Somerset Economic Development Plan 2015 to 2020 Contents Somerset – Focus on Growth ....................................................................... 1 Regional Challenges and Opportunities .................................................... 2 Themes for Economic Development .......................................................... 8 Business Growth .............................................................................................. 9 Tourism ............................................................................................................ 11 Capability Building ........................................................................................ 13 Infrastructure.................................................................................................. 15 Making it Happen........................................................................................... 17 P a g e | 1 Somerset – Focus on Growth The Somerset region (Somerset) combines a high quality regional lifestyle with opportunities created by the region’s close proximity to the growing urban, tourism and industry corridor between Brisbane and Gympie. Somerset delivers: Real Country - a natural landscape and a quality environment for leisure and living. Somerset contains the water catchments for South East Queensland and valuable agricultural land. Real Adventure - a tourist and outdoor recreation zone that offers relaxing activities through to adventure sports. Really Close to Brisbane - opportunities for business growth (agriculture through to knowledge industries) in close proximity to the State’s largest market, South East Queensland. This Economic Development Plan identifies opportunities for the region’s growth over the next 5 years and is guided by this vision: Creating a contemporary business and lifestyle zone that: o Supports the growth of towns, villages and traditional industries. o Attracts new low impact and knowledge businesses. o Encourages a new generation of entrepreneurs. Positioning Somerset as a leading lifestyle, recreation and leisure destination for South East Queenslanders. P a g e | 2 Regional Challenges and Opportunities In a complex and changing economic environment, Somerset must focus on its strengths and be ready to meet the challenges ahead from changes and disruptions in the wider regional and national economies. A review of Somerset’s demographic, economic and employment trends helps to set the scene for the Economic Development Plan. Somerset Region The Somerset region covers approximately 5,382 sq km and includes Somerset Dam, Wivenhoe Dam and substantial high quality agricultural land. The main centres in the Somerset local government area are: Esk. Fernvale. Lowood. Toogoolawah. Kilcoy. Population At the 2011 census, Somerset was home to 22,200 people – representing 8.3% of the population in the Ipswich and West Moreton region. Somerset’s population is forecast to grow to 32,500 by 2036 – an increase of 46% over the 25 year period. However, Somerset will represent a smaller share of the regional population (4.6%) in 2036 due to the strong population growth in the wider Ipswich and West Moreton region. This regional growth will create opportunities for Somerset: Tourism opportunities based on a larger market for day trip and short trip stays. Expanded opportunities for Somerset businesses to serve a growing regional market. P a g e | 3 The average annual population growth This demographic challenge is illustrated rate for Somerset for the 25 year period by the region’s dependency ratio – the 2011 to 2036 is 1.5% - lower than the rate proportion of people who are in of growth forecast for the Ipswich and dependent age groups (under 15 and 65 West Moreton region (3.9%) and slightly and over) compared with the number of lower than the rate for South East working age people (aged 15 to 64). Queensland (1.8%). The dependency ratio for the South East Towns and villages in Somerset region are Queensland region as a whole was about long established. There has been higher 47% at the 2011 census, while the growth in the Fernvale and Lowood areas dependency ratio for Somerset was 57.7% and in Kilcoy as more people move to the at that time. region for quality of life but still commute The Somerset dependency ratio will to jobs outside Somerset. increase significantly in the future based While this population growth has been on an ageing population to a forecast positive, Somerset faces some challenges 84.6% in 2036 compared to 59.8% in in terms of its current demographic South East Queensland. This means fewer profile. people in the Somerset workforce and a The average age in Somerset region is larger number not in the workforce. increasing (estimated to be 41.8 years in If not countered, this trend could have a 2013) while in the Ipswich and West negative impact on Somerset’s economy Moreton area, the average age is and the ability to provide services to a decreasing (estimated to be 34.7 years in larger ‘dependent’ group living in 2013). Somerset Along with Scenic Rim (42.5 years), Attracting young families and providing Somerset has the highest average age in the jobs and opportunities for these the Ipswich and West Moreton region. families locally can help to mitigate the This highlights the need to attract young effects of Somerset’s ageing population. families to the Somerset. P a g e | 4 Industry and Employment This represents an increase in jobs in the region of 4,200 over a 30 year period (140 The mix of industry sectors in Somerset’s new jobs per year). economy will also change in the future. In 2011, the top employment industries in Forecasts prepared by the National Somerset were: Institute of Economic and Industry Research for the Council of Mayors (SEQ) Manufacturing (including food show Somerset’s gross regional product processing) (accounting for 16.8% of was estimated to be $549.4 million in employment). 2011, rising to $814 million in 2041. Agriculture, forestry and fishing While manufacturing, agriculture and (15.1%). construction will remain strong Retail trade (11.3%). contributors to Somerset’s economy in This mix will change slightly in the future the future, there will be strong growth in with the top employment industries in transport, retail trade and education and Somerset in 2041 forecast to be: training sectors (see chart below). Manufacturing (accounting for 18.4% Within Somerset’s population of 22,000 at of employment). the 2011 Census, there were estimated to be 9,365 people in employment, but only Agriculture, forestry and fishing 6,838 of these (73%) worked in the region. (13.1%). NIEIR’s forecast of growth to 2041 Education (12.0%). estimates that the percentage of residents working in the region will rise to 81% by 2041. P a g e | 5 NIEIR also provided a second scenario Accommodation and food services where population growth is moderated to (0.64) (an indicator for tourism). match the current employment Information, media and generating capacity of the Somerset telecommunications (0.27). region. In this second scenario, there will be nearly 3,000 less people working in the Using standard population projection region and about 3,000 fewer jobs in the growth trends, these relativities do not region. significantly change over the next 30 years. Under this scenario, education (14.0%), health care and social assistance (12.7%) This means that without action to attract and agriculture, forestry and fishing (9.6%) new investment in knowledge sectors, will be the top employing industries. This Somerset will lag behind in industries that reflects a greater focus on service sectors. drive the new digital economies that are creating wealth and employment globally. The Economic Development Plan is focused on job creation – strengthening The Economic Development Plan aims to the economy, creating local jobs in the boost Somerset’s share of: region and retaining strong agriculture, Professionals and those in technical manufacturing and construction sectors in occupations living in the region – the economy. particularly information technology An industry specialisation ratio compares and knowledge industries. the industry sector employment Tourism. proportion in Somerset with the industry sector employment proportion for South Value adding of agricultural East Queensland. This ratio shows that production (manufacturing). Somerset has a comparative advantage in Somerset also needs to maintain its level these industry sectors: of services and capabilities in health, Agriculture, forestry and fishing – education, retail and other services 16.89 specialisation ratio needed for a vibrant community. (employment in Somerset in this While the region is close to the South East sector is 16.89 times the percentage of Queensland share of employment for arts agriculture employment in South East and recreation services (0.80), there are Queensland) at 2011. also opportunities to grow this important Manufacturing – 1.88. sector of the economy. Electricity, gas, water and waste Transport services – 1.44. The Somerset region is a corridor that Construction – 1.06. links regional Queensland to the larger market centres of Brisbane, Ipswich and Education and training – 1.19. the Sunshine Coast. Of significance for Somerset is the lower The D'Aguilar Highway and the Brisbane ratio for these important industry sectors: Valley Highway are vital highways that Professional and insurance services support the daily movement of residents (0.13). and visitors and facilitate