ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND COVID-19: APPLICATIONS AND IMPACT ASSESSMENT ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND COVID-19: APPLICATIONS AND IMPACT ASSESSMENT Page left blank intentionally ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND COVID-19: APPLICATIONS AND IMPACT ASSESSMENT 1 This report was produced as a part of the Artificial Intelligence: Applications/Implications (AI)² Initiative (https://www.aaas.org/ai2) of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). AAAS is the world’s largest multidisciplinary scientific membership organization. The goal of the AAAS (AI)² Initiative is to contriBute to the responsiBle development and application of artificial intelligence (AI) such that AI alleviates rather than exacerBates social inequalities. Report prepared by: Ilana Harrus, Senior Program Associate (AAAS) Jessica Wyndham, Program Director (AAAS) Acknowledgments: We gratefully acknowledge memBers of the (AI)2 Initiative Advisory Group and of the AAAS Committee on Scientific Freedom and ResponsiBility who provided input and guidance. In particular, we wish to thank Ronald Arkin, Solon Barocas, Kadija Ferryman, Noreen Herzfeld, Camara Jones, Alexa Koenig, Daniel Kracov, Mark Latonero, Camille NeBeker, Frank Pasquale, David RoBinson, Neal RuBin, Dietram Scheufele, Jeramie Scott, and Daniel Weitzner. Special thanks are also due to Theresa Harris and Curtis L. Baxter III for their feedBack on the report. Funding for the AI² Initiative was provided in part by Microsoft. Disclaimer: The opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this puBlication do not necessarily reflect the views of the AAAS Board of Directors, its council and memBership, or Microsoft. Contact: AAAS welcomes comments and questions regarding its work. Please send information, suggestions, and any comments to the AI2 project at: https://www.aaas.org/ai2/contact Cite as: AAAS (2021). Artificial Intelligence and COVID-19: Applications and Impact Assessment. (Report prepared By Ilana Harrus and Jessica Wyndham under the auspices of the AAAS Scientific ResponsiBility, Human Rights and Law Program). American Association for the Advancement of Science Artificial Intelligence: Applications/Implications Scientific ResponsiBility, Human Rights and Law Program 1200 New York Avenue, NW Washington, DC, 20005 USA Cover design credit: Paula Fry, Lead Art Associate (AAAS) © Copyright 2021 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND COVID-19: APPLICATIONS AND IMPACT ASSESSMENT 2 TaBle of Contents ACRONYMS .................................................................................................................................................. 4 ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................................................... 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................... 6 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................................... 11 1 COMPILATIONS AND ASSESSMENT OF AI APPLICATIONS LINKED TO COVID-19 ....................... 12 1.1 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................................................ 12 1.2 SURVEY OF SURVEYS .......................................................................................................................................... 12 1.3 FORECASTING .................................................................................................................................................... 16 1.4 DIAGNOSIS ........................................................................................................................................................ 17 1.5 CONTAINMENT AND MONITORING ................................................................................................................... 18 1.6 DRUG DEVELOPMENTS AND TREATMENTS ........................................................................................................ 19 1.7 MEDICAL AND SOCIAL MANAGEMENT .............................................................................................................. 21 2 SELECTION PROCESS: METHODOLOGY AND RESULTS .................................................................... 22 3 IN-DEPTH EXAMINATION OF THE SELECTED APPLICATIONS ......................................................... 23 3.1 ETHICAL AND HUMAN RIGHTS FRAMEWORKS ................................................................................................... 23 3.2 SORTING APPLICATIONS .................................................................................................................................... 26 3.2.1 Triage Applications ............................................................................................................................ 26 3.2.2 Allocation of Resources .................................................................................................................... 36 3.3 SURVEILLANCE APPLICATIONS ........................................................................................................................... 37 3.3.1 Contact Tracing ................................................................................................................................... 38 3.3.2 Geofencing / Green Passports ........................................................................................................ 44 4 CONCLUSIONS ........................................................................................................................................ 46 5 MOVING FORWARD: PROPOSED RESEARCH AGENDA ................................................................... 47 TECHNICAL ............................................................................................................................................................... 48 ETHICAL, SOCIAL AND HUMAN RIGHT ISSUES .......................................................................................................... 52 NEXT STEPS .............................................................................................................................................................. 54 6 BIBLIOGRAPHY ....................................................................................................................................... 55 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND COVID-19: APPLICATIONS AND IMPACT ASSESSMENT 3 TaBle of Figures Figure 1: COVID-19 mortality rates per 100,000 cases by race and ethnicity in the US through March 2, 2021. ....... 11 Figure 2: Papers and AI techniques used against both virus and disease. The bars show the number of papers on research topics that do not rely on the use of AI (blue) and those that do (orange)................................................... 13 Figure 3: AI techniques against COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2 ........................................................................................ 15 Figure 4: A schematic view of the traditional drug development process. .................................................................. 20 Figure 5: A schematic representation of the relationships between Principles, Issues and Recommendations ......... 24 Figure 6: A schematic decision tree to measure/ensure fairness ................................................................................ 30 Figure 7: Comparison of potential legal outcome under law....................................................................................... 35 Figure 8: A schematic view of how contact tracing can work...................................................................................... 39 Figure 9: Estimate adoption rate of contact tracing applications ............................................................................... 43 Figure 10: Time evolution of people’s attitude toward sharing data from contact tracing applications ................... 45 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND COVID-19: APPLICATIONS AND IMPACT ASSESSMENT 4 Acronyms AAAS: American Association for the Advancement of Science AI: Artificial Intelligence BLE: Bluetooth Low Energy CDC: Center for Disease Control and Prevention CORD-19: COVID-19 Open Research Dataset COVID: Coronavirus Disease CT: Computed Tomography EDI: EPIC Deterioration Index EHR: Electronic Health Record EPIC: Emergency Physicians Integrated Care ER: Emergency Room FDA: Food and Drug Administration FG-AI4H: Focus Group-Artificial Intelligence for Health FDR: False Discovery Rate FN: False Negative FNR: False Negative Rate FP: False Positive FPR: False Positive Rate GPS: GloBal Positioning System ICCPR: International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights ICESCR: International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights ICU: Intensive Care Unit ITU: International Telecommunication Union ML: Machine Learning NIST: National Institute of Standards and Technology PACT East: Private Automated Contact Tracing PACT West: Privacy Sensitive Protocols And Mechanisms for MoBile Contact Tracing QR: Quick Response SOFA: Sequential Organ Failure Assessment SSRC: Social Science Research Council UNESCO: United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization US: United States WHO: World Health Organization ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND COVID-19: APPLICATIONS AND IMPACT ASSESSMENT 5 Abstract This report provides an overview of the multiple ways that artificial intelligence has Been either used or