Newcastle-under-Lyme Borough Council and Stoke-on- Trent City Council Retail and Leisure Study Final Report Please Note: The report has been made accessible due to requirements and has been adapted by the Councils’ from the original report. This can be made available on request. July 2019 Contact Eastgate 2 Castle Street Castlefield Manchester M3 4LZ T: 0161 819 6570 E: [email protected] Job reference no: 33318 Contents 1.0 Introduction 2.0 Current Retail and Leisure Trends 3.0 Planning Policy and Legislative Context 4.0 Market Research: In Street Surveys 5.0 Market Research: Household Survey 6.0 Healthcheck Summary and Conclusions 7.0 Population and Expenditure 8.0 Assessment of Retail Needs 9.0 Assessment of Leisure Needs 10.0 Summary and Recommendations Appendices Appendix 1: Map of Study Area and Zones Appendix 2: Household Survey Results Appendix 3: In-Street Survey Positions Appendix 4: In-Street Survey Results Appendix 5: City Centre and Town Centre Healthcheck Assessments Appendix 6: Review of Lower Order Designated Centres Appendix 7: Quantitative Capacity Assessment Appendix 8: Distribution of Foodstores within the Joint Local Plan Area Appendix 9: Recommended Centre Boundaries 1.0 Introduction Instruction and Scope 1.1 Nexus Planning has been instructed by the joint client of Newcastle-under- Lyme Borough Council and Stoke-on-Trent City Council (hereafter referred to respectively as ‘NULBC’ and ‘SOTCC’) to undertake a new Retail and Leisure Study for the combined Local Plan area. The focus of the Update is to establish the current position in respect of the need for additional retail and leisure facilities in the two authority areas, and consider the vitality and viability of the Councils’ defined centres. 1.2 This Retail and Leisure Study will replace the Newcastle-under-Lyme Borough Council Retail & Leisure Study 2011 (undertaken by Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners) and the Stoke-on-Trent City Council Retail and Leisure Study 2014 (undertaken by WYG Planning). The Study will not only form part of the evidence base to help shape the emerging Joint Local Plan, it will also assist with the Councils’ consideration of planning applications for retail and leisure uses. 1.3 Detailed aims and objectives for the Study are set out at paragraph 5.1 of the supplied Invitation to Tender (‘ITT’). In brief summary, these comprise: • a quantitative assessment of capacity and the need for convenience and comparison goods retail floorspace across the period to 2033 (taking into account existing planning commitments); • a qualitative analysis of the existing convenience goods provision, including top-up shopping within defined centres; • an assessment of the need for additional commercial leisure facilities; • an overview of current and emerging market conditions and trends in the retail and leisure sector; • recommendations in respect of the retail network and the hierarchy of centres across the Joint Local Plan area; • a review of town centre boundaries and primary shopping areas; • an assessment of the potential for existing centres to accommodate any anticipated future retail or commercial leisure needs; • consideration of the scope for distinctive specialist retail roles to be developed and supported; and • the requirement to set a local impact threshold to assist with retail impact testing. 1.4 The Study is informed by new market research, including a household shopper survey of 1,500 households (undertaken by NEMS Market Research) across 13 separate zones. The zones are derived from those utilised in the previous NULBC and SOTCC Retail and Leisure Studies in order to allow comparison of changing market shares over time. The overall Study Area reflects the principal catchment area for retail and leisure facilities within the two authority areas. A plan of the Study Area is provided as Appendix 1, and the tabulated household survey results are provided as Appendix 2. The Study Area also includes parts of neighbouring authority areas of Cheshire East, Shropshire, Stafford and Staffordshire Moorlands, where residents sometimes look to facilities in Newcastle- under-Lyme and Stoke-on-Trent to meet at least some of their retail and leisure needs. As part of the Study, NEMS Market Research has also undertaken ‘in-street’ surveys in Newcastle-under-Lyme and Hanley centres in order to gauge shoppers’ views in respect of the performance of each centre. Structure of Report 1.5 Our report firstly provides an overview of prevailing retail and leisure trends, before then going on to consider the planning policy context for the Study. We then summarise the key findings of the in-street and household surveys, before considering the vitality and viability of defined centres within both authority areas. The remainder of the report is focused around the assessment of retail and leisure needs. 1.6 Accordingly, our report is structured as follows: • Section 2 identifies current retail and leisure trends of relevance; • Section 3 provides an overview of the planning policy context; • Section 4 summarises the findings of the in-street surveys undertaken in Newcastle-under-Lyme and Hanley centres; • Section 5 summarises the results of the household shopper survey and the changes in market share over time; • Section 6 summarises our assessment of the vitality and viability of defined centres; • Section 7 provides an overview of forecast changes in Study Area population and expenditure; • Section 8 sets out our assessment of retail needs in the two authority areas; • Section 9 sets out our assessment of leisure needs in the two authority areas; and • Section 10 summarises our key findings and provides our recommendations. 2.0 Current Retail and Leisure Trends 2.1 In order to provide a context for this Study and help identify the sectors that are more likely to be the subject of additional development proposals, we provide an update of current retail and leisure trends below. In reading this review, it should be noted that, whilst the retail and leisure sectors are dynamic, and new formats continue to come forward to meet shoppers’ needs, high streets have been the subject of unprecedented pressures over the past decade. Whilst this is partly due to the ever-increasing number of shoppers who choose to make purchases online, town centres in the Joint Local Plan area have also been impacted through retailers’ general preference to trade from a reduced number of stores, and from shoppers’ willingness to travel to higher order centres to secure choice. Improvements in technology have also resulted in a lesser requirement for some service uses to have a high street presence (banks, building societies, estate agents and so on). 2.2 The below commentary should be taken as a ‘snapshot’ in respect of current market conditions; it will be necessary to judge future development proposals for main town centre uses with reference to the prevailing conditions at the time of a proposal’s determination. The Impact of Brexit and the Current State of the UK Economy 2.3 Subsequent to the referendum of June 2016, which secure a majority vote for the UK to leave the European Union, it is generally accepted that the immediate future is likely to be one of economic uncertainty with a consequential impact on consumer confidence and spending. In the aftermath of the referendum result of June 2016, Verdict published its Economic & Retail Update in September of the same year. Verdict forecast the following economic trends. • Retail growth in the short terms will be relatively flat. However, a weaker pound effectively brings down the cost of goods for international travellers, who may spend more as a consequence. • A weaker pound also leads to higher import and manufacturing costs, which retailers may pass onto consumers. Verdict anticipated that the clothing and footwear sector would likely be the subject of the greatest inflationary price increases. • Brexit may have a negative impact on the housing market and a consequential adverse impact on those retailers who rely on householders investing in their property. As such, there may be less money spent on goods such as DIY, furniture, floor coverings, gardening goods and so on. • In volume terms, little will change in respect of the food retail sector, but inflationary pressures may mean that shoppers spend more on their groceries and less on other goods. 2.4 More than two years on, Verdict’s initial forecast in respect of how the market will react appears accurate. 2.5 As we go on to consider in greater detail below, page 2 of Experian’s Retail Planner Briefing Note 16 (‘ERPBN16’) finds that the UK economy’s recovery ‘…will remain on a sluggish growth trajectory for the next couple of years amid ongoing uncertainty over the final outcome of Brexit negotiations‘. 2.6 In terms of inflation, Office for National Statistics data indicates that the rate of inflation (as measured by the consumer prices index) increased from 0.5% at June 2016 to a high of 3.1% at November 2017, before reducing to 1.8% at February 2019. The increasing cost of living has been particularly problematic for the retail sector, as inflation has been principally driven by increasing fuel prices (affecting the cost of electricity, gas and petrol), meaning that consumers have a lesser amount to spend on the high street. Indeed, The Guardian reports that the price of men’s clothing in particular has fallen and that the monthly drop in clothing costs in June 2018 was the biggest recorded since 2012 as shops staged their summer sales in a challenging trading environment. 2.7 In respect of the predicted downturn for the DIY sector, both B&Q and Homebase have reported difficult trading conditions in recent times. Kingfisher, owner of B&Q, saw its share price reduce significantly in March 2018 after reporting a 2.8% fall in full year like-for-like sales .