LABOR DAY 2020 ELECTION PRIMER A Look Ahead to November LABOR DAY 2020 ELECTION PRIMER | A Look Ahead to November • 1 Introduction As the saying goes, “Eight weeks before an election is a lifetime in politics.” If you have any doubts about the truth of this adage, we suggest speaking with “Presidents” Michael Dukakis or Hillary Clinton! Simply put, there are few, if any, slam dunks in politics. Elections continue to have the capacity to surprise and confound. When the Democratic primary process began with over 25 candidates, who would ever have thought that we would end up with an election between two of the oldest candidates ever to run for the office? Current polling indicates that, if the election were held today, Vice President Biden is near or above the 270 electoral votes he needs to win election. These same polls say the Senate would flip, ever so narrowly, to Democratic control and the House Democratic majority would be relatively unchanged. However Labor Day is certainly not Election Day (see Dukakis and Hillary mentions above). And now is, historically, when the race officially begins. This Election Primer, the first in Dentons’ Election Series, sets the stage for the race to November. From the “top of the ticket” to the down-ballot congressional and state house contests across the country, we track the races that could change majorities in November. More detailed reports will be released as we get closer to election day. We hope this 10,000-foot view helps get you up to speed. Polling on Labor Day vs Results 1980 1984 1988 Labor Day Polling Carter 39% Reagan 39% Anderson 14% Reagan 55% Mondale 39% Bush 42% Dukakis 49% Results Reagan 50.7% Carter 41% Anderson 6% Reagan 58.8% Mondale 40% Bush 53% Dukakis 45% 1992 1996 2000 Labor Day Polling Clinton 52% Bush 42% Clinton 55% Dole 34% Perot 6% Gore 45% Bush 45% Nader 4% Results Clinton 49% Bush 37% Perot 14% Clinton 49% Dole 40% Perot 8% Gore 48% Bush 47% Nader 2% 2004 2008 2012 Labor Day Polling Bush 48% Kerry 46% Obama 50% McCain 42% Obama 47% Romney 46% Results Bush 50% Kerry 48% Obama 52% McCain 45% Obama 51% Romney 47% 2016 2020 Labor Day Polling Clinton 42% Trump 38% Johnson 8% Stein 3% Trump 42% Biden 48% Results Trump 46% Clinton 48% Johnson 3% Stein 1% ???????? LABOR DAY 2020 ELECTION PRIMER | A Look Ahead to November • 2 Contents 04 … Voting in a Pandemic 05 … President 07 … Senate 09 … House 11 … Governor 12 … Attorneys General 13 … Battleground State Houses Race 14 … A Look Ahead DATES OF INTEREST DATES OF INTEREST Date Event September 18, 2020 Early voting begins in 3 states September 29, 2020 1st presidential debate (Cleveland, Ohio) October 7, 2020 Vice presidential debate (Salt Lake City, Utah) October 15, 2020 2nd presidential debate (Miami, Fla.) October 22, 2020 3rd presidential debate (Nashville, Tenn.) November 3, 2020 Election Day December 14, 2020 Electoral College Electors sign seal and certify Certificate of Vote On or Before January 3, 2021 Certificate of Vote transferred to Congress January 6, 2021 Congress counts the electoral votes January 20, 2021 Inauguration Day Voting in a Pandemic When early voting starts Vote by Mail Map of States When Early Voting Starts State Early voting starts Early voting ends WA ME Alabama N/A N/A MT ND MN Alaska 19-Oct 2-Nov OR ID Arizona 7-Oct 30-Oct SD WI** NY WY MI** Arkansas 19-Oct 3-Nov IA** NE PA NV OH** California* 5-Oct 2-Nov IL IN UT NH** Colorado 19-Oct 2-Nov CO WV** VA KS MO** CA** KY MA** Connecticut N/A N/A NC TN** CT DC 27-Oct 2-Nov AZ NM OK AR** SC RI Delaware N/A N/A GA MS AL** NJ Florida* 24-Oct 31-Oct LA TX VT** Georgia 12-Oct 30-Oct DE** Hawaii 24-Oct 2-Nov AK FL DC** Idaho †** 19-Oct 30-Oct Illinois* 24-Sep 2-Nov HI MD** Indiana † 6-Oct 2-Nov Automatically mailed... Iowa* † 5-Oct 2-Nov 52 million voters 96 million voters 42m 43m Kansas* 14-Oct 2-Nov Need excuse beyond Can vote by mail* Application to Ballot COVID19 Fears vote by mail Kentucky 13-Oct 2-Nov Louisiana 20-Oct 27-Oct *”Can vote by mail” includes states that don’t require any excuse to vote absentee and Maine † 4-Oct 29-Oct states that will allow fear of the coronavirus as an excuse. Maryland 26-Oct 2-Nov **States that changed due to the coronavirus Massachusetts 17-Oct 30-Oct Michigan* † 19-Sep 2-Nov Minnesota † 18-Sep 2-Nov Mississippi N/A N/A Missouri N/A N/A Starting Early Montana † 5-Oct 2-Nov A number of battleground states – including North Carolina, Nebraska 5-Oct 2-Nov Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – will begin mailing out ballots in September Nevada 17-Oct 30-Oct Starting Early New Hampshire N/A N/A A number of battleground states – including North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – will begin mailing out ballots in September New Jersey † 19-Sep 2-Nov New Mexico 6-Oct 31-Oct WA New York 24-Oct 1-Nov ME MT ND North Carolina 15-Oct 31-Oct MN OR North Dakota* 19-Oct 2-Nov ID SD WI NY Ohio † 6-Oct 2-Nov MI WY Oklahoma † 29-Oct 31-Oct NE IA PA NV OH Oregon N/A N/A IL IN UT NH CO WV Pennsylvania † 14-Sep Ballot must be returned VA KS MO by November 3 CA KY MA NC Rhode Island N/A N/A CT TN AZ NM OK South Carolina †*** 5-Oct 2-Nov AR SC RI GA MS AL South Dakota † 19-Sep 2-Nov NJ LA Tennessee 14-Oct 29-Oct TX VT Texas 13-Oct 30-Oct DE AK FL Utah* 20-Oct 30-Oct Fewer than 30 days DC Vermont † 19-Sep 2-Nov 3045 days HI MD 45 days Virginia 18-Sep 31-Oct Source: Bloomberg Government, Bloomberg News story, More than 45 days Washington N/A N/A “First Votes in the 2020 Election Will Be Cast in Six Weeks” West Virginia 21-Oct 31-Oct Wisconsin* † 20-Oct 1-Nov Wyoming* † 18-Sep 2-Nov Note: *Early voting dates vary by county / **Not all counties hold early voting / ***excuse required | † State only offers “in-person absentee” voting at county election offices | Highlighted states are sending mail ballots to all or most registered voters. Source: Vote.org; NSCL LABOR DAY 2020 ELECTION PRIMER | A Look Ahead to November • 4 President Map of 2016 Election Results Is the Electoral WA Map shifting? 12 ME MT ND 4 3 3 MN We dug into on how 16 OR 10 7 ID NY SD WI 4 29 3 10 MI battleground states WY 16 3 IA PA NE have voted relative to 6 20 NV 5 OH 6 IL IN 18 4 UT NH the country as a whole CO 20 11 WV 6 VA KS MO 5 CA 9 KY 13 MA 11 6 55 10 8 since 2000 — or how NC 7 TN 15 CT 11 AZ NM OK much more Republican AR SC RI 4 11 5 7 6 9 GA MS AL or Democratic they are 16 NJ 14 6 9 LA VT 3 relative to the nation — TX 8 38 DE 3 AK and we found an electoral 3 FL DC 29 3 map undergoing a 4 MD HI 10 series of changes, some subtle and others more Trump: 306 Clinton: 232 pronounced. • Iowa, Ohio, Maine and How the Map Looks Today Michigan were 2016 Swing States that moved sharply to the right WA 12 ME • Minnesota, Nevada, MT ND 2 3 3 MN Pennsylvania, New OR 10 7 ID NY SD WI Hampshire and Wisconsin 4 29 3 10 MI WY 16 ME/NE 3 moved slightly to the right IA PA District EVs*: NE* 20 NV 6 OH 5 NH 4 ME 1 in 2016 6 IL IN 18 UT CO 20 11 WV 6 VA MA 11 ME 2 KS MO 5 CA 9 KY 13 • Arizona, Georgia and 6 55 10 8 CT 7 NE 2 NC Texas are Republican TN 15 11 RI 4 AZ NM OK AR SC leaning states that shifted 11 5 7 6 9 GA NJ 14 MS AL to the left in 2016 9 16 6 VT 3 LA TX 8 38 DE 3 • Colorado and Virginia AK DC 3 FL 3 were once Republican 29 MD 10 states that now increasingly HI 4 vote Democratic Safe D Likely D Leans D Toss-up Safe R Likely R Leans R • Florida and North Democrats: 268 Toss-up: 66 Republicans: 204 Carolina remain “swingy” *Two states, Maine and Nebraska, award electoral votes by congressional districts (all others are awarded winner-take-all statewide). Nebraska’s two statewide electoral votes, and two of its three districts, are rated Safe Republican. Maine’s statewide votes are rated Likely Democrat. The ratings for Maine’s two districts, and Nebraska’s one competitive district, are listed separately. Source: 2020 UVA Center for Politics 2020 National Polling vs 2016 National Polling Pre Labor Day State Polling Post Conventions 2020 Arizona Colorado Before 45% 51% Poll Date Sample Biden (D) Trump (R) Spread conventions 47% 41% RCP Average 8/26 - 9/1 -- 49.6 42.4 Biden +7.2 52% Latest 51% Economist/ 8/30 - 9/1 1207 RV 51 40 Biden +11 42% 41% YouGov IBD/TIPP 8/29 - 9/1 1033 RV 49 41 Biden +8 Wisconsin Ohio CNN 8/28 - 9/1 997 RV 51 43 Biden +8 49% 45% Emerson 8/30 - 8/31 1567 LV 49 47 Biden +2 43% 49% The Hill/HarrisX 8/29 - 8/31 2834 RV 46 40 Biden +6 52% 45% Quinnipiac 8/28 - 8/31 1081 LV 52 42 Biden +10 43% 50% USA Today/ 8/28 - 8/31 1000 RV 50 43 Biden +7 Suff olk Minnesota Michigan Rasmussen 8/26 - 9/1 2500 LV 49 45 Biden +4 50% 50% Reports 42% 44% Grinnell/Selzer 8/26 - 8/30 827 LV 49 41 Biden +8 50% 52% The Hill/HarrisX 8/25 - 8/28 2862 RV 47 38 Biden +9 43% 42% 2016 Pennsylvania Texas Poll Date Sample Clinton (D) Trump (R) Spread 50% 46% Reuters/Ipsos 8/25 - 8/29 1404 LV 40 39 Clinton +1 44% 47% Monmouth 8/25 - 8/28 689 LV 49 42 Clinton +7 49% 47% USA Today/ 8/24 - 8/29 1000 LV 48 41 Clinton +7 45% Suff olk 48% NBC News/SM 8/22 - 8/28 24104 RV 48 42 Clinton +6 Florida North Carolina LA Times/USC 8/22 - 8/28 2460 LV 44 44 Tie 50% 49% Reuters/Ipsos 8/20 - 8/24 1049 LV 42 35 Clinton +7 45% 46% Economist/ 8/19 - 8/23 906 RV 47 44 Clinton +3 49% 49% YouGov 47% 47% Quinnipiac 8/18 - 8/24 1498 LV 51 41 Clinton +10 Georgia 46% 47% 49% 46% Source: Morning Consult Yes, there are things that could tilt this race: shenanigans at the Postal Service, voter confusion about how to vote, states’ inability to process and count ballots on time, to name a few.