GOVERNMENT OF SAINT LUCIA REVIEW OF THE ECONOMY 2016 Review of the Economy 2016 NOTE /ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The data contained in this Review have been arranged and classified to facilitate economic analysis, and may therefore not coincide exactly with the accounting systems from which they may have been derived. In addition, the figures for the year under review, and in some cases for previous years, are preliminary. The Government of Saint Lucia wishes to thank, for their kind cooperation, all the individuals and institutions in both the public and private sectors (whether in Saint Lucia or abroad), who have supplied data or other information for this Review. i Review of the Economy 2016 Contents International Economic Developments ....................................................................... 1 Regional Economic Developments .............................................................................. 3 TOURISM ................................................................................................................ 11 Hotel Performance and Visitor Expenditure ........................................................... 13 CONSTRUCTION ..................................................................................................... 17 Imports of Construction Materials ......................................................................... 17 Private Sector Construction .................................................................................. 18 Public Sector Construction ................................................................................... 18 AGRICULTURE ........................................................................................................ 21 Banana ................................................................................................................ 21 Other Crops ......................................................................................................... 23 Livestock .............................................................................................................. 26 Fisheries .............................................................................................................. 27 MANUFACTURING ................................................................................................... 27 Production ........................................................................................................... 29 ENERGY SECTOR ................................................................................................... 32 Global Developments ............................................................................................ 32 Domestic Developments ........................................................................................ 33 Electricity ............................................................................................................. 34 LABOUR FORCE AND EMPLOYMENT ...................................................................... 38 OVERALL PERFORMANCE ...................................................................................... 46 Revenue Performance ........................................................................................... 46 Current Revenue .................................................................................................. 47 Non-Tax Revenue ................................................................................................. 48 EXPENDITURE PERFORMANCE ........................................................................... 48 Current Expenditure ............................................................................................ 48 Capital Spending .................................................................................................. 49 Financing ............................................................................................................. 50 PUBLIC DEBT ......................................................................................................... 51 Central Government Debt ..................................................................................... 51 Domestic Debt ...................................................................................................... 52 ii Review of the Economy 2016 External Debt ....................................................................................................... 52 Maturity Profile .................................................................................................... 53 Debt Servicing ...................................................................................................... 53 RISK INDICATORS ................................................................................................... 54 Weighted Average Cost of Debt (WACD) ................................................................. 54 Average Time to Maturity (ATM) ............................................................................ 54 Average time to Refixing (ATR) .............................................................................. 54 MONETARY AND FINANCIAL SECTOR ..................................................................... 56 Net Foreign Assets ................................................................................................ 56 Domestic Credit .................................................................................................... 57 Money Supply ...................................................................................................... 57 COMMERCIAL BANK CREDIT BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY .......................................... 57 Liquidity ............................................................................................................... 58 Interest Rates ....................................................................................................... 58 Commercial Bank Performance ............................................................................. 58 INSURANCE ............................................................................................................ 58 Registration and License Fees ............................................................................... 59 Sector Performance .............................................................................................. 60 MERCHANDISE TRADE ........................................................................................... 64 Imports ................................................................................................................ 64 Exports ................................................................................................................ 65 EXTERNAL SECTOR INDICATORS ........................................................................... 66 Overall Balance .................................................................................................... 66 Capital and Financial Account .............................................................................. 67 EDUCATION ............................................................................................................ 68 Public Primary Education ..................................................................................... 68 Public Secondary Education ................................................................................. 69 Post – Secondary Education .................................................................................. 70 Skills Training ...................................................................................................... 71 iii Review of the Economy 2016 List of Figures Figure 1 Visitor Arrivals by Category ........................................................................ 11 Figure 2 Stay-over Arrivals by Origin ....................................................................... 12 Figure 3 Value Added: Hotels and Restaurants......................................................... 14 Figure 4 Visitor Expenditure .................................................................................... 14 Figure 5: Public Sector Construction Expenditure by Category (EC$M) ..................... 19 Figure 6: Agriculture Value Added (2011-2016) ........................................................ 21 Figure 7: Banana Exports (UK & Caribbean) ............................................................ 22 Figure 8: Livestock Production ................................................................................. 26 Figure 9: Fish Landing by Species (Tonnes) .............................................................. 27 Figure 10: Manufacturing Real Growth and Contribution to GDP ............................. 28 Figure 11: Oil Price Movements (WTI) Monthly Average ............................................. 32 Figure 12: Saint Lucia: Average Domestic Fuel Prices (2011-2016) ........................... 33 Figure 13: Diesel Price and Fuel Surcharge .............................................................. 34 Figure 14: Consumer Price Inflation ......................................................................... 37 Figure 15: Labour Force Participation Rate (%) ......................................................... 39 Figure 16: National Unemployment Rate .................................................................. 39 Figure 17: Comparison of Unemployment Rate between ........................................... 41 Figure 18: Unemployment by Duration ...................................................................