Economic Analysis of the Columbia Generating Station McCullough Research Robert McCullough Marc Vatter Rose Anderson Jil Heimensen Sean Long Christopher May Andrew Nisbet Garrett Oursland December 2013 MCCULLOUGH RESEARCH ROBERT F. MCCULLOUGH, JR. PRINCIPAL December 11, 2013 Dr. John Pearson Mr. Charles Johnson Oregon and Washington Physicians for Social Responsibility 812 SW Washington Street Suite 1050 Portland, Oregon 97205 RE: Economic Analysis of Columbia Generating Station (CGS) The report on Columbia Generating Station’s economics is attached below. I would like to thank you for the opportunity to return to a project I worked on in the 1980s. Energy Northwest (then the Washington Public Power Supply System) is a fascinating study with complex economics and a long and tangled history. While I respect your concerns about nuclear power, you will find little on the risks of nuclear generation in this report. Our mandate was quite narrow – to carefully consider the economics of CGS and its possible replacement with other supplies. Our conclusion, bolstered by many interviews with the project’s owners and operators, as well as with industry representatives throughout the region, is that CGS can be replaced at a significant cost savings to the region’s ratepayers and utilities – approximately a $1.7 billion dollar saving. Our recommendation is that BPA issue a Request For Proposals (RFP) for alternatives and displace the unit within the current institutional framework. The study has been unnecessarily complicated by a lack of transparency at Energy Northwest. Even the simplest requests have been delayed by months. In a number of cases, our request for materials already provided to the press has experienced a lengthy delay before response. We would like to thank Timothy Ford, the Washington State Assistant Attorney General for Government Accountability, and our liaison at BPA, Steven Weiss, for their help in working through these issues. Sincerely, Robert McCullough 6123 REED COLLEGE PLACE ● PORTLAND ● OREGON ● 97202 ● 503-777-4616 ● [email protected] MCCULLOUGH RESEARCH Economic Analysis of CGS December 11, 2013 Page 1 ________________ 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS 2 Executive Summary .................................................................................................. 7 2.1 Recommendations .................................................................................................. 14 2.2 The Bottom Line .................................................................................................... 15 3 The historical roots of nuclear generation in the Pacific Northwest .............. 17 3.1 Net Billing ................................................................................................................ 18 3.2 Hydro-Thermal Power Plan .................................................................................. 19 3.3 Cost Overruns and Construction delays ............................................................. 21 3.4 Changing regulations and legal problems ............................................................ 22 3.5 Shifting public opinion ........................................................................................... 23 3.6 Construction screeches to a halt ........................................................................... 23 3.7 Bond Defaults and Litigation ................................................................................ 25 3.8 Renaming WPPSS and CGS ................................................................................. 26 3.9 Competition Comes to the Pacific Northwest ................................................... 26 3.10 Repeating History ................................................................................................... 28 4 Review of the Washington Nuclear Project Number 2 (WNP-2 or CGS) .... 28 4.1 Technology and Operations .................................................................................. 30 4.1.1 Fukushima Dai-ichi Accident and Policy Responses ............................ 38 4.2 Governance and Ownership ................................................................................. 42 4.2.1 Cost and Operational Arrangements Outside of the 1971 Project Agreement ................................................................................................................ 51 4.2.2 A Case Study: Management Failure in the Replacement of CGS’s Steam Condenser .................................................................................................... 58 4.3 Costs ......................................................................................................................... 69 4.3.1 Historical Costs .......................................................................................... 69 4.3.2 Forecasted Costs ........................................................................................ 75 4.3.3 Bond Repayment ........................................................................................ 80 4.4 Transparency ........................................................................................................... 80 4.5 Economic Dispatch ................................................................................................ 83 4.6 Nuclear Fuel Cycle .................................................................................................. 86 4.6.1 Uranium Mining ......................................................................................... 88 4.6.2 Uranium Milling and Processing .............................................................. 88 MCCULLOUGH RESEARCH Economic Analysis of CGS December 11, 2013 Page 2 ________________ 4.6.3 Conversion .................................................................................................. 89 4.6.4 Enrichment ................................................................................................. 89 4.6.5 Uranium Tails Pilot Project ...................................................................... 91 4.6.6 Depleted Uranium Enrichment Program ............................................... 92 4.6.7 Emissions .................................................................................................... 93 4.7 CGS Life Expectancy ............................................................................................. 96 4.7.1 Kewaunee Nuclear Plant ........................................................................... 97 4.7.2 San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station (SONGS) ............................ 100 4.7.3 Crystal River 3 ........................................................................................... 101 4.7.4 West Coast Plants ..................................................................................... 102 4.7.5 Mark Cooper’s Renaissance in Reverse Report on Aging Nuclear Reactors .................................................................................................................. 107 4.7.6 Statistical Analysis of Plant Life Expectancy ........................................ 112 4.7.7 CGS Life Expectancy .............................................................................. 114 4.8 CGS Decommissioning Cost Escalation ........................................................... 117 4.8.1 The NRC Formula ................................................................................... 120 4.8.2 Site Restoration Costs .............................................................................. 128 4.8.3 Fuel Removal and Dry-Cask Storage .................................................... 128 4.8.4 Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982 ......................................................... 129 4.8.5 Waste Confidence Decision .................................................................... 133 4.8.6 Decommissioning Cost Escalation ........................................................ 133 5 The Market Test .................................................................................................... 137 5.1 Avoidable Costs .................................................................................................... 142 5.2 The FY 2015 Market Test ................................................................................... 143 5.3 Recommendation .................................................................................................. 145 5.4 Power Contracts .................................................................................................... 146 5.4.1 Contract Basics ......................................................................................... 148 5.4.2 Contract Comparison .............................................................................. 150 5.5 Long Term Cost Comparison ............................................................................. 150 5.6 AURORAxmp® Price Analysis ......................................................................... 153 5.6.1 AURORAxmp® ....................................................................................... 154 5.6.2 Inputs Specific to the CGS ..................................................................... 154 MCCULLOUGH RESEARCH Economic Analysis of CGS December 11, 2013 Page 3 ________________ 5.6.3 PHASE I: Acquisition, Retirement, and Operation of Generators with Expected Hydroelectric and Wind Output ....................................................... 156 5.6.4 PHASE II: Operation of Generators with Stochastic Hydroelectric and Wind Output .................................................................................................