For reprint orders, please contact: [email protected] Editorial Results of effectiveness trials of PRO Microbiology Future 2000 gel: lessons for future microbicide trials “Despite numerous scientific, ethical and methodological challenges, microbicides provide real potential to influence the course of the HIV epidemic as they could fill an important gap for women-initiated prevention methods.” Salim S Abdool Karim Centre for the AIDS Program of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), University of KwaZulu-Natal, Private Bag X7, Congella 4013, South Africa n Tel.: +27 312 604 550 n Fax: +27 312 604 549 n [email protected] In sub-Saharan Africa there is a disproportionate interpreted as being consistent with this outcome burden of HIV in young women [1]. Microbicides since the 95% confidence intervals of the risk are products that can be applied to the vagina or ratios for both trials included zero effect. In this rectum with the intention of reducing the acqui- case, the point estimate of 5% increase in HIV sition of sexually transmitted infections, includ- incidence observed in the 0.5% PRO 2000 group ing HIV, in women. If proven to be effective at of the MDP 301 trial and the point estimate of reducing incident HIV infections, microbicides 30% reduction in HIV incidence observed in could fill an important HIV prevention gap, the 0.5% PRO 2000 group of the HPTN 035 especially for those women who are unable to trial is variability due purely to chance. While successfully negotiate mutual monogamy or con- the observed effect in the HPTN 035 trial is suf- dom use. Microbicides have the potential to alter ficiently distant from zero effect to suggest that the trajectory of the HIV epidemic in southern PRO 2000 may have some benefit, the p-value of Africa [2]. 0.10 meant that there was still an unacceptably To date, every effectiveness trial of candidate high likelihood that PRO 2000 is not effective microbicides has shown no impact on HIV at all. acquisition [3–8]. Indeed, trials of two products, In scenario two, PRO 2000 has a moderate COL-1492 [7] and cellulose sulfate [8], showed protective effect against HIV infection. A moder- trends toward increased risk of HIV infection. ate effect of up to 18% protection is not inconsis- The recently completed HIV Prevention Trials tent with the results of the two trials as this level Network (HPTN) 035 trial of 0.5% PRO of protection is within the upper bounds of the 2000 gel demonstrated a modest 30% reduc- 95% confidence intervals of the risk ratios from tion in HIV incidence in a four-arm study both studies. “Microbicides have the of 3099 women with 87 HIV infections in In scenario three, PRO 2000 has a substan- potential to alter the the PRO 2000 and placebo arms of this trial tial protective effect against HIV infection of, trajectory of the (risk ratio: 0.70) [9]. However, this effect on say, 55%. In this scenario, both trials may have HIV epidemic in HIV infection was not statistically significant produced underestimates of the ‘true’ effect. The southern Africa.” (p = 0.1). Subsequent findings from the almost upper bounds of the 95% confidence intervals of threefold larger Microbicide Development the risk ratios from both trials exclude this level Program (MDP) 301 trial, which had 0.5% of effect. While this scenario is unlikely, if it did PRO 2000 and placebo groups comprising 6268 occur, the underestimate would be most likely women with 253 HIV infections, showed that due to suboptimal adherence. Inadequate adher- 0.5% PRO 2000 had no protective effect against ence, especially in relation to exposure to HIV, is HIV infection (risk ratio: 1.05) [101]. one of the most serious threats that could under- mine a microbicide trial’s ability to demonstrate How should the different outcomes from an accurate level of efficacy of the product[10] . In these two trials be interpreted? microbicide trials, the effectiveness of a product There are three scenarios worthy of exploration. is dependent on both the efficacy of the product In scenario one, where PRO 2000 has no protec- and the participants’ willingness and ability to use part of tive effect against HIV infection, both the MDP the product as instructed. For example, trials with 301 trial and HPTN 035 trial results could be only 50% adherence will be able to demonstrate, 10.2217/FMB.10.29 © 2010 Future Medicine Ltd Future Microbiol. (2010) 5(4), 527–529 ISSN 1746-0913 527 Editorial Abdool Karim at most, half the true efficacy of a short-acting Despite numerous scientific, ethical and meth- product such as PRO 2000. Measuring adherence odological challenges, microbicides provide real is also challenging and although current clinical potential to influence the course of the HIV trials all include some form of assessment of prod- epidemic as they could fill an important gap for uct use, measures such as self-reported behavior women-initiated prevention methods. The joint can sometimes be unreliable. results of the HPTN 035 and MDP 301 trials Each of these scenarios provides a perspective have closed a chapter in microbicide development on how the results of the HPTN 035 and MDP by being the last studies on polymers as candidate 301 trials can be interpreted. Taken together, microbicides. Attention is now firmly focused on the results of the HPTN 035 and MDP 301 tri- antiretroviral agents for topical use as candidate als suggest that, although safe, 0.5% PRO 2000 microbicides with results on tenofovir gel due for gel may have little or no effect on reducing a release in mid 2010. woman’s risk of HIV infection during typical Questions that remain to be answered include: use and that this product is not worth pursuing n When an effective microbicide is found, what further as a potential microbicide. This outcome data will be needed to address the main obsta- was particularly disappointing as 0.5% PRO cles to widespread use; for example, safety in 2000 has potent activity against HIV in vitro pregnancy, long-term safety, safety in very [11–13] and in animal models for vaginal HIV high-frequency use, approaches to increase “...the results of the transmission [14,15]. HPTN 035 and MDP 301 over-the-counter access to the product, messag- trials suggest that, ing to promote uptake and disposable, What lessons can be learnt for future low-cost applicators? although safe, 0.5% PRO microbicides trials? 2000 gel may have little or First, these results raise a question about the n What are the most appropriate correlates no effect on reducing a usefulness of animal models that showed PRO of protection? woman’s risk of 2000 had a protective effect. Second, these n Which formulation of microbicides will be HIV infection...” results highlight the fundamental challenges most acceptable (e.g., gel, vaginal ring or film)? faced in determining which products warrant proceeding into human efficacy trials in the n How should a microbicide product be absence of a surrogate marker of protection. formulated to promote adherence? Third, adherence and measurement thereof is The interpretation of these upcoming results fundamentally important in microbicide trials on tenofovir gel will benefit enormously from the in order to exclude scenario three. Studies assess- lessons learnt from the HPTN 035 and MDP ing new formulations, such as vaginal rings, to 301 trials. improve adherence are needed. Fourth, both trials achieved their objective; the HPTN 035 Financial & competing interests disclosure study as a screening Phase IIb trial and the SS Abdool Karim is Protocol Chair of the HPTN 035 MDP 301 study as a Phase III trial have together trial which was supported by the NIH (grant # addressed the question of whether PRO 2000 is U01AI46749 and U01AI068633) and Co-Principal effective in preventing HIV infection following Investigator of the CAPRISA 004 trial of tenofovir gel, typical use. Finally, as much as we need a series which was supported by United States Agency for of human studies looking at effectiveness of International Development (# GPO-A-00-05-00022- products, we also need to build into these stud- 00, contract # 132119) and LIFElab, a South African ies a program of basic science research to iden- government biotechnology agency. The author has no tify potential surrogate markers of protection. other relevant affiliations or financial involvement Without a validated criterion to decide whether with any organization or entity with a financial interest a product should proceed, the microbicides in or financial conflict with the subject matter or mate- field is hamstrung with doing either relatively rials discussed in the manuscript apart from those large expensive screening trials or proceeding disclosed. straight to even larger and often substantially No writing assistance was utilized in the production more expensive Phase III trials. of this manuscript. Bibliography Abdool Karim Q (Eds). Cambridge microbicide’s sexually transmitted University Press, Cape Town, South Africa, infection efficacy may contribute to the 1. Abdool Karim Q: Heterosexual transmission 243–461 (2005). HIV effectiveness measured in of HIV – the importance of a gendered 2. Vickerman P, Foss A, Watts C: Using Phase 3 microbicide trials. J. Acquir. perspective in HIV prevention. In: HIV/AIDS modeling to explore the degree to which a Immune Defic. Syndr. 48(4), 460–467 in South Africa. Abdool Karim SS, (2008). 528 Future Microbiol. (2010) 5(4) future science group Results of effectiveness trials of PRO 2000 gel: lessons for future microbicide trials Editorial 3. Feldblum PJ, Adeiga A, Bakare R et al.: for the prevention of HIV infection in 15. Weber J, Nunn A, O’Connor T et al.: SAVVY vaginal gel (C31G) for prevention of women: results of the HPTN 035 trial.