THE 30 DREW ERS PAP Downloading Deterrence The Logic and Logistics of Coercive Deployment on US Strategy Steven Scott Byrum Major, USAF AIR UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF ADVANCED AIR AND SPACE STUDIES Downloading Deterrence The Logic and Logistics of Coercive Deployment on US Strategy Steven Scott Byrum Major, USAF Drew Paper No. 30 Air University Press Curtis E. LeMay Center for Doctrine Development and Education Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama Air University Steven L. Kwast, Lieutenant General, Commander and President School of Advanced Air and Space Studies Thomas D. McCarthy, Colonel, Commandant and Dean Project Editor Maranda M. Gilmore Copy Editor Sandi Davis Cover Art, Book Design, and Illustrations Daniel Armstrong Presented to the faculty of SAASS in June 2016 Published by Air University Press in February 2019 Composition and Prepress Production Maranda Gilmore Print Preparation and Distribution Diane Clark Disclaimer Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the organizations with which they are associated or the views of the Air University Press, LeMay Center, Air AIR UNIVERSITY PRESS University, United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or any other US government agency. This publication is cleared for public release and Director and Publisher unlimited distribution. Lt Col Darin Gregg This book and other Air University Press publi- cations are available electronically at the AU Press website: https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/ AUPress. Air University Press 600 Chennault Circle, Bldg 1405 Maxwell AFB, AL 36112-6010 https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/AUPress/ This Drew Paper and others in the series are Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/AirUnivPress available electronically at the Air University Research Web site at https://www.airuniversity. and af.edu/AirUniversityResearch/ and the AU Press Twitter: https://twitter.com/aupress Web site https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/AU- Press/. Air University Press The Drew Papers The Drew Papers are award-winning master’s theses selected for publication by the School of Advanced Air and Space Studies (SAASS), Maxwell AFB, Alabama. This series of papers com- memorates the distinguished career of Col Dennis “Denny” Drew, USAF, retired. In 30 years at Air University, Colonel Drew served on the Air Command and Staff College faculty, directed the Airpower Research Institute, and served as dean, associated dean, and professor of military strategy at SAASS. Colonel Drew is one of the Air Force’s most extensively published authors and an international speaker in high demand. He has lectured to over 100,000 students at Air University as well as to foreign military audiences. In 1985 he received the Muir S. Fairchild Award for outstanding contributions to Air University. In 2003 Queen Beatrix of the Netherlands made him a Knight in the Order of Orange-Nassau for his contributions to education in the Royal Netherlands Air Force. The Drew Papers are dedicated to promoting the understanding of air and space power theory and application. These studies are published by the Air University Press and broadly distributed throughout the US Air Force, the Department of Defense, and other governmental organizations, as well as to leading scholars, selected institutions of higher learning, public-policy institutes, and the media. iv Please send inquiries or comments to Commandant and Dean School of Advanced Air and Space Studies 125 Chennault Circle Maxwell AFB, AL 36112 Tel: (334) 953-5155 DSN: 493-5155 [email protected] v Contents About the Author viii Acknowledgments x Abstract xii 1 The Big Hoax 1 2 Theory, Basing, and Implications 5 Defining Coercion 5 The Limits of Nuclear Deterrence 7 Conventional Deterrence and Its Limits 8 Conclusion 10 3 Historical Evidence for Fixed and Mobile Presence 12 The Airlift That Saved Israel 13 Operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm 17 Task Force Hawk 26 Conclusion 31 4 Current Technologies, Forces, and Concepts of Operations 36 Current Logistics Technologies 36 The Math of Logistics 39 How We Currently Expand MOG 40 Putting It All Together 41 Summary 41 5 Modeling Logistics 44 The Team 45 The Model 46 Conclusion 48 6 The Future of Downloading Deterrence 50 Bibliography 54 vi Photos 1 10K All-Terrain Forklift 37 2 25K Halvorsen 37 3 60K Tunner 37 vii About the Author Maj Scott Byrum was a 2001 graduate of Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, where he majored in history and political science. In 2003 he graduated from the Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, with a master’s degree in international affairs. His 13-year career on active duty includes time as a C-17 Globemaster III instructor pilot, Air Operations Center evaluator, and contingency response element director of operations. viii Acknowledgments This work could not have been possible without the support and mentorship of several people. The genesis of this paper emerged during my time as an Air Force Fellow at the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (DARPA). Mrs. Pamela Melroy, deputy director of the Tactical Technology Office at DARPA, carved out time to provide me with intellectual, career, and personal mentorship. She also had the vision to have me work for Dr. Dan Patt on both the Aircrew Labor In-Cockpit Automation System (ALIAS) and strategic mobility architectures (SMA) programs. Dr. Patt’s mentorship provided one of the most enlightening experiences of my short military career. The Department of Defense is lucky to have him on its side, and I feel privileged to have been part of his team. The rest of the SMA and ALIAS teams, anchored by Dr. Mark Nowack, opened their arms to this student of history and political science, giving me on-the-job training in both technology and acquisition. Additionally, I must thank Nolan Sherrill and his team at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab. Their dedication to learn the logistics enter- prise, and availability to discuss ideas, helped me refine my thoughts and provided the backbone of the innovation portion of the paper. I also must thank Dr. Stephen Chiabotti for his patience, insight, and guidance as I researched and developed this thesis. I would also like to thank Dr. Thomas Hughes for reviewing the draft and providing comments. Most importantly, I want to express my sincere appreciation to my family for their love, patience, and understanding during those times when I was absent, off reading or writing for SAASS. Their support was very important to me and made all the difference in ensuring my success in completing this work. x Abstract This study proceeds in two parts. The first section is a theoretical and historical review of the role of logistics—enabled military pres- ence as a part of coercive strategies. Operation Nickel Grass—the United States’ logistical support to Israel during the Yom Kippur War—demonstrates how even permanently based forces may fail to deter aggression, while showing the successes and challenges of one of the first modern aerial logistics efforts. The deployment of US forces as a part of Operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm was one of the largest military logistics operations of all time. Despite its coercive success, the ports of debarkation struggled to handle the tre- mendous flow of frontline forces, equipment, and sustainment. The time offered to the United States to deploy massive forces and over- come logistical hurdles is unlikely to be offered by future adversaries. Finally, the deployment of Task Force Hawk as a part of the conflict in Kosovo shows how even small force deployments face logistical hurdles as constraints at ports of debarkation slow the establishment of forward military presence. In sum, the theoretical review and historical cases suggest coercive strategies should employ forward presence but that limits on throughput degrade the United States’ current capacity to employ rapid mobility to its full potential. The second section of the work systematically examines the United States’ current aerial port technologies and concepts of op- erations. Part of this analysis rests on a recent Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA)-commissioned project to model the United States logistics enterprise. The DARPA project infused potential technologies, like fast sealift and heavy vertical airlift, to examine investment strategies for research and development. While the United States military tends toward platform-centric research, this work demonstrates that investment in upload and download technologies is necessary to achieve real changes in speed of throughput at the most constrained portion of the logis- tics enterprise: forward ports of debarkation. Taken as a whole, the work casts a vision of how the United States can continue to lead the world in force projection capabilities as a part of coercive strategies. xii Chapter 1 The Big Hoax In the waning days of 1963, news outlets across the western world were filled with triumph and tragedy—from recounts of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.’s inspiring “dream” to the confused conspira- cies surrounding the assassination of Pres. John F. Kennedy. Tucked among these high-profile events, chirped the brief accounts of some 240 military-credentialed reporters and photographers detailing a watershed joint logistics exercise. These newsmen were invited by Secretary of Defense Robert S. McNamara to witness the Big Lift, the largest military troop movement to date. Over the course of just sixty-three hours, 13,000 troops from the 2d Armored Division at Fort Hood, Texas, along with 1,500 support personnel from all across the country, were airlifted across the Atlantic to Berlin. De- spite maintenance problems and below-average weather in Europe, the lift deployed all of these troops nine hours ahead of schedule. Once on the ground, reporters and photographers—with unprece- dented access—documented how the Texas-based troops married up with prepositioned equipment in Europe to perform maneuvers against the 3rd Armored Division already stationed in Germany.