OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers No. 157 Changes in Family Policies Willem Adema, and Outcomes: Is there Nabil Ali, Convergence? Olivier Thévenon https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5jz13wllxgzt-en For Official Use DELSA/ELSA/WD/SEM(2014)3 Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Économiques Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development ___________________________________________________________________________________________ _____________ English - Or. English DIRECTORATE FOR EMPLOYMENT, LABOUR AND SOCIAL AFFAIRS EMPLOYMENT, LABOUR AND SOCIAL AFFAIRS COMMITTEE For Official Use Official For DELSA/ELSA/WD/SEM(2014)3 OECD SOCIAL, EMPLOYMENT AND MIGRATION WORKING PAPERS No. 157 Changes in family policies and outcomes: is there convergence? Willem Adema, Nabil Ali and Olivier Thévenon JEL Classification: D1 (Household Behavior and Family Economics), J12 (Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure), J13 (Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth), J18 (Demographic economics – public policy) Key words: Family and Child outcomes, Female Employment, Taxes and Benefits, Child Care and Parental Leave. Authorised for publication by Stefano Scarpetta, Director, Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs. All Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers are now available through the OECD website at www.oecd.org/els/workingpapers English Complete document available on OLIS in its original format - This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of Or. English international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. 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Thanks also to Andrea Bassanini and Christopher Clarke for helpful advice regarding the econometric methodology used in this paper and to Christopher Clarke and Anna Vitali for running many of the regressions. We are also grateful to Laura Quintin for proofreading the paper. This study was undertaken as part of ongoing work on the OECD Family database. The contents of this publication can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Union. The views expressed in this paper should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its member countries. The opinions expressed and arguments employed are those of the author(s). 3 DELSA/ELSA/WD/SEM(2014)3 ABSTRACT This paper presents new information on trends in family and child outcomes and policies over the past decades, in order to assess whether there has been any convergence over time across OECD and EU countries. Important drivers of population structure such as life expectancy and fertility rates are becoming more similar across countries as are marriage and divorce rates. Increased educational attainment has contributed to greater female employment participation and convergence therein across countries. Child well-being outcomes show a more mixed pattern with improvements and convergence in infant mortality, but varying trends in child poverty across countries. Family policy across the OECD is expanding, as spending on family benefits is increasing. However, there is no clear trend in the use of cash, in-kind of fiscal support as delivery channels for support, and the extent to which these three forms of support are used remains very different across countries. The evidence does suggest, however, that there has been a slight shift in spending towards the early years (0-6) in many countries. There is also some convergence in in the design of parental leave benefits as the total child- related leave period that mothers can use after childbirth has increased to almost one year across countries. Participation in formal childcare by children not yet 3 years of age has increased to about one-third. On the whole, it appears that the degree of convergence in family policy over the last decades is noticeably smaller than the convergence in family outcomes across OECD and EU countries. Using an empirical approach, the analysis relates the policy changes to three important outcome indicators of family well-being: fertility, female employment and infant mortality. The analysis, based on time-series cross-sectional data, shows that childcare participation is positively associated with an increase in fertility rates and female employment and, less significantly, with a decrease in infant mortality. Public spending on family benefits and the duration of paid child-related leave for mothers is significantly associated with an increase in the total fertility rate; tax incentives to work part-time are associated with an increase in female employment; and, public spending on healthcare is found to be strongly associated with a decrease in infant mortality. 4 DELSA/ELSA/WD/SEM(2014)3 RÉSUMÉ Ce document présente de nouvelles informations sur l'évolution des résultats et des politiques familiales et de l'enfant au cours des dernières décennies, afin d'évaluer s'il y a eu une convergence au fil du temps dans les pays de l'OCDE et de l'UE. Des facteurs importants de la structure de la population tels que l'espérance de vie et les taux de fécondité ont tendance à s’aligner dans les différents pays tout comme les taux de mariage et de divorce. L’augmentation du niveau de scolarité a contribué à une plus grande participation de l'emploi des femmes et une convergence dans plusieurs pays. Les indicateurs relatifs au bien-être des enfants affichent des résultats plus contrastés, avec certaines améliorations dans le domaine de la santé, mais des évolutions disparates en matière de pauvreté. Avec l’augmentation des dépenses consacrées aux prestations familiales, les politiques à destination des familles prennent de plus en plus d’ampleur dans les pays de l’OCDE. Cependant, le degré d’utilisation des prestations en espèces (allocations familiales et compléments versés pendant le congé parental), des aides fiscales et des aides pour la garde des enfants varie encore d’un pays à l’autre. On observe malgré tout une légère inflexion des dépenses au profit des premières années de l’enfant (0 à 6 ans) dans de nombreux pays. En moyenne, dans la zone OCDE, la durée du congé maternité a augmenté pour passer à près d’un an, et la proportion d’enfants de moins de trois ans confiés à des services de garde organisés est passée à environ un tiers. , De manière générale, il apparaît que pendant la dernière décennie ,le mouvement de convergence a été sensiblement plus limité pour les politiques familiales que pour celle des indicateurs relatifs à la situation des familles dans les pays de l'OCDE et l'UE. L’analyse présentée part de données empiriques pour déterminer les relations qui existent entre les politiques familiales et trois aspects importants du bien-être des familles et des enfants : fécondité, emploi des femmes et mortalité infantile. L'analyse, basée sur des séries chronologiques de données transversales, montre que la participation de garde d'enfants est positivement associée à une augmentation des taux de fécondité ainsi qu’à l'emploi des femmes et, de façon moins significative, à une diminution de la mortalité infantile. Les dépenses publiques consacrées aux prestations familiales et la durée du congé payé lié aux enfants pour les mères sont significativement associées à une augmentation du taux de fécondité, les incitations fiscales à travailler à temps partiel sont associées à une augmentation de l'emploi féminin enfin, les dépenses publiques de santé se trouvent être fortement associées à une diminution de la mortalité infantile. 5 DELSA/ELSA/WD/SEM(2014)3 TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ...................................................................................................................................................