Absent Mandate? The Role of Positional Issues in Canadian Elections by Yannick Dufresne A thesis submitted in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Graduate Department of Political Science University of Toronto c Copyright 2015 by Yannick Dufresne Abstract Absent Mandate? The Role of Positional Issues in Canadian Elections Yannick Dufresne Doctor of Philosophy Graduate Department of Political Science University of Toronto 2015 Positional issues are political issues that generate disagreement among citizens and divide the electorate. Voting theories conventionally assume that positional issues have little effect on how individuals vote and that parties have little incentive to develop issue-based electoral strategies. Such a characterization of electoral dynamics is particularly prevalent in Canada. An enduring view holds that Canadian parties engage in \brokerage politics" wherein they avoid taking clear policy stances in order to avoid alienating segments of a fragmented electorate. This thesis challenges the conventional characterization of Canadian electoral dynamics by revisiting the role and impact of positional issues on electoral strategy. First, the results show that once measure- ment accuracy is improved and the heterogeneity of issue effects is taken into consideration, positional issues have non-negligible effects on individual vote choice. Second, the thesis demonstrates that the behaviour of Canadian political parties does not fully correspond to the brokerage party model. Parties can and do engage in behaviour prescribed by political marketing theory, to which positional issues are central. Positional issues are at the core of an exchange between citizens who care about a small set of issues and political parties who target these citizens using micro-campaigns. Ultimately, this thesis shows that political parties can use positional issues to increase their room for electoral manoeuvre. ii Acknowledgements I am deeply indebted to my adviser Neil Nevitte for the transformative role he has played in my life over the last seven years. Dr. Nevitte once told me that he thinks of his function as transferring his knowledge from his mind to the minds of his students. After much patience and perseverance, I hope that he feels that all the time and effort he has invested in my academic development has been worthwhile. To say that he has influenced me as a political scientist would sell short the impact he has had on my development. More than any other person, Dr. Nevitte has changed the way I read, think, and write. His rigour shall remain an inspiration and an example to which I will aspire for the rest of my career. I also wish to thank the other members of my committee: Drs. Richard Nadeau and Peter Loewen. Dr. Nadeau has been a mentor and a model to me for nearly a decade. I will never forget the uncondi- tional support and confidence he has offered me since I was his Master's student many years ago. Dr. Loewen has provided me with invaluable advice as my project developed from an intuition to a set of coherent ideas. He is one of the most talented young academics I have had the fortune to encounter and there is no doubt in my mind that his name on my doctoral thesis will be a matter of pride for years to come. I am greatly indebted to the internal and external reviewers of my dissertation, Drs. Nelson Wiseman and Eric´ B´elanger. Dr. Wiseman's influence on my development as a scholar of Canadian politics began early and has persisted in shaping the way I understand the Canadian political landscape. His guidance during my years as a teaching assistant for his Canadian politics course provided me invaluable pedagogical training that I am certain will be an asset to me all my career. Moreover, Dr. Eric´ B´elanger's careful and insightful evaluation of my thesis gave it the final pushes it needed to become a work of which I am wholeheartedly proud. Finally, I want to thank my colleagues and friends, old and new. Attempting to list all their names runs the risk of forgetting some. It would be an omission for which I would not be able to forgive myself. But all of them know who they are and how grateful I am for their encouragement and support. This is what friends are for. I have saved the last word of acknowledgment for my family, whose role in my life has been, and continues to be, immense. Merci. iii Contents Contents iv List of Figures viii List of Tables x 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Research Question . .4 1.2 Case Selection: Canada and Brokerage Politics . .7 1.3 Data . .9 1.4 Thesis Overview . 11 2 The Citizen Competence Problem in Voting Theories 16 2.1 From the Democratic Citizen to the Incompetent Voter . 21 2.1.1 The Rationality of the Classical Democratic Citizen . 22 2.1.2 The Columbia School: The Predetermination of the Self . 24 2.1.3 The Michigan School: Partisan First . 26 2.2 Giving the Voters a Break? Nuance in the Columbia and Michigan Models . 29 iv CONTENTS 2.2.1 Loosening Issue-Voting Requirements . 30 2.2.1.1 Information shortcuts: Making the Most of Limited Infor- mation . 31 2.2.1.2 Retrospective Voting and Valence issues . 32 2.2.1.3 Heterogeneity and Issue Publics . 34 2.2.2 Measures and Conceptualization . 37 2.3 Discussion . 41 3 Political Marketing: In Search of Room for Manoeuvre 43 3.1 The Advent of Political Marketing: Segmentation and Positioning . 44 3.1.1 What is Political Marketing? . 46 3.2 A Changing World? Post-Industrial Elections . 53 3.2.1 Convergence or Fragmentation? . 55 3.2.2 A Recent Increase in Issue Voting? . 59 3.3 Discussion . 61 4 A New Look at an Old Concept: Conceptualization, Measurement and Effects of Positional Issues 65 4.1 The Conceptual Status of Positional Issues: Ontological and Causal Con- fusion . 66 4.1.1 The Quest for the Essence of Vote: Rival concepts . 66 4.1.1.1 Party Identification: Causal Confusion . 68 4.1.1.2 Values: Ontological Confusion . 71 4.1.2 Messy Territory: Conceptualizing Positional Issues . 74 4.2 Hypotheses . 78 4.3 Methodology and Data . 79 v CONTENTS 4.4 Results . 80 4.5 Discussion . 88 5 Public Issues or Issue Publics? The Distribution of Genuine Political Attitudes 91 5.1 Heterogeneity and the Citizen Competence Problem . 94 5.1.1 A Black-And-White Electorate: Elite-Based Heterogeneity . 95 5.1.2 A Fragmented Electorate: Salience-Based Heterogeneity . 97 5.2 Hypotheses . 102 5.3 Methodology and Data . 102 5.4 Results . 104 5.5 Discussion . 108 6 Detecting Potential for Growth: Immigrants as Targetable Segments 112 6.1 Theory . 114 6.1.1 Immigrantness and the Welcoming Effect . 114 6.1.2 Minority Issues and the Alienation of Racial Minority Voters . 116 6.1.3 Cross-Pressured Targetable Segments . 118 6.2 Hypotheses . 122 6.3 Methodology and Data . 122 6.4 Results . 124 6.4.1 A Welcoming Effect? . 126 6.4.2 Immigrantness Versus Race . 129 6.4.3 Racial Minorities as Targeted Cross-Pressured Voters . 132 6.5 Discussion . 140 vi CONTENTS 7 Digging Deeper: The Micro-Targeting of Jewish and Muslim Voters 142 8 Conclusion 150 8.1 Macro- and Micro-Campaigns . 153 8.2 Potential for Future Research . 156 8.3 Normative Implications . 160 Appendix: Figures 161 Appendix: Tables 174 References 197 vii List of Figures 2.1 The Funnel of Causality . 28 3.1 The Political Marketing Exchange Process . 50 3.2 Three Types of Party Orientation . 52 4.1 The Various Foci of Issue Typologies . 77 4.2 Stability of Issue Attitudes . 82 4.3 Effect of Issue Items and Scales . 84 4.4 Effect of Issues, Values and Partisan Identifications . 85 4.5 Evolution of Issue Effects for Each Party . 87 5.1 Accessibility and Stability of Issue Attitudes . 106 5.2 The Effect of Issue Salience: Issue publics? . 107 5.3 Elites or Issue Publics? . 109 6.1 Minorities' Partisan Support Over Time . 125 6.2 Independent Effects of Immigrantness and Race on the Vote . 131 6.3 Immigrant and Racial Minorities' Ideological Positions and Resistance to the Conservatives . 134 viii LIST OF FIGURES 6.4 Riding-Level Effect of Issue-Public Proximity on Being a New Conservative Voter....................................... 139 7.1 Jewish and Muslim Voters' Ideology and Propensity to Vote Conservative . 145 1 Effect of issues on vote choice (Breakdown by issues) . 162 2 Effect of issues, values and partisan identifications on vote choice (Break- down by values and party identifications) . 163 3 Evolution of voters' most important issue . 164 4 The effect of voters' most important issue . 165 5 Increase in Issue Impact? (1) . 166 6 Increase in Issue Impact? (2) . 167 7 How Citizens Perceive Parties' Stands on Minority Matters . 168 8 Minorities' Partisan Support Through Time (Three main parties) . 169 9 Effect of Positional Issues on Issue publics in \very ethnic" targeted ridings 170 10 East-Asian and Hispanic Canadians' Ideological Positions and Resistance to Conservatives . 171 11 Evolution of the effect of being Jewish/Muslim on the vote for the Conser- vatives . 172 12 Evolution of the effect of being Jewish/Muslim on the vote for the Liberals 172 13 Evolution of the effect of being Jewish/Muslim on the vote for the NDP . 173 ix List of Tables 4.1 Eight Positional Issues . 81 6.1 The Welcoming-Party Effect: A Bonus for the Party in Power? . 128 6.2 Who Shifted? The New Conservative Voters of the 2011 Election . 133 6.3 Targeted Ridings: Race, Proximity on All Issues, or Issue Publics? .