Allied Social Science Associations Program San Francisco, CA January 3–5, 2016 Contract negotiations, management and meeting arrangements for ASSA meetings are conducted by the American Economic Association. Participants should be aware that the media has open access to all sessions and events at the meetings. i Thanks to the 2016 American Economic Association Program Committee Members Robert Shiller, Chair David H. Autor Nicholas Barberis Ben Bernanke Markus Brunnermeier Raj Chetty John Geanakoplos Mark Gertler Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas Rachel Kranton Michael Kremer Alan Krueger Robert Mendelsohn Sendhil Mullainathan Cecelia Rouse Carl Shapiro Susan Wachter Ebonya Washington Cover Art—–“Dawn at the Gate” by Bill Merry. Bill Merry is the spouse of Julia Merry who is employed with the AEA. Bill Merry is the President of Herndon & Merry, Inc (Architectural Metal Design) located in Nashville, TN. ii Contents General Information............................... iv ASSA Hotels ................................... viii Listing of Advertisers and Exhibitors ................xxv ASSA Executive Officers.........................xxvii Summary of Sessions by Organization ...............xxx Daily Program of Events ............................1 Program of Sessions Saturday, January 2 .........................29 Sunday, January 3 ..........................32 Monday, January 4.........................143 Tuesday, January 5.........................272 Subject Area Index...............................353 Index of Participants . 356 iii General Information PROGRAM SCHEDULES A listing of sessions where papers will be presented and another covering activities such as business meetings and receptions are provided in this program. Admittance is limited to those wearing badges. Each listing is arranged chronologically by date and time of the activity. The hotel and room location for each session and function are indicated. CONVENTION FACILITIES Thirty hotels are being used for housing. Sessions and other convention functions are in the Hilton San Francisco Union Square (headquarters hotel), the Marriott Marquis San Francisco (co-headquarters hotel), and the Parc 55—a Hilton Hotel. A map of San Francisco indicating the locations of the hotels, an alphabetical listing of function rooms within the hotels, and hotel floor plans are in the next section of this book. Registration and Exhibits are located in the Hilton San Francisco Union Square, Headquarters Hotel. The Job Placement Service, Interview Tables are located the Marriott Marquis San Francisco (Co-headquarters hotel). Details follow. The $50 per night premium for the headquarters hotel is rebated to ASSA to help cover the cost of the meetings. REGISTRATION Everyone must register including speakers, discussants, and administrators who will be occupying an ASSA hotel room at the convention rate. Identification badges are required for admission to all sessions and activities. On-site and pre-registrants may pick up their registration packets in the Hilton San Francisco Union Square, “GB” Grand Ballroom Level, Salon A, Tower 2. On-site registration fee is $115. Full time student registration fee is $45. Pre-registration and On-site registration booths are open as follows: Saturday, January 2 2:00 pm to 9:00 pm* Sunday, January 3 7:45 am to 5:00 pm* Monday, January 4 8:00 am to 5:00 pm* Tuesday, January 5 8:00 am to 1:00 pm (Hilton Union Square, Green Room, Tower 2, “GB” Grand Ballroom Level) *On-site registration line closes fifteen minutes prior to closing each day. SPOUSES There is no spouse program. Spouses wishing to attend any of the meetings may register as a guest for $45. If your spouse needs an affiliation on his/her badge, he/she must register separately and pay the full fee. iv PROFESSIONAL PLACEMENT SERVICE Interview tables are located in the Marriott Marquis San Francisco (co-headquarters hotel), Golden Gate Ballroom, B2 Level. Hours are four full days, from 8:00 am to 5:00 pm. Everyone admitted to the interviewing tables (including interviewers) must register. There is no on-site placement registration nor will there be an on-site message exchange center. All correspondence should take place using email, including interview scheduling, prior to your arrival in San Francisco. However, on- site contact can be conducted by using the ASSA on-line hotel directory available at www.vanderbilt.edu/AEA and click on Annual Meeting, or you may download the mobile app. You may also check with the Disclosure Code Booth at the Hilton San Francisco Union Square, “GB” Grand Ballroom Level, Salon A, Tower 2 or in the Marriott Marquis San Francisco (co-headquarters hotel), Golden Gate Ballroom, B2 Level. ASSA does not provide computers on-site. The Professional Placement Service is conducted and sponsored free of charge through the efforts of the Illinois Department of Employment Security and AEA. EXHIBITS Exhibits are located in the Hilton San Francisco Union Square, “GB” Grand Ballroom Level, Salon B, Tower 2. The Exhibit area may be visited during the following hours: Sunday, January 3 9:00 am to 6:00 pm Monday, January 4 9:00 am to 5:00 pm Tuesday, January 5 9:00 am to 1:00 pm MESSAGE AND INFORMATION CENTER The Message and Information Center is located in the Hilton San Francisco Union Square, Grand Ballroom Foyer, “GB” Grand Ballroom Level, Tower 2, and is open during the following hours: Saturday, January 2 2:00 pm to 9:00 pm Sunday, January 3 8:00 am to 5:00 pm Monday, January 4 8:00 am to 5:00 pm Tuesday, January 5 8:00 am to 2:00 pm Messages may be transmitted in person or by telephone during these hours. The number to call is 415-923-7565. FEE AND INVITATION EVENTS The “Daily Program of Events” section of this program lists fee and invitation events, membership meetings, and other social functions in chronological order. Events for which a fee is charged or which may be attended by invitation only are noted. Tickets were sold to the following open events: AEA AFA Joint Luncheon Sunday, January 3, 12:30 pm / Hilton San Francisco Union Square, Continental Ballroom 5&6 ASE Presidential Breakfast Monday, January 4, 7:45 am Marriott Marquis San Francisco, Foothill G AEA Luncheon Honoring Monday, January 4, 12:30 pm the 2014 Nobel Laureates Hilton San Francisco Union Square, Continental Ballroom 5&6 v AREUEA Presidential Monday, January 4, 12:30 pm Luncheon Parc 55—a Hilton Hotel, Cyril Magnin II & III Tickets to each of these events were ordered on the preregistration form. Tickets may be available at the door if an event is not sold out. CONVENTION STAFF HEADQUARTERS Headquarters for the ASSA Convention is located in the Hilton San Francisco Union Square, Green Room, Tower 2, “GB” Grand Ballroom Level. The hours of operation are: Saturday, January 2 2:00 pm to 5:00 pm Sunday, January 3 8:00 am to 5:00 pm Monday, January 4 8:00 am to 5:00 pm Tuesday, January 5 8:00 am to 1:00 pm Headquarters staff should be alerted to any problems associated with the operation of the convention. Special notices concerning the program and room changes will be posted there. To reach Convention Headquarters by phone call 415-923-7564. An Information Desk is located in the Marriot Marquis San Francisco, North Registration A, Lower B2 Level, and in the Parc 55, Registration Desk, Level 4. The information tables are open Sunday and Monday from 8:00 am until 4:00 pm and on Tuesday from 8:00 am until 1:00 pm. PRESS Press Registration is located at the Hilton San Francisco Union Square, Green Room, Tower 2, “GB” Grand Ballroom Level. Hours are: Saturday, January 2 2:00 pm to 5:00 pm Sunday, January 3 7:30 am to 5:00 pm Monday, January 4 7:30 am to 5:00 pm Tuesday, January 5 7:30 am to 12:00 noon BUSINESS CENTERS Clift Hotel 2nd Floor 24 hours Fairmont San Francisco Terrace Level 24 hours Four Seasons Hotel SF 5th Floor 24 hours Grand Hyatt SF 2nd Floor 24 hours Hilton SF Union Square Tower 2, Lobby Level M–F, 6:30 am–7 pm, Sat & Sun 9 am–5 pm Hotel Nikko SF Lobby Level, UPS Store M–F 7 am–6 pm, Sat 10 am–2 pm, Sun closed Hotel Zelos Concierge service 24 hours Hyatt Regency SF Bay Level 24 hours InterContinental Mark Hopkins California Level 24 hours InterContinental SF 3rd Floor 24 hours JW Marriott SF Union Square Lobby, 3rd party 24 hours Marker San Francisco 2nd Floor 24 hours Marriott Marquis SF B2 Level, FedEx 24 hours Parc 55 A Hilton Hotel 4th Floor 24 hours Park Central Hotel 2nd Floor, 3rd party 24 hours vi Scarlet Huntington 2nd Floor 24 hours St. Regis San Francisco 3rd Level 24 hours Westin St Francis Mezzanine Level 24 hours All other business centers are located on the Lobby Level, open 24 hours, and may included charges for any usage. Hotel Zelos and Ritz Carlton do not have a business center, but use their concierge service for printing or business needs. Stanford Court Hotel does not have a business center, but has complimentary computers for their guests. Above hours are subject to change. DISCLOSURE CODES The Disclosure Code Information Booths are located in the Hilton San Francisco Union Square, “GB” Grand Ballroom Level, Salon A, Tower 2 and the Marriott Marquis San Francisco, Golden Gate Ballroom, B2 Level. You must know the disclosure code to obtain the room/suite number. Those were distributed by employers. You may also check on the AEA website at www.vanderbilt.edu/AEA and click on Annual Meeting, Disclosure Code Information. CHILDREN’S PROGRAM KiddieCorp will provide a professional children’s program at the Hilton San Francisco Union Square. Kiddiecorp has been in business since 1986. Team members are qualified child care specialists.