licenses will be needed after about 2020. Sunday 13 September 2015 Futurama 3 Futurama 3 AUTONORAMA 4 Autonorama FUTURAMA 1 FUTURAMA 2 FUTURAMA 2 FUTURAMA 3 AUTONORAMA FUTURAMA 3 AUTONORAMA FUTURAMA 3 AUTONORAMA FUTURAMA 3 AUTONORAMA FUTURAMA 3 AUTONORAMA Portland Cement Association (1948) number 1 Darin Givens / ATL Urbanist 5 public relations beats research 98.1% “There are several benefits from self-driving cars to society, drivers and pedestrians,” says Egil Juliussen, a principal analyst with IHS. “Accident rates will plunge to near zero for SDCs,” he said. “There are several benefits from self-driving cars to society, drivers and pedestrians,” says Egil Juliussen, a principal analyst with IHS. “Accident rates will plunge to near zero for SDCs,” he said. “There are several benefits from self-driving cars to society, drivers and pedestrians,” says Egil Juliussen, a principal analyst with IHS. “Accident rates will plunge to near zero for SDCs,” he said. “There are several benefits from self-driving cars to society, drivers and pedestrians,” says Egil Juliussen, a principal analyst with IHS. “Accident rates will plunge to near zero for SDCs,” he said. 6 isolating safety National Center for Health Statistics Motor vehicle fatalities: 11.5 per 100,000 National Center for Health Statistics Causes of deaths, worldwide, 2016 U.S. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Causes of deaths, worldwide, 2016 U.S. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation public safety public safety public health crash deaths public health crash deaths premature death associated with sedentary living crash deaths premature death associated with sedentary living crash deaths premature death associated with sedentary living Outside of a vehicle, a typical connected person generates 1 - 1.5 GB/day. Brian Krzanich, CEO Brian Krzanich, CEO 7 the balance of mobility If you could travel back in time 150 years to deliver either A or B to the people of that time, which would have more medical benefit? A B MRI systems sanitation techniques dialysis machines vaccines surgical stents antispetics 1996 1996 As in all Utopias, the right to have plans of any significance belonged only to the planners in charge. [They impose on the city] the dishonest mask of pretended order, achieved by ignoring or suppressing the real order that is struggling to exist and to be served. — Jane Jacobs, The Death and Life of Great American Cities (1961). As in all Utopias, the right to have plans of any significance belonged only to the planners in charge. [They impose on the city] the dishonest mask of pretended order, achieved by ignoring or suppressing the real order that is struggling to exist and to be served. — Jane Jacobs, The Death and Life of Great American Cities (1961). As in all Utopias, the right to have plans of any significance belonged only to the planners in charge. [They impose on the city] the dishonest mask of pretended order, achieved by ignoring or suppressing the real order that is struggling to exist and to be served. — Jane Jacobs, The Death and Life of Great American Cities (1961). The chemical war is never won, and all life is caught in its violent crossfire. — Rachel Carson, Silent Spring (1962) driverless driverless autonomous vehicles autonomous people more is less is more more is less is more more is less is more .