Greater Lincolnshire LEP Rail Study Final Report January 2016 JMP Consultants Ltd Greater Lincolnshire LEP Rail Study JMP Consultants Ltd 100 Wellington Street Leeds LS1 1BA T 0113 397 9740 F 0113 397 9741 E [email protected] www.jmp.co.uk [email protected] facebook.com/jmp.consultants twitter.com/#!/_jmp linkedin.com/company/jmp consulting Report Record Job No. Report No. Issue No. Prepared Verified Approved Status Date NEA7043 1 3 JJ APB APB Final 18/01/2016 Contents Amendments Record Issue No. Revision description Approved Status Date 2 Revisions following comments on 10/04/15 Draft APB Final 27/05/15 3 Amendments following comments on 27/05/15 Draft Final APB Final 21/10/2015 4 Minor changes to update issues APB Final 18/01/2016 ii Greater Lincolnshire LEP Rail Study : NEA7043-1/4 JMP Consultants Ltd Contents 0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION 4 Introduction to The Greater Lincolnshire Economy And Rail Network ........................................................4 The East Midlands Trains Franchise ..........................................................................................................5 Report Structure..........................................................................................................................................6 PART A: RAIL AND THE ECONOMY OF GREATER LINCOLNSHIRE – NOW AND WHAT COULD BE ACHIEVED 7 2 RAIL AND ITS ROLE IN LINCOLNSHIRE 8 Features of the Network in Lincolnshire......................................................................................................8 Demand for Services ..................................................................................................................................9 The Devolution Opportunity ......................................................................................................................12 3 ECONOMIC DRIVERS IN GREATER LINCOLNSHIRE 13 Key Economic Sectors ..............................................................................................................................13 The importance of rail to the Greater Lincolnshire economy ....................................................................16 Investment in transport through the Growth Deal .....................................................................................20 4 MODELLING THE ECONOMIC POTENTIAL OF RAIL 22 Approach...................................................................................................................................................22 Settlements and Services .........................................................................................................................23 Results ......................................................................................................................................................25 The Value of the Existing Rail Network.....................................................................................................26 Results by Station .....................................................................................................................................26 Results by Route Section..........................................................................................................................33 Summary of the Economic Benefits ..........................................................................................................36 PART B: DELIVERING THE NECESSARY RAIL IMPROVEMENTS 37 5 LONG DISTANCE CONNECTIVITY 38 Lincoln – London.......................................................................................................................................39 South Humber Bank – London..................................................................................................................39 Greater Lincolnshire LEP Rail Study : NEA7043-1/4 iii JMP Consultants Ltd The East Coast Mainline ...........................................................................................................................41 Summary...................................................................................................................................................41 6 LINCOLN RADIAL ROUTES 43 Lincoln – Newark/Nottingham ...................................................................................................................44 Lincoln – Sheffield/Doncaster ...................................................................................................................47 Lincoln – Sleaford .....................................................................................................................................50 Lincoln – Grimsby .....................................................................................................................................51 Summary...................................................................................................................................................53 7 SOUTH LINCOLNSHIRE & EAST MIDLANDS 54 Nottingham – Grantham – Skegness ........................................................................................................54 Sleaford – Peterborough ...........................................................................................................................57 Nottingham – Grantham – Peterborough – Norwich .................................................................................58 Birmingham – Leicester – Stamford – Stansted Airport ............................................................................59 Summary...................................................................................................................................................60 8 NORTHERN LINCOLNSHIRE 61 South Humber Mainline ............................................................................................................................61 Connectivity to West Yorkshire & The North.............................................................................................64 Cleethorpes – Barton-on-Humber .............................................................................................................65 Cleethorpes – Brigg – Sheffield ................................................................................................................66 9 THE ROLE OF FREIGHT 68 The North Lincolnshire Ports ....................................................................................................................68 Freight Traffic Generated in Greater Lincolnshire.....................................................................................69 Flows Passing Through Lincolnshire ........................................................................................................69 Summary...................................................................................................................................................69 10 DEVELOPING THE NETWORK 70 Network Wide Improvments ......................................................................................................................70 Committed & Delivered Schemes .............................................................................................................73 Incremental Improvement Schemes .........................................................................................................74 Service Changes within Existing Infrastructure.........................................................................................75 Transformational Schemes .......................................................................................................................77 Priorities for Delivery .................................................................................................................................79 iv Greater Lincolnshire LEP Rail Study : NEA7043-1/4 JMP Consultants Ltd 11 CONCLUSIONS 80 The Role of Rail in Lincolnshire ................................................................................................................80 Economic Impacts of Improving Services .................................................................................................80 Delivering Aspirations ...............................................................................................................................81 The East Midlands Trains Franchise ........................................................................................................81 Tables and Figures Figure 0.1 Greater Lincolnshire LEP Area – Main Rail and Road Links ....................................................................1 Figure 1.1 The Greater Lincolnshire Rail Network .....................................................................................................5 Figure 2.1 Station Usage since 1997/98 ..................................................................................................................10 Figure 2.2 Index of Demand Change Across the Three Authorities Since 1997/98 ................................................11 Table 2.1 Station Usage at Key Stations .................................................................................................................12 Table 4.1 Definition of Consumer & Producer Services Segments .........................................................................23 Table 4.2 Station Pairs Assessed Within Wider Economic Modelling .....................................................................24 Table 4.3 Definition of Service Levels ......................................................................................................................25