READINGS IN EUROPEAN SECURITY READINGS IN EUROPEAN SECURITY VOLUME 2 CHAIRMAN: FRANÇOIS HEISBOURG EDITORS: DANA H. ALLIN MICHAEL EMERSON & MARIUS VAHL CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES BRUSSELS INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY STUDIES LONDON This volume of Readings in European Security contains the papers commissioned for presentation and discussion at the meetings of the CEPS- IISS European Security Forum (ESF) in the period from 25 November 2002 to 12 December 2003. They have been previously published in the European Security Forum Working Paper series, nos. 10-15. CEPS and IISS gratefully acknowledge financial support received for the European Security Forum from the Compagnia di San Paolo, the US Mission to the EU and NATO. ISBN 92-9079-468-2 © Copyright 2004, Centre for European Policy Studies & International Institute for Security Studies. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means – electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise – without the prior permission of the Centre for European Policy Studies or the International Institute for Security Studies. Centre for European Policy Studies International Institute for Strategic Studies Place du Congrès 1 Arundel House 1000 Brussels, Belgium 13-15 Arundel Street, Temple Place Tel: 32 (0) 2 229.39.11 London WC2R 3DX, United Kingdom Fax: 32 (0) 2 219.41.51 Tel: 44 (0) 20 7379 7676 E-mail: [email protected] Fax: 44 (0) 20 7836 3108 Website: http://www.ceps.be E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.iiss.org READINGS IN EUROPEAN SECURITY VOLUME 2 CONTRIBUTORS DANA H. ALLIN GORDON ADAMS HÜSEYIN BAGCI HENRY J. BARKEY KLAUS BECHER CARL BILDT DIMITRY A. DANILOV YURI E. FEDOROV FRANÇOIS HEISBOURG SABAN KARDAS ROBERTO MENOTTI ALEXANDER I. NIKITIN VLADIMIR A. ORLOV NATALIA OULTCHENKO GARY SAMORE BURKARD SCHMITT STEVEN SIMON WALTER B. SLOCOMBE MICHAEL STÜRMER BRUNO TERTRAIS NATHALIE TOCCI IRINA ZVYAGELSKAYA Contents FOREWORD FRANÇOIS HEISBOURG i EUROPEAN AND TRANSATLANTIC DEFENCE-INDUSTRIAL STRATEGIES INTRODUCTION KLAUS BECHER 1 TRANSATLANTIC DEFENCE-INDUSTRIAL COOPERATION AND AMERICAN POLICY: AN AMERICAN VIEW GORDON ADAMS 7 EUROPEAN AND TRANSATLANTIC DEFENCE-INDUSTRIAL STRATEGIES: A EUROPEAN VIEW BURKARD SCHMITT 21 PRE-EMPTIVE MILITARY ACTION AND THE LEGITIMATE USE OF FORCE INTRODUCTION FRANÇOIS HEISBOURG 29 PRE-EMPTIVE MILITARY ACTION AND THE LEGITIMATE USE OF FORCE: A EUROPEAN VIEW CARL BILDT 32 PRE-EMPTIVE MILITARY ACTION AND THE LEGITIMATE USE OF FORCE: A RUSSIAN VIEW ALEXANDER I. NIKITIN 43 PRE-EMPTIVE MILITARY ACTION AND THE LEGITIMATE USE OF FORCE: AN AMERICAN VIEW WALTER B. SLOCOMBE 51 THE FUTURE OF THE NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION REGIME THE FUTURE OF THE NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION REGIME: AN AMERICAN VIEW GARY SAMORE 64 THE NEW DYNAMICS OF NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION: A EUROPEAN VIEW BRUNO TERTRAIS 71 THE FUTURE OF THE NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION REGIME: A RUSSIAN VIEW VLADIMIR A. ORLOV 75 TURKEY’S STRATEGIC FUTURE INTRODUCTION FRANÇOIS HEISBOURG 83 TURKEY’S STRATEGIC FUTURE: ANCHORING TURKEY TO EUROPE, THE FOREIGN POLICY CHALLENGES AHEAD NATHALIE TOCCI 87 TURKEY’S STRATEGIC FUTURE: AN AMERICAN VIEW HENRI J. BARKEY 93 TURKEY’S STRATEGIC FUTURE: A RUSSIAN VIEW NATALIA OULTCHENKO 99 TURKEY’S STRATEGIC FUTURE, POST-11 SEPTEMBER IMPACT: THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF TURKEY REVISITED HÜSEYIN BAGCI AND SABAN KARDAS 105 EUROPEAN SECURITY STRATEGY: IS IT FOR REAL? INTRODUCTION FRANÇOIS HEISBOURG 150 ‘OLD’ AND ‘NEW’ EUROPE: A RUSSIAN VIEW YURI. E. FEDOROV 154 EUROPEAN SECURITY STRATEGY: IS IT FOR REAL? ROBERTO MENOTTI 165 AMERICA: NO TIME FOR STRATEGIC THINKING: AN AMERICAN VIEW DANA H. ALLIN 176 WHAT STRATEGY FOR THE GREATER MIDDLE EAST? INTRODUCTION FRANÇOIS HEISBOURG 182 WHAT STRATEGY FOR THE GREATER MIDDLE EAST? A EUROPEAN VIEW MICHAEL STÜRMER 185 A GRAND STRATEGY FOR THE MIDDLE EAST: AN AMERICAN VIEW STEVEN SIMON 195 WHAT STRATEGY FOR THE GREATER MIDDLE EAST? A RUSSIAN VIEW IRINA ZVYAGELSKAYA 202 ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS 208 Foreword his second volume of Readings in European Security vividly reflects the continuing changes that profoundly affect the factors shaping the Tsecurity of the European continent. For a historian in the future, the work undertaken by the CEPS-IISS European Security Forum since 2001 will appear in sharp contrast to the sort of issues that were at the heart of security concerns during the 1970s and 1980s, dominated by East-West confrontation. Where neutron bombs and Pershing missiles reigned supreme alongside ‘approximate parity’ and ‘launch-on-warning’ policies (against the backdrop of the scholastics of deterrence theory), we now have an incredibly broad spectrum not only of issues – from the Greater Middle East to the defence industrial base – but also of levels of analysis. For example, the legitimacy of the use of force, in the form of preventive action, is not precisely of the same make as the specialist questioning of Turkey’s strategic position after the attacks of 11 September 2001. It isn’t so much that the issues presented in the Readings in European Security volumes are intrinsically ‘new’ in the sense that they never existed before; rather, they simply weren’t seen as first- order strategic questions to some extent. The current salience of the issues selected for discussion by the European Security Forum is the mechanical consequence of the disappearance of the overarching East-West conflict with the cold war, which leads to the (re)discovery of so-called ‘new’ problems. This discovery is notably the case with nuclear proliferation and the spread of ballistic missiles. Such quintessential ‘emerging threats’ are as old as the Manhattan Project and Operation Paper Clip.1 Much more fundamentally, however, two of the terms in the European Security Forum’s title have changed profoundly. First, the nature of the threats to international security have changed in their content, not simply by virtue of the disappearance of a set of state actors (the USSR, the Warsaw Pact and the Yugoslavian federation) or the changes involving another set of states (the democratisation of America’s East Asian allies, the runaway economic growth of China, etc.). More basically, the empowerment of non- state actors along with the other facets of the broad array of phenomena characterising ‘globalisation’ forces us to think anew about traditional issues, not least about those concerning proliferation, but also about the pre-emptive use of force and indeed (albeit from a very different point of view) the Greater Middle East. Although, in the latter case, there is little that is new about the topic as such – this is the region Zbigniew Brzezinski dubbed the 1 Operation Paper Clip was the American code name for the transfer of Nazi-era scientists from Germany to the US, France, the USSR and Britain after World War II. | i ii | READINGS IN EUROPEAN SECURITY ‘arc of crisis’ a quarter of a century ago – the challenges prevailing in, and posed by, that region are now directly linked to the fraught interaction between the forces of globalisation on the one hand, and the reaction to it on the other, with empowerment of non-state actors (civil society sometimes, and alas, al Qaeda no less) as a common factor. Even a topic such as the European defence industrial base has to be approached in a manner that would have been difficult to conceive 15 or 20 years ago. Not only do military requirements no longer drive technological innovation, but the future of the defence industry is increasingly tied to its ability – and the ability of its customers – to benefit from the galloping pace of the information revolution. Here too, the forces of globalisation tear away at the statist and national protections of Europe’s cold war-era defence industrial base. Indeed, the way in which we have to think about security is changing, because of the way the international system is changing. The rules of the game are being rewritten in a manner that can only be compared with the definitions in 16th and 17th century Europe of the extent and limits of state sovereignty. Second, while the conditions of security have been undergoing dramatic change, Europe has transformed itself no less radically, which has in turn raised new questions. Some of these European transformations are common to all societies, with Europe feeling the impact of globalisation no less than other parts of the world; and although Europe is an important actor of globalisation, the process of globalisation itself is not an intrinsically European product. Many of the changes are the result of an outside event, such as the collapse of the Soviet Union’s will to exist. Europe played a contributing role to undermining the Soviet Union’s ability and desire to function as an imperial power in the satellite nations of the Warsaw Pact as within its own borders. But ultimately, the processes undermining the Soviet empire, and notably the resistance of the captive nations, affected Europe more than Europe affected them. Conversely, the countries and the peoples of what is called the European Union were the prime movers of the gradual establishment of the quite unique multilateral construct arising from the European integration process – or, more precisely in its French formulation, la construction européenne. Through thick and thin, 25 European states are now part of an entity that is neither a superstate nor a superpower on the world scene (except in the area of foreign trade), yet the EU is much more than an international organisation. It is a sort of hybrid: the EU generates possibly more than 50% of the laws and rules under which its members are governed; however, it has not federalised traditional attributes of sovereignty such as diplomacy or an armed force – though it has created a single currency. It is not surprising that our Russian and American friends sometimes have difficulty in taking stock of this ‘neither fish nor fowl’ entity.