Student Mobility in the Flint Community School District By Troy Rosencrants Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................ i Introduction ............................................................................................................ 1 Data Analysis ......................................................................................................... 2 Data .............................................................................................................. 2 Student Counts ............................................................................................. 2 Student Mobility .......................................................................................... 3 Comparison of ACS data and student counts .............................................. 4 Discussion/Conclusions ......................................................................................... 8 References ............................................................................................................ 10 Appendices ........................................................................................................... 11 Executive Summary . Student mobility can be an issue in many urban areas where the population is predominantly minority and are low-income. Schools districts in Genesee County and, specifically, Flint Community Schools have declined in student population recently. During the period of declining student population in Flint Community Schools, the amount of students that reside within the school district and are enrolling elsewhere has increased. A majority of these students are attending public school academies or charter schools, especially grades K-8. In high school, a majority of students that enroll elsewhere are attending another public school district. Recommendations for further analysis include the following: student level monitoring of where they are going, after-school program attendance, and test score performance before and after moving schools; examining changes in school or district policies and opening/closing of schools; investigate socioeconomic factors of families in the region; continued analysis on student data presented in the report. i A. Introduction The current population of Flint, MI is now estimated to be close to 100,000, and this historically low figure can be partly attributed to the loss of approximately 26,000 people over the last 15 years. The City of Flint grew rapidly during the expansion of the automobile industry during the period from 1910 to the mid-1900s, and reached its 196,000 population peak in 1960. Global deindustrialization and the dependence on the automobile industry created job loss in the community, forcing residents to find employment elsewhere. Due to the de-population of the City of Flint, especially in the last 10-15 years, Flint Community Schools (FCS) has seen a drop in number of students within the district. With this drop in student population, Flint Community Schools has closed many schools during the same time period, including two high schools (Central and Northern). However, not all of the student population decrease can be attributed to the declining population within the City of Flint. The State of Michigan allows for school districts to participate in the Schools of Choice program, which allows non-resident students to enroll in a different school or allows students that reside within the school district to choose which school a student attends. The process of students changing schools is referred to student mobility. Student mobility is common, and the term has many definitions. For example, student mobility can refer to structural mobility (i.e., promotional changes of elementary to middle school) or nonstructural (i.e., changing schools on students own accord). Reasons for a student changing schools can be characterized by student/family initiated, school initiated, voluntary/involuntary, and in-between school years/within an academic year. In some cases, multiple factors complicate the situation of the student. Student mobility is more pronounced in urban districts, especially within areas where the population is predominantly low income, minority students, as opposed to rural/suburban districts. (Welsh 2016). The City of Flint has a majority non-white population, a significantly high poverty rate (41 %), and is considered an urban school district. This report examines the trends of population within the City of Flint, focusing on school-aged populations and potential student mobility. Specifically, we investigate students who reside within the Flint Community School district, but are not enrolled in Flint Community Schools to determine exactly where they are enrolling. The report will conclude with a discussion of the potential causes for the high student mobility of Flint’s youth. 1 B. Data Analysis Data This report examines the five years of school data from 2011/12 to 2015/16. Population data are taken from the American Community Survey population estimates provided by the US Census (USCB 2017), and enrollment data originate with MI School Data from Center for Educational Performance and Information provided by the State of Michigan (CEPI, 2016). Data were collected for all years of the study and examined for trends using raw counts, percentages, maps, and tables. Student Counts In Genesee County with the 2015/2016 school year being the reference, the student population has declined since 2011/2012. In the 2011/12 school year there were approximately 66,500 students in public school districts. The student population decreased to under 60,000 by the 2015/16 school year, a decline of 10%. A majority of the students lost were within Flint Community Schools and Bendle Public Schools, losing 4,246 and 1,002 students, respectively. Overall, only 7 school districts in Genesee County gained students during the time period, with Carmen-Ainsworth gaining the most students (744). Seven school districts lost more than 10% of their 2011/12 student count, with the other 7 losing less than 5% of their student population (Table 1). In Flint Community Schools, the student population has decreased significantly since the 2011/12 school year. As discussed before, many schools have had to close in the last 10-15 years, including 11 (2 high school, 7 K-6 schools, 2 7-8 schools) within the time period being discussed in this report. Flint Community Schools had the most students of any district in Genesee County in the 2011/12 school year with 9,606 students. However, in the 2015/16 school year, the district was 3rd with 5,360 students, falling behind Grand Blanc Community Schools and Davison Community Schools. Similar to the overall district student counts, every grade, K-12, decreased in count during the period. Most students in FCS are in the elementary school grade age range (K-6), with the most in Kindergarten and 1st grade, and the counts decrease generally up to the 6th grade. There is a small increase every year in 9th grade from the 8th grade totals, but could be due to a number of private/charter schools near FCS only housing grades K-8. Despite this potential influx, total FCS student counts of every grade became smaller from the 2011/12 2 school year to the 2015/16 school year, with some individual schools increasing in enrollment. Most of the gainers are elementary schools, such as Durant-Tuuri-Mott School, which increased in enrollment every year. One possible cause for this increase in enrollment for elementary schools could be the closure of other elementary schools in the district. Table 1 Student counts in Genesee County public school districts for 2011/12 to 2015/16 Percent Change School District 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2011/12 - 2015/16 Atherton Community Schools 866 808 906 902 922 6% Beecher Community School District 1,500 1,362 1,326 1,073 978 -35% Bendle Public Schools 2,183 2,280 1,153 1,240 1,181 -46% Bentley Community School District 863 801 877 885 872 1% Carman-Ainsworth Community Schools 4,369 4,361 5,450 5,124 5,113 17% Clio Area School District 3,652 3,498 3,299 3,208 3,168 -13% Davison Community Schools 5,541 5,601 5,557 5,610 5,674 2% Fenton Area Public Schools 3,546 3,488 3,456 3,410 3,374 -5% Flint Community Schools 9,606 8,472 7,104 6,486 5,360 -44% Flushing Community Schools 4,240 4,113 4,093 3,976 4,080 -4% Genesee School District 825 811 808 740 698 -15% Goodrich Area Schools 2,145 2,106 2,106 2,055 2,054 -4% Grand Blanc Community Schools 8,740 8,736 8,536 8,492 8,319 -5% Kearsley Community School District 3,155 3,303 3,297 3,182 3,069 -3% Lake Fenton Community Schools 1,869 1,998 2,022 2,028 2,014 8% LakeVille Community School District 1,628 1,485 1,408 1,324 1,294 -21% Linden Community Schools 2,966 2,983 2,947 2,872 2,837 -4% Montrose Community Schools 1,405 1,375 1,386 1,417 1,445 3% Mt. Morris Consolidated Schools 2,519 2,478 2,070 2,033 2,070 -18% Swartz Creek Community Schools 3,963 4,013 3,998 3,965 3,866 -2% Westwood Heights Schools 949 854 1,311 1,324 1,357 43% School Mobility The decrease in the student population in FCS may be attributable to those students who have not moved, but are attending a different school outside of the district. The State of Michigan keeps track of students that reside within a district but attend elsewhere. The count of students residing in the City of Flint but attending other districts’ schools has risen in the last 5 school years, and is now close to 3,000 students. Approximately 10,000 students residing in the 3 FCS district enrolled in a different district/school during the 2015/16 school year, up from just under 7,000 students in the 2011/12 school year. Examining where the students enroll reveals that a majority of students leaving the FCS district enroll in public school academies(PSA)/charter schools, though that majority is waning (68% in 2011/12 to 58% in 2015/16). Of the students that enroll in a PSA/charter school, a majority of those are in grades K-8. As stated above, most of the PSA/charter schools in Genesee County only house grades K-8. In grades 9-12, a majority of students attend another public school district (Table 2).