1 | Foreword: The Arab Spring as an Historical Opportunity | Podeh Israel and the Arab Spring: Opportunities in Change Editors: Dr. Nimrod Goren | Jenia Yudkevich Israel and the Arab Spring: Opportunities in Change Edited by Dr. Nimrod Goren and Jenia Yudkevich ישראל והאביב הערבי: הזדמנויות בשינוי עורכים: ד"ר נמרוד גורן וג'ניה יודקביץ' Copyright© 2013 by Mitvim - The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies and the Friedrich-Ebert Foundation (FES). All rights reserved. The commercial use of media published by the Mitvim Institute and FES without written permission by Mitvim and FES is strictly forbidden. ISBN: 978-965-7617-02-1 Table of Contents Introduction | Nimrod Goren and Jenia Yudkevich 4 Foreword: The Arab Spring as an Historical Opportunity | Elie Podeh 6 Egyptian Plague or Spring of Youth? The Israeli Discourse regarding the Arab Spring | Lior Lehrs 8 The Arab Spring and the Palestinians of Israel | Ghaida Rinawie-Zoabi 26 Israel, Turkey and the Arab Spring: Opportunities for Reconciliation | Nimrod Goren 31 Political Islam and the Arab Spring | Moshe Ma’oz 42 The Intra-Palestinian Reconciliation Process and the Arab Spring | Ido Zelkovitz 52 Israel and Weak Neighboring States: Lessons from the Israeli Experience in Lebanon | Ehud Eiran 59 The Mass Media and Israeli-Arab Relations following the Arab Spring | Ksenia Svetlova 69 The New Kingdom of Forces: Research Institutes in the Middle East | Kamal Ali-Hassan 75 The Israeli Peace Organizations and the Arab Spring | Yael Patir 82 An Alternative Model of Israeli-Arab Encounters | Ronen Zeidel 90 Postscript: Israel in the Wake of the Arab Spring | Elie Podeh and Nimrod Goren 98 About the Partner Organizations Mitvim - The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies and The Friedrich-Ebert Foundation 103 Introduction Winds of change have been blowing across the Middle East since late 2010. For the first time in decades, Arab citizens in different countries are going to the streets and demanding freedom and basic human rights In much of Europe and North America, these developments have been by and large greeted with enthusiasm and hope for a better Middle East Israel, however, is viewing things differently. It is examining the new regional situation with considerable concern, and even fear The Israeli consensus is that we are witnessing the start of a long era of instability, with increased threats of regional radicalization and Islamism The Arab Spring is generally perceived in Israel as a threat to national security Israel's official policy towards the Arab Spring reflects these concerns. It aims at maintaining - to the extent possible - the status quo. Israel also refrains from taking initiatives to promote the peace process This policy increases Israel's regional isolation and does not enable it to be part of regional processes that are reshaping the Middle East Mitvim - The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies believes that the potential threats that Israel sees in the Arab Spring form only part of a larger and more complex picture, and that recent developments across the Arab world also hold important opportunities for Israel's regional foreign policies and for its standing in the Arab and Muslim worlds For this reason, Mitvim, in cooperation with the Friedrich-Ebert Foundation, has launched in 2011 the “Opportunities in Change” project that sets out to develop a fresh Israeli approach towards the Arab Spring - one that emphasizes opportunities and not only threats, and that aims to advance peace and regional belonging As part of this project, a multi-disciplinary task-team has been assembled, including experts from the fields of Middle Eastern studies, international relations, media, civil society and policy- making. The team members have been working to identify and analyze various opportunities for Israel in the Arab Spring, and to start putting them into use This book is one of the major products of this work. It includes ten articles written by the Mitvim task-team members. The articles combine policy-analysis with evidence-based research, and focus on issues related to Israeli perceptions of the Arab Spring, changing regional alliances, and possible channels between Israel and the Arab world Together, they provide a broad overview of the opportunities for Israel in the Arab Spring, and spell out concrete policy paths towards their implementation It is a pleasure for us to thank all those who assisted the making of this publication. Our partners at the Israeli office of the Friedrich-Ebert Foundation - especially Dr. Ralf Hexel, Micky Drill and Rinat Gimpel - provided us constant support and advice, from the onset of this project, which we very much cherish We also highly appreciate Prof Elie Podeh, Board member at Mitvim and Professor of Middle Eastern Studies at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, for his contribution to this book and for his assistance in reviewing the various articles. Other board members at Mitvim - Dr. Ilai Saltzman, Yonatan Touval, and Yair Rotlevi played an essential and helpful role in designing the project and in enabling its successful implementation Lastly, we are thankful to Shoshana London-Sappir, for her translation and editing work that enabled us to publish this book in both Hebrew and English versions, and to Noa Shvartsun for the graphic design of this book. Nimrod Goren and Jenia Yudkevich Ramat Gan, Israel; September 2013 6 | Foreword: The Arab Spring as an Historical Opportunity | Podeh Foreword: The Arab Spring as an Historical Opportunity | Elie Podeh1 The Webster dictionary defines opportunity as “a favorable juncture of circumstances” or “a good chance for advancement and progress” The academic literature largely follows this direction Opportunities are seen as occasions to “do something” or favorable moments for a achieving a certain purpose. In situations of a conflict the opportune moment, according to William Zartman, “is not just ‘whenever’ but is contextually determined”.2 In his opinion, the opportunity may come from a lull in the fighting, a temporary cease-fire or from a meeting of the parties. Such an opportunity, he writes, “offers an opening for specific measures, for it is not self-perpetuating and will fall apart at the next incident if not seized and solidified”.3 The “invitation” for seizing the moment usually comes from a third party but it can also be presented by one of the rivals in the conflict. Zartman emphasizes that opportunities “are not revolving doors, where entry appears at regular intervals”; they constitute a period of time in the life of the conflict when diplomacy is possible.4 Thus, when an opportunity presents itself it constitutes a kind of a liminal period, in which a certain breakthrough in the deadlocked conflict is possible. In his analysis, Zartman in fact referred to two elements inherent in an opportunity: the objective component, relating to the circumstances, processes, events and conditions existing at the time, which set the basis for the existence of an opportunity; and the subjective component, referring to the ability of the leader(ship) - either one of the parties to the conflict or a third party - to identify the existence of the objective component of the opportunity and attempt to exploit it by offering some initiative. When these two elements converge, then a true opportunity presents itself 5 It is important to emphasize that the opportunity represents possibility but not inevitability 6 In order to turn the possibility into a real opportunity an offer or an initiative should be presented On the basis of this analysis, my research on missed opportunities in the Arab-Israeli conflict defined that an historic opportunity is composed of two variables:7 The existence of a significant historical process or event that creates a basis for the emergence of an alternative In other words, the convergence of certain historical processes and events may help induce a convenient moment or circumstances for pursuing peace - a “window of opportunity” as it has become known. These may include wars, revolutions, disintegration of 1 Prof. Elie Podeh is a professor in the Department of Islamic and Middle Eastern Studies at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and a Member of the Board at Mitvim - The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies 2 William Zartman, Cowardly Lions: Missed Opportunities to Prevent Deadly Conflict and State Collapse (Boulder: Lynne Reinner Publishers, 2005), p 10 3 Ibid, p 12 4 Ibid, p 17 5 Shraga F. Biran, On Praise of Opportunism: An Introduction to the Theory of Opportunities (Tel Aviv: Yediot Ahronot, 2008), p. 39. 6 Richard Hass, The Opportunity: America’s Moment to Alter History’s Course (New York: Public Affairs, 2005), p. 4. 7 Elie Podeh, Plausible Missed Opportunities in the Arab-Israeli Conflict. Unpublished manuscript. 7 | Foreword: The Arab Spring as an Historical Opportunity | Podeh states or regimes, as well as changes of governments and leaders. The existence of such a process or event may facilitate the presentation of the offer/initiative. On the basis of recognizing the first element, the existence of a formal and/or informal initiative presented by one of the parties to the conflict, or a trustworthy mediator, that has an element of attraction to the offered party (or parties). Having said that, “attractiveness” cannot be objectively measured; what is considered attractive and generous by the offering party may be considered otherwise by the offered party. It is thus necessary to assess the extent to which the offer is innovative and revolutionary in terms of the status quo existing between the conflicting parties, thereby setting parameters by which to define “attractiveness”. If the offer includes a significant incentive - a “mega-incentive”, that is, an offer that cannot be refused in terms of security and peace8 - then it may be defined as highly attractive to the offered party (or parties). Also, if the offer, in one way or another is repeatedly presented, it means that the offering party is consistent and serious in its effort.