ONE EURASIA OR MANY? Regional Interconnections and Connectivity Projects on the Eurasian Continent Alexander Libman Freie Universität Berlin National Research University Higher School of Economics East China Normal University Evgeny Vinokurov Eurasian Development Bank Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development Washington, D.C.: The George Washington University, Central Asia Program, 2021 www.centralasiaprogram.org Central Asia Program Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies Elliott School of International Affairs The George Washington University 1957 E St, NW, Suite 412, Washington DC 20052, USA For more on the Central Asia Program, please visit: www.centralasiaprogram.org. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission from the Central Asia Program. ISBN: 978-0-578-86820-2 © 2021 Central Asia Program, The George Washington University. All Rights Reserved. Cover design: Jennet Akmyradova Washington, D.C.: The George Washington University, Central Asia Program, 2021 List of Acronyms ADB Asian Development Bank AIIB Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank ALBA Bolivarian Alternative for the Latin America APEC Asia–Pacific Economic Cooperation ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASEM Asia–Europe Meeting AU African Union BRI Belt and Road Initiative BRICS Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa CAREC Central Asian Regional Economic Cooperation CCAP Connect Central Asia Policy CEE Central and Eastern Europe CETA Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement COMECON Council for Mutual Economic Assistance DCFTA Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement EAEC Eurasian Economic Commission EAEU Eurasian Economic Union EaP Eastern Partnership ENP European Neighborhood Policy ESCAP Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific EU European Union FDI Foreign Direct Investments GAFTA Greater Arab Free Trade Agreement GDP Gross Domestic Product GEP Greater Eurasian Partnership GUAM Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova INOGATE Interstate Oil and Gas Transportation to Europe LAIA Latin American Integration Association MERCOSUR Mercado Común del Sur (Common Market of the South) NAFTA North American Free Trade Association NDN Northern Distribution Network NSRI New Silk Road Initiative OAS Organization of American States OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development PQI Partnership for Quality Infrastructure PROSUR Forum for the Progress and Development of South America RCEP Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership SAARC South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organization SEA South-Eastern Europe SPECA Special Program for the Economies of Central Asia SRF Silk Road Fund SRRP Silk Road Regional Program TEU Twenty-Foot Equivalent Unit TPP Trans-Pacific Partnership TTIP Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership TRACECA Transport Corridor Europe–Caucasus–Asia UN United Nations UNASUR Union of South American Nations UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development UNDP United Nations Development Program UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for Europe US United States of America USSR Union of Soviet Socialist Republics WTO World Trade Organization 3 Table of Сontents List of Acronyms .................................................................................................................................... 3 Table of Сontents ................................................................................................................................... 5 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 7 2. The Meso Level of Continental Integration .................................................................................. 13 2.1. Defining the Meso Level of Regionalism ................................................................................ 13 2.2. Continents as Spaces for Regional Integration ...................................................................... 20 2.3. Challenges of Meso-Level Regionalism .................................................................................. 24 2.4. Regionalism in Greater Eurasia? ............................................................................................ 29 3. Building Blocks of Greater Eurasia ............................................................................................... 38 4. Regions of Overlap and Interconnection ....................................................................................... 47 4.1. Central Asia .............................................................................................................................. 47 4.2. Post-Soviet Eastern Europe ..................................................................................................... 55 5. One Eurasia or Many? Competing Connectivity Projects .......................................................... 61 5.1. China: the BRI .......................................................................................................................... 62 5.1.1. Origins of and Perspectives on the BRI ............................................................................... 62 5.1.2. Trans-Eurasian Container Traffic: From the Political to the Economic Rationale for the BRI ................................................................................................................................................ 70 5.2. Japan: The PQI ........................................................................................................................ 77 5.3. Russia: The GEP ...................................................................................................................... 79 5.3. The US: The NSRI .................................................................................................................... 84 5.5. EU: TRACECA and the EU–Asia Connectivity Strategy ..................................................... 87 5.6. India: The CCAP ...................................................................................................................... 91 6. Connecting Regions and Connectivity Projects ............................................................................ 94 6.1. The BRI and the EAEU ........................................................................................................... 94 6.2. The EU and the EAEU ............................................................................................................. 97 6.3. The SCO .................................................................................................................................. 100 6.4. 17+1 Cooperation between China and the CCE Countries ................................................ 104 6.5. ASEM ...................................................................................................................................... 107 7. Conclusion ...................................................................................................................................... 110 7.1. Key Findings ........................................................................................................................... 110 7.2. Post-COVID-19 Perspectives ................................................................................................. 114 References ........................................................................................................................................... 118 5 1. Introduction 2020-2021 seem an unlikely time to engage in research on global interconnections and integration. The COVID-19 pandemic put globalization processes on hold and, some speculate, may in the long run reverse the current trend toward a more intertwined and integrated world.1 At the same time, one should be cautious not to succumb to extreme gloom. As of December 2020, the number of Trans-Eurasia Express trains (commercial commodity transportation trains) departing from Urumqi toward Europe and the Middle East had increased compared to 2019—in spite of the spread of the coronavirus.2 The Trans-Eurasia Express is but one example of the rise in connections between different parts of the Eurasian continent over the last three decades. Infrastructural projects have been accompanied by the emergence of geoeconomic and geopolitical visions of an integrated Greater Eurasia, pursued by numerous power centers in the region, as well as by growing scholarly debate.3 1 “Historiker: Corona könnte zur ‘epochalen Zäsur’ warden,” Süddeutsche Zeitung, October 19, 2020, https://www.sueddeutsche.de/wissen/geschichte-historiker-corona-koennte-zur-epochalen-zaesur-werden- dpa.urn-newsml-dpa-com-20090101-201019-99-994794, accessed February 19, 2021; “Has Covid-19 Killed Globalisation?” The Economist, May 14, 2020, https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/05/14/has-covid-19- killed-globalisation, accessed February 19, 2021. 2 “Zahl von Trans-Eurasia-Express-Zügen aus internationalem Landhafen in Ürümqi steigt trotz COVID-19,” German.China.Org.Cn, December 2, 2020, http://german.china.org.cn/txt/2020-12/02/content_76971338.htm, accessed February 19, 2021. COVID-19 may actually have supported the development of railroad transit across Eurasia—see “Coronakrise lässt Güterverkehr über die Seidenstraße boomen,” Der Spiegel, January 12, 2021,