islamists in a islamists in a changing changing middle east middle east Edited by Marc Lynch islamists in a changing middle east Edited by Marc Lynch © 2012 Foreign Policy, Published by The FP Group, a division of The Washington Post Company introduction 6 Introduction 9 The New Islamic Landscape 25 Al-Qaeda 32 Tunisia 58 Egypt 104 Yemen 114 Libya 138 North Africa 152 The Gulf 171 Syria 187 Palestine 3 introduction Islamists in a Changing Middle East brings together the best of the essays published about Islamist movements on ForeignPolicy.com’s The Middle East Channel (http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com) since the outbreak of the Arab uprisings in December 2010. The essays collected here represent only a small sample of the extraordinary reporting, analysis and intepretation produced by the community of scholars, journalists and activists who have contributed to the Middle East Channel since its launch in 2010. I would encourage readers who find this volume useful to also download our monthly topical POMEPS “Arab Uprisings” collections such as “Bahrain Burns” and “Jordan: Forever on the Brink” (all available as PDF downloads at http://www.pomeps.org). The essays collected here represent the collective work of a dedicated team over years. For helping to put the Middle East Channel together on a daily basis, I would like to thank Jonathan Guyer, Leila Hilal, David Kenner, Maria Kornalian, Tom Kutsch and Daniel Levy. I would also like to thank Susan Glasser and Blake Hounshell for their strategic guidance and ongoing support for the Middle East Channel, and their enthusiasm for this ebook experiment. I was very proud to learn that the Middle East Channel was named a finalist for a 2012 National Magazine Award for Digital Media (an “Ellie”) — thanks to the whole team for their contributions! I would particularly like to acknowledge Mary Casey, who has been an indomitable force since joining the Middle East Channel and the Project on Middle East Political Science. She has worked hard to make this volume a reality, while continuing her essential work on the Middle East Channel and on POMEPS. This book wouldn’t exist without her efforts. Also thanks to Jennifer King for designing all of the POMEPS collections, including this ebook. I would also like to offer a special note of thanks to Lauren Bohn and Tom Finn, who graciously shared some of their personal photos from around the Middle East for this volume. I would also like to thank the institutions which help make our work possible. Thanks to the Carnegie Corporation of New York and the Social Science Research Council for their ongoing support for the Project on Middle East Political Science, and to the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University for appreciating its scholarly and public value. All of my colleagues at the Institute for Middle East Studies have contributed in some way to this project; I would particularly single out Nathan Brown for his insights and assistance. Finally, as always, my greatest debt goes to my wife Lauren and to my amazingly talented children Sophia and Alec. And if I must, then grudging thanks to Jack, still the most annoying dog in the world. 4 introduction 5 introduction Islamist Movements After the Arab Uprising By Marc Lynch, June 7, 2012 In December 2011, I joined my George Washington University colleague Nathan Brown for an extended conversation with Deputy Supreme Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood Khairet el-Shater. The timing was oddly propitious, in that Brown had just published an outstanding book about Islamist parties in the Arab world entitled “When Victory is Not an Option.” But, as we explored with Shater, victory did suddenly seem to be a real possibility for the Muslim Brotherhood. How would this sudden opportunity, after decades of participation in an authoritarian system that would not allow them to actually win, affect their behavior, their ideology, or their internal organization? While Shater could only speculate about how the new environment would change the Brotherhood, the organization’s behavior suggested — at best — confusion. Shater himself was nominated as a candidate for the presidency, after the Brotherhood had insisted for months that it would not field one (after Shater’s disqualification, his place was taken by Mohamed Morsi, who advanced to the run-off to be held on June 18). This followed massive Islamist victories in parliamentary elections, their controversial domination of the selection of an assembly to write a new constitution, and growing mistrust and anger between them and revolutionary forces upset with their failure to support street protests against the military leadership. For many, the Muslim Brotherhood seemed to be gambling to seize all power in the new Egypt…even as their own leaders saw themselves as besieged on all sides. The rise of Islamist power in Egypt had parallels across the region, as Islamist parties took leading roles in post-revolutionary Tunisia and Libya, played a key part in the Syrian and Yemeni uprisings, and won elections in Morocco and Kuwait. The rise of Islamist movements in the Arab countries that have undergone political upheavals over the last year has startled and disturbed many once- enthusiastic observers. Pessimists lament that the “Arab Spring” has given way to an “Islamic Winter,” and warn gloomily that the overthrowing of dictators is only empowering a new generation of religious fanatics. But it is far too soon for such despair. Islamist movements were well positioned to take advantage of political openings, and have indeed taken the lead in many of the transitions. The once repressed and tightly controlled Islamist movements are now in the position to at least attempt to act on their beliefs. Their success should not have come as a surprise. These movements have been reshaping the public culture of the Arab world for decades, and have long been the best-organized and most popular political movements in most Arab countries. No observer of the region could have failed to note the steady growth of Islamic public culture or the formidable political machines of Muslim Brotherhood-style movements wherever they were allowed to operate. Islamists were naturally well positioned to take advantage of the political openings in many Arab states that followed the great protest wave of 2011. But who are these movements? What do they want? And how will they shape — and be shaped by —the new politics of the region? 6 introduction This collection of essays from the Middle East Channel onForeignPolicy.com offers deep insights into the evolution of the Islamist movements which are playing such a crucial role in the unfolding of a new Middle East. They offer accessible, deeply informed analysis that can help to correct many of the misconceptions about such movements while also drawing attention to very real dangers. In the essays to follow, academic experts and journalists on the ground go deep inside Islamic parties in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Morocco, and more. These essays were written in real time, in response to particular circumstances and challenges, and have been only lightly edited and updated for this volume in order to retain the urgency and passion with which they were written. The essays offer snapshots of a political moment, informed by deep experience and long study of these movements and the countries within which they operate. They have enduring value. One point which quickly emerges from the essays is simply how disorienting the newly open political vistas have been for Islamists. It is not only foreign observers who have miscalculated. At one point in the summer of 2011, a leader of the Egyptian Salafi party, al-Nour, told me that if all went well his party might win four or five seats; it won over 100. The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood was comfortable in opposition but now has struggled to deal with its own ascendance, as it suffers internal fissures and unprecedented public scrutiny. Ennahda may have swept elections, but only two years ago it did not even exist inside of Tunisia and has faced great challenges in re-establishing itself. The same can be said of Libyan and Syrian Islamists who for many years were forced to operate underground or in exile. Another is the extent to which the Islamists themselves are divided, confused, and struggling to adapt to the new realities that they confront. The Muslim Brotherhood is not al Qaeda, the Global Muslim Brotherhood Organization exercises little control over its national branches, and Salafi and Muslim Brotherhood parties are competing furiously for votes. Islamist political parties have to calculate their strategy in uncertain legal and political environments, weigh both domestic and international calculations, and decide how to reconcile their ideals with the demands of practical politics. Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood finds itself facing such suspicion from angry revolutionaries that many, shockingly, seem prepared to vote instead for the old regime’s candidate Ahmed Shafiq. The success of these movements is difficult to dispute, at least in the short term. In Tunisia, the Islamist Ennahda party emerged from decades of complete exclusion from public life to sweep the foundational election and dominate the constitutional assembly. In Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood and new Salafi parties dominated the first parliamentery elections and the constitutional assembly that followed. In Morocco, the Justice and Development Party (PJD) took a plurality of seats in parliamentary elections called following the king’s limited constitutional reforms. Islamist groups of various forms played a key role in both the Libyan and Syrian uprisings and the violence that followed. There is little doubt that Islamist movements will do well in almost any country that allows elections in the coming years.