E MARINE ENVIRONMENT PROTECTION MEPC 67/INF.3 COMMITTEE 25 July 2014 67th session ENGLISH ONLY Agenda item 6 REDUCTION OF GHG EMISSIONS FROM SHIPS Third IMO GHG Study 2014 – Final Report Note by the Secretariat SUMMARY Executive summary: This document provides in the annex the complete final report of the "Third IMO GHG Study 2014", which provides an update of the estimated GHG emissions for international shipping in the period 2007 to 2012. The executive summary can also be found in document MEPC 67/6. Strategic direction: 7.3 High-level action: 7.3.2 Planned output: 7.3.2.1 Action to be taken: Paragraph 1 Related document: MEPC 67/6 Action requested of the Committee 1 The Committee is invited to note the complete final report of the Third IMO GHG Study 2014, as the basis of the findings of the report's executive summary, set out in document MEPC 67/6. *** I:\MEPC\67\INF-3.doc MEPC 67/INF.3 Annex Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Executive Summary and Final Report, June 2014 Consortium members: Data partners: H:\MEPC\67\INF-3-Annex Report Contents Report Contents ..................................................................................................................... 1 Report Figures ....................................................................................................................... 3 Report Tables ......................................................................................................................... 7 Preface ................................................................................................................................. 10 List of abbreviations and acronyms ...................................................................................... 11 Key definitions ...................................................................................................................... 12 Executive Summary………………………………………………………………………………….13 Key findings from the Third IMO GHG Study 2014 ........................................................... 13 Aim and objective of the study .......................................................................................... 18 Structure of the study and scope of work .......................................................................... 19 Summary of Section 1: Inventories of CO2 from international shipping ............................. 20 2012 fuel consumption and CO2 emissions by ship type ...............................................20 2007–2012 fuel consumption by bottom-up and top-down methods: Third IMO GHG Study 2014 and Second IMO GHG Study 2009 ......................................................................21 2007–2012 trends in CO2 emissions and drivers of emissions ......................................25 Summary of Section 2: Inventories of GHGs and other relevant substances from international shipping ........................................................................................................ 29 Summary of Section 3: Scenarios for shipping emissions ................................................. 32 Maritime transport demand projections .........................................................................32 Maritime emissions projections .....................................................................................34 Summary of the data and methods used (Sections 1, 2 and 3) ......................................... 37 Key assumptions and method details ...........................................................................37 Inventory estimation methods overview (Sections 1 and 2) ...........................................37 Scenario estimation method overview (Section 3) ........................................................41 1. Inventories of CO2 from international shipping 2007–2012 ........................................... 42 1.1. Top-down CO2 inventory calculation method......................................................... 42 1.1.1. Introduction ...................................................................................................42 1.1.2. Methods for review of IEA data......................................................................42 1.1.3. Top-down fuel consumption results ...............................................................43 1.2. Bottom-up CO2 inventory calculation method ........................................................ 47 1.2.1. Overall bottom-up approach ..........................................................................47 1.2.2. Summary of data and method input revisions ................................................48 1.2.3. Aggregation of ship types and sizes ..............................................................50 1.2.4. Estimating activity using AIS data ..................................................................51 1.2.5. Ship technical data ........................................................................................51 1.2.6. Sources and alignment/coverage of data sources .........................................52 1.2.7. Bottom-up fuel and emissions estimation ......................................................54 1.2.8. Classification to international and domestic fuel consumption .......................54 1.3. Inventories of CO2 emissions calculated using both the top-down and bottom-up methods ........................................................................................................................... 57 1.3.1. CO2 emissions and fuel consumption by ship type ........................................57 1.3.2. CO2 and fuel consumption for multiple years 2007–2012 ..............................61 1.3.3. Trends in emissions and drivers of emissions 2007–2012 .............................63 1.3.4. Variability between ships of a similar type and size and the impact of slow steaming 67 1.3.5. Shipping’s CO2e emissions ...........................................................................72 1.3.6. Shipping as a share of global emissions ........................................................73 1.4. Quality assurance and control of top-down and bottom-up inventories .................. 76 1.4.1. Top-down QA/QC ..........................................................................................76 1.4.2. Top-down QA/QC efforts specific to this study ..............................................78 1.4.3. Bottom-up QA/QC .........................................................................................80 1.4.4. Comparison of top-down and bottom-up inventories.................................... 102 1.5. Analysis of the uncertainty of the top-down and bottom-up CO2 inventories ........ 106 1 1.5.1. Top-down inventory uncertainty analysis ..................................................... 106 1.5.2. Bottom-up inventory uncertainty analysis .................................................... 107 1.6. Comparison of the CO2 inventories in this study to the IMO GHG Study 2009 inventories ...................................................................................................................... 109 2. Inventories of emissions of GHGs and other relevant substances from international shipping 2007–2012 ........................................................................................................... 114 2.1. Top-down other relevant substances inventory calculation method ..................... 114 2.1.1. Method for combustion emissions ............................................................... 114 2.1.2. Methane slip ................................................................................................ 115 2.1.3. Method for estimation for non-combustion emissions .................................. 115 2.2. Bottom-up other relevant substances emissions calculation method ................... 121 2.2.1. Method ........................................................................................................ 121 2.2.2. Main engine(s) ............................................................................................ 121 2.2.3. Auxiliary engines ......................................................................................... 121 2.2.4. Boilers ......................................................................................................... 122 2.2.5. Operating modes ......................................................................................... 122 2.2.6. Non-combustion emissions ......................................................................... 122 2.2.7. Combustion emissions factors ..................................................................... 123 2.3. Other relevant substances emissions inventories for 2007–2012 ........................ 132 2.3.1. Top-down fuel inventories ........................................................................... 133 2.3.2. Top-down GHG inventories ......................................................................... 134 2.3.3. Top-down pollutant emission inventories ..................................................... 134 2.3.4. Bottom-up Fuel inventories .......................................................................... 137 2.3.5. Bottom-up GHG inventories ........................................................................ 137 2.3.6. Bottom-up pollutant inventories ................................................................... 138 2.4. Quality assurance and quality control of other relevant substances emissions inventories .....................................................................................................................