DECONSTRUCTING THE PC FREE-TO-PLAY MARKET 2015 FREE REPORT This version of the report focuses on the MOBA market For more, contact Cooper Waddell at [email protected] TERMS OF USE DECONSTRUCTING THE PC F2P MARKET - 2015 FREE REPORT THIS REPORT IS PROVIDED ON AN “AS IS” BASIS WITHOUT WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND, EITHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, OTHER THAN THOSE WARRANTIES WHICH ARE IMPLIED BY AND INCAPABLE OF EXCLUSION, RESTRICTION OR MODIFICATION UNDER THE LAWS APPLICABLE TO THE MASTER AGREEMENT FOR SERVICES. 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PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL TABLE OF CONTENTS DECONSTRUCTING THE PC F2P MARKET - 2015 FREE REPORT * SECTIONS THAT ARE IN GRAY WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE FULL REPORT. REPORT OVERVIEW 5 MOBA – MARKET LEADERS ANALYSIS 30 League of Legends 32 METHODOLOGY 6 DOTA 2 33 REPORT TERMINOLOGY 7 SMITE 34 General F2P Terms 7 Heroes of Newerth 35 F2P Genres 7 MOBA – FUTURE ENTRANTS 36 F2P Gameplay Terms 7 Heroes of the Storm 36 Monetization Terms 7 Infinite Crisis 37 eSports Terms 8 STRATEGY GENRE FRANCHISES 38 TCG – PLAYER DEMOGRAPHICS AND SPEND 39 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 9 TCG – PLAYER GAMING BEHAVIOR 40 Market Overview 10 TCG - MONETIZATION 41 Strategy Genre 10 Shooter Genre 11 TCG – MARKET LEADER ANALYSIS 45 MMORPG Genre 12 Hearthstone 45 eSports Genre 12 THE SHOOTER GENRE 46 MARKET OVERVIEW PC F2P 13 SHOOTER – HISTORY AND OVERVIEW 47 PC F2P Genres 14 SHOOTER – NA REVENUE AND USERS 48 The Western PC Gaming Market – F2P vs. B2P 15 PC F2P Player Demographics and Spend 16 SHOOTER – PLAYER DEMOGRAPHICS AND SPEND 49 SHOOTER – PLAYER GAMING BEHAVIOR 50 THE STRATEGY GENRE 22 SHOOTER – MONETIZATION 51 SHOOTER – MARKET LEADERS ANALYSIS 54 STRATEGY – HISTORY AND OVERVIEW 23 World of Tanks 55 STRATEGY – NA REVENUE & USERS 24 War Thunder 56 MOBA – PLAYER DEMOGRAPHICS AND SPEND 25 Team Fortress 2 57 Warframe 58 MOBA – PLAYER GAMING BEHAVIOR 26 SHOOTER – FUTURE ENTRANTS 59 MOBA – MONETIZATION 27 Overwatch 59 Dirty Bomb 60 3 FREE VERSION. © COPYRIGHT 2015. ELECTRONIC ENTERTAINMENT DESIGN AND RESEARCH. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL TABLE OF CONTENTS DECONSTRUCTING THE PC F2P MARKET - 2015 FREE REPORT * SECTIONS THAT ARE IN GRAY WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE FULL REPORT. THE MMORPG GENRE 61 SEGMENTED GENERAL GAMING BEHAVIOR 84 MMORPG – HISTORY AND OVERVIEW 62 MOBA – General Gaming Behavior 85 TCG – General Gaming Behavior 88 MMORPG – THE SUBSCRIPTION MODEL 63 Shooter – General Gaming Behavior 91 MMORPG – PLAYER DEMOGRAPHICS AND SPEND 64 MMORPG – General Gaming Behavior 94 MMORPG – PLAYER GAMING BEHAVIOR 65 MMORPG – MONETIZATION 66 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 97 MMORPG –MARKET LEADERS ANALYSIS 69 Star Wars: The Old Republic 70 The Lord of the Rings Online 71 ABOUT EEDAR 97 Neverwinter 72 RIFT 73 TERA 74 ArcheAge 75 MMORPG – FUTURE ENTRANTS 76 EverQuest Next 76 ESPORTS AND TWITCH.TV 77 The eSports Audience 78 Twitch Viewership 79 eSports Tournaments 82 4 FREE VERSION. © COPYRIGHT 2015. ELECTRONIC ENTERTAINMENT DESIGN AND RESEARCH. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL MARKET OVERVIEW PC F2P DECONSTRUCTING THE PC F2P MARKET - 2015 FREE REPORT THE NORTH AMERICAN PC GAMING MARKET – F2P VS. P2P THE PC MARKET - VIDEO GAME REVENUES PC F2P GENRE REVENUES [NA][B2P+F2P+SUBSCRIPTIONS] [NA][2014] LEGEND LEGEND PC RETAIL DIGITAL RETAIL F2P MMORPG MOBA SHOOTER TCG $4,000 $3,500 $1,292 $3,000 $1,111 $832 $2,500 $530 $406MM $98 $204 36% $475MM $2,000 43% REVENUE (MILLIONS) $1,500 $1,598 $1,714 $1,844 $1,991 $2,280 $2,362 $1,000 $500 $191MM 17% $560 $395 $372 $222 $172 $128 $0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 $47MM 4% SOURCE: EEDAR SOURCE: EEDAR The PC gaming market reached $3.6B in 2014, with nearly two thirds of that In the PC F2P Market, MMORPGs and MOBAs are the largest revenue drivers, revenue due to the digital sales of video game titles. PC retail revenue was only though Shooters and TCGs also account for significant market share. MMORPGs a fraction of that, at $172MM, while F2P games brought in some $1.11B. EEDAR are currently the largest segment, responsible for $475MM in 2014 while MOBA believes that the general trends within the PC market will continue as Digital sales games earned $406MM. The Shooter genre is comparatively smaller, accounting continue to rise at the expense of Retail. Yet the F2P market will be the fastest for 17% of revenues at $191MM, while TCGs were only at $47MM. growing segment, increasing to $1.29B by the end of 2015. 5 FREE VERSION. © COPYRIGHT 2015. ELECTRONIC ENTERTAINMENT DESIGN AND RESEARCH. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL MARKET OVERVIEW PC F2P DECONSTRUCTING THE PC F2P MARKET - 2015 FREE REPORT PC F2P SPEND SEGMENTATION [NA][PC][2014] 18% 16% Much like the mobile market, the revenue from PC F2P consumers is heavily concentrated within the top percentage of Payers. The top one 14% percent is responsible for 15% of the revenue, while the top 10 percent generates 62% of The 99th percentile accounts the total. Roughly half the audience, at 46%, for 15% of the revenue. haven’t spent any money within the past year. 12% For comparison, mobile gamers’ spend patterns are fairly similar. In that market, the highest- spending 6% generates 51% of the revenues. 10% 8% The top 10 percent are responsible for PERCENTAGE OF REVENUE PERCENTAGE almost two thirds (62%) of the revenue. 6% 4% The middle 44% of PC F2P users are responsible for 38% of the revenue. 2% Roughly 46% of users never spend a cent. 0% 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 PERCENTILE SOURCE: EEDAR 6 FREE VERSION. © COPYRIGHT 2015. ELECTRONIC ENTERTAINMENT DESIGN AND RESEARCH. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL STRATEGY OVERVIEW DECONSTRUCTING THE PC F2P MARKET - 2015 FREE REPORT STRATEGY – HISTORY AND OVERVIEW MOBA titles first appeared as a mod in Blizzard’s Warcraft III, gaining a dedicated TIMELINE OF IMPORTANT EVENTS cult following with maps such as Defense of the Ancients. Yet it wasn’t until 2009 when the genre truly arrived, as Riot’s League of Legends would debut along with 2003 – Defense of the Ancients first released as a mod map forWarcraft III S2’s Heroes of Newerth. While Newerth was initially a retail product and saw the 2009 – League of Legends debuts as a F2P title higher user base, League’s F2P business model ultimately proved triumphant. Riot’s gambit would be industry-defining, asLeague experienced exponential growth 2010 – Heroes of Newerth debuts as a retail title in the ensuing years to become the most played title in the world while also helping to usher in a market-wide acceptance of F2P. 2011 – Heroes of Newerth goes F2P Dota 2 unveiled Today, League of Legends dominates the genre with Dota 2 firmly established Dota 2 holds The International tournament as the second most popular. These two titles have a strong grasp on the genre’s Age of Empires Online released core users through constant content updates in conjunction with continued eSports support. Both titles have dedicated professional leagues, which have been 2013 – Dota 2 officially released immensely important in popularizing and legitimizing eSports as a medium. Turbine's Infinite Crisis Announced League of Legends’ LCS Finals draw 32MM viewers With the success of current MOBAs, a deluge of competitors have flooded the market. EEDAR believes that the most successful titles will be those that bring in a 2014 – Hi-Rez Studio’s SMITE is released new audience by delivering different experiences. The third most popular MOBA EA cancels upcoming MOBA Dawngate in NA, SMITE, introduced a third-person camera angle while melding the Crytek’s Arena of Fate announced MOBA and Shooter genres. Upcoming titles, such as Blizzard’s Heroes of the Gearbox's Battleborn announced Storm and Turbine’s Infinite Crisis,have a more team-based approach or a big name IP (the DC brand), respectively.