Opening Bell July 1, 2020 Market Outlook Today’s Highlights Indian markets are likely to open with a flat to negative bias Events - India Nikkei Manufacturing Markit on the back of mixed global cues and indications of no near- PMI, EU Manufacturing PMI term respite from the pandemic as government extended the food aid till November. Global news flows and virus tackling measures in India would be key monitorables. Index Movement 10600 Markets Yesterday 35600 . Domestic markets ended marginally lower tracking mixed 34600 10200 though largely positive global cues 33600 9800 32600 9400 . US markets ended sharply higher following continued 31600 optimism about the economic outlook and release of better 30600 9000 than expected June consumer confidence data 29600 8600 Key Developments BSE (LHS) NSE (RHS) C lose Previous C hg (%) MTD(%) YTD(%) P/E (1yrfwd) . Output of eight core industries fell 23.4% in May 2020 S ensex 34,916 34,962 -0.1 7.7 -15.4 23.1 (37% decline in April 2020) on account of Covid-19 related Nifty 10,302 10,312 -0.1 7.5 -15.3 22.7 lockdown. Except for fertiliser production, which grew 7.5% YoY in May 2020, all other sectors - coal (14.0%), Institutional Activity crude oil (7.1%), natural gas (16.8%), refinery products C Y18 C Y19 YTD C Y20 Yesterday Last 5 Days (21.3%), steel (48.4%), cement (22.2%) and electricity F II (| cr) -68,503 40,893 -70,450 -2,000 -1,805 (15.6%) recorded a decline in production D II (| cr) 107,388 44,478 95,352 2,051 1,014 . As per RBI data, gross bank credit decelerated to 7% YoY World Indices – Monthly performance to | 91.08 lakh crore in May 2020 led by slower loan BSE NSE G ermany Nasdaq S hanghai growth to medium and large industries while micro and 34,916 10,302 12,311 10,059 2,985 small segment loan growth was healthy. Retail credit 7.7% 7.5% 6.3% 5.3% 4.6% contracted 2.9% to | 27.78 lakh crore while housing loans K ospi F rance Nikkei D ow Jones U .K . declined 0.7% to | 13.29 lakh crore. On account of 2,108 4,936 22,288 25,813 6,170 3.9% 3.6% 1.9% 1.3% 0.1% lockdown, overall credit shrunk 1.7% in May 2020 against March 2020 levels Nifty Heat Map S hree 23,051 5,838 17,174 IC IC I 351 3,604 Maruti Nestle Britannia C ement 3.2% 2.8% 2.7% Bank 2.4% 2.4% U ltratec 3,894 T ata 327 H ero 2,547 18,334 Bharti 222 E icher h 2.3% S teel 1.8% Moto 1.7% 1.2% Infratel 1.0% 96 H D F C 1,755 944 511 736 NTPC L&T M&M Infosys 0.9% Ltd 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% Markets Today (ADR Data not updated) H C l 557 Axis 407 Adani 344 K otak 1,360 543 T echM Commodities C lose Previous C hng (%) MTD(%) YTD(%) T ech 0.6% Bank 0.5% P orts 0.4% Bank 0.4% 0.3% G old (|/10 gm) 48,730 48,244 1.0 3.6 23.6 146 G rasim 620 220 2,180 Asian 1,687 H indalco Wipro HUL Silver (|/kg) 50,300 48,983 2.7 -3.3 3.8 0.2% Ind 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% P aints -0.3% Crude ($/barrel) 41.2 41.7 -1.3 16.7 -37.5 178 171 JS W 189 640 3,945 C opper ($/tonne) 6,015 5,962 0.9 11.2 -3.2 SBI Z ee E nt. C ipla D r R eddy -0.4% -0.6% S teel -0.7% -0.7% -0.7% C urrency U S D /INR 75.5 75.4 0.1 0.1 -5.5 Bajaj 5,845 950 2,082 Bajaj 2,831 H D F C 1,066 T itan TCS E U R /U S D 1.1 1.1 -0.3 0.9 -0.1 F inserv -0.8% -0.8% -0.9% F inance -0.9% Bank -0.9% U S D /Y E N 107.7 107.9 -0.1 0.1 0.8 Indusind 475 R eliance 1,704 Bajaj 2,826 T ata 98 81 ADR s ONGC Bank -1.1% Ind. -1.1% Auto -1.2% Motors -1.2% -1.3% H D F C Bank 45.6 45.1 1.2 9.1 -28.0 Bharti 560 195 102 106 C oal 133 IC IC I Bank 9.1 9.1 0.8 4.8 -39.6 IT C G AIL V edanta T ata Motors 6.7 6.6 1.7 17.5 -48.1 Airtel -1.3% -1.3% -1.4% -1.4% India -1.5% Infosys 9.6 9.5 0.4 5.2 -7.3 425 S un 473 P ower 175 85 374 UPL IO C BPCL Dr Reddys Labs 53.0 52.2 1.6 -0.8 30.7 P harma G rid -1.6% -1.9% -1.9% -2.0% -2.4% Wipro 3.3 3.3 0.0 -1.2 -12.8 Opening Bell ICICI Direct Research Key Data Points Exchange Cash Turnover (| crore) Key Econom ic Indicator Pe rio d L ate s t Prior Values 100000 RBI Cash Reserve Ratio N/A 3.00% 4.00% 64,718 74,470 68,567 56,007 49,181 RBI Repo Rate N/A 4.00% 4.40% 49,139 RBI Reverse Repo Rate N/A 3.35% 3.75% 50000 22,503 CPI Y Y Mar 5.84% 6.58% 7,588 4,228 3,852 3,718 2,988 Current Account Balance Q4 -1.4bln $ -6.5bln $ 0 Exports - USD May 19.05 bln$ 10.36 bln$ 23-Jun 24-Jun 25-Jun 26-Jun 29-Jun 30-Jun FX Reserves, USD Final A pr 485.31 bln$ 479.5 bln$ BSE Cash NSE Cash GDP Quarterly yy Q 1CY 20 3.10% 4.70% GDP Annual FY 20 4.20% 6.10% Imports - USD May 22.2 bln $ 17.1 bln $ NSE Derivative Turnover (| crore) Industrial Output yy Mar -16.70% 4.60% 5000000 Manufacturing Output Mar -20.60% 3.10% 4000000 Bell Opening Trade Deficit Govt - USD May 3.15 bln $ 6.8 bln $ 3000000 4,169,243 2,255,548 WPI Food yy Mar 4.91% 7.80% 2000000 1,382,702 1,079,855 956,204 WPI Fuel yy Mar -10.12% -1.76% 852,956 1000000 WPI Inflation yy Mar 1.00% 2.26% WPI Manuf Inflation yy Mar 0.34% 0.42% 0 23-Jun 24-Jun 25-Jun 26-Jun 29-Jun 30-Jun NSE Derivative Corporate Action Tracker Sectoral Performance – Monthly Returns (%) Security nam e Actio n Ex Date Record Date Statu s Price (|) BSE Small Cap 13.7 Sun Pharma Buyback O ngoing 425.00 Real Estate 12.0 Sterlite Technologies Buyback O ngoing 150.00 BSE Midcap 10.2 Banks 9.7 Kalpataru Power Buyback O ngoing 275.00 PSU 8.5 Castrol India Dividend 26-Jun-20 29-Jun-20 3.00 Auto 8.4 Natco Pharma Dividend 26-Jun-20 29-Jun-20 1.00 Consumer Durables 7.2 Oil & Gas 7.0 Sanofi Dividend 29-Jun-20 - 349.00 Power 6.3 Nippon Life AMC Dividend 29-Jun-20 30-Jun-20 2.00 Metals 5.9 Hexaware Tech Dividend 30-Jun-20 1-Jul-20 3.00 IT 5.8 Capital Goods 4.3 Research Equity Retail Balrampur Chini Buyback 2-Jul-20 3-Jul-20 Healthcare 3.9 – HPCL Dividend 2-Jul-20 9.75 FMCG 3.3 Mphasis Dividend 2-Jul-20 35.00 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 Sundaram Finance Dividend 2-Jul-20 3.00 (%) Swaraj Engines Dividend 2-Jul-20 40.00 ICICI Securities Key News for Today Company/ News View Impact Industry ONGC ONGC revenues fell 9.5% QoQ to | 21456.2 In the current quarter, Brent oil prices fell crore due to lower realisations. EBITDA sharply up to US$20/bbl and are currently at declined 30.2% QoQ to | 8587.9 crore due US$41/bbl, which is affecting ONGC's to higher other expenses. Exploratory, profitability. Natural gas demand was down DD&A expenses at | 8037 crore and an 9% during lockdown but has now exceptional loss of | 4899.1 crore towards recovered. Low domestic gas prices impairment of assets impacted profitability. following price revision in April is also a The company reported a net loss of | 3098.3 concern. The movement in oil & gas prices crore will be the most important variable for ONGC's performance, going ahead ICICI Securities | Retail Research Opening Bell ICICI Direct Research Jindal JSPL has accepted a binding offer from Jindal Shadeed Iron and Steel Company has Steel & Templar Investment to divest its entire stake a steel making capacity of 2.4 million tonnes Power in its Oman asset , Jindal Shadeed Iron and per annum (MTPA). In FY20, this facility (JSPL) Steel company LLC. The enterprise value of operated at ~80% capacity utilisation the deal is over US$1 billion producing 1.87 MT and selling 1.88 MT. This transaction will aid in reducing JSPL's consolidated debt and deleverage its balance-sheet, thereby auguring well for the company Midhani Midhani reported subdued Q4FY20 In its provisional numbers in April, Midhani numbers.