Contents____________________________ South Asia: A 2014 Review and Early Projections 1- 4 Afghanistan 2- 17 Bangladesh 18- 26 Bhutan 27-36 India 37-50 Maldives 51-65 Myanmar 66-74 Nepal 75-85 Pakistan 86-97 Sri Lanka 98-108 SAARC 109-113 1 Hasina, turned up at Raisina Hill showed how South Asia: A 2014 things had changed overnight in India’s capital. review and early Modi’s first foreign visit to Nepal and other top level exchanges with Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, projections Bhutan and Afghanistan set the tone of India’s diplomatic engagement with its Wilson John neighbourhood. Political transitions and a looming threat of With Pakistan, the tone assumed a different terrorism dominated much of South Asia in character. After Islamabad, and Rawalpindi, 2014. While democratic impulses held ground ignored New Delhi’s persistent plea to rein in in India, Afghanistan and to a great extent in terrorist groups targeting India, the warm Sri Lanka, similar sentiments became handshake with Nawaz Sharif at Raisina Hill noticeably feeble in Pakistan and Bangladesh, quickly turned to a cold shrug in Kathmandu and Maldives. In much of the region, the year when Modi and Sharif crossed each other at signalled the withering away of old political the SAARC Summit later in the year. With the order and the emergence of a new reality cross-border firings increasing, the rhetoric in burdened by extraordinary public expectations New Delhi became hard and explicit — tit-for- and failure of established political parties to tat. Ceasefire violations by Pakistan were met meet them. Economic and social crises in many with equally fierce response from India. The parts made the challenge even more acute. So hardening of positions on both sides became did a worsening security situation across the clear when New Delhi called off the scheduled subcontinent. Foreign Secretary–level talks after Pakistan’s envoy to New Delhi refused to cancel his Political flux meeting with some separatist leaders from Jammu and Kashmir. The stand-off between It was in India where politics made the most New Delhi and Islamabad will have far dramatic turnaround. The dynastic Congress- reaching consequences for the region in the led alliance was routed by a new-comer to New months ahead. Delhi’s politics — Narendra Damodardas Modi. His sudden rise on the political firmament was Visible impact in Afghanistan matched only by the dramatic victory he achieved for his party, Bharatiya Janata Party The most visible impact of this situation will (BJP). Like an expert surfer, he rode a high perhaps be evident in Afghanistan where wave of expectations from voters, mostly equally dramatic events unfolded during the young, who were increasingly restless about year. The most significant was the presidential the incumbent regime’s failures on many elections and the disquieting controversy over fronts. Modi was not only the chosen leader of who actually won the electoral contest — the BJP but also a long-standing member of Ashraf Ghani or Abdullah Abdullah, the two hard-line rightwing group, Rashtriya main contestants for the presidential palace Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). These two vacated by Hamid Karzai. It took hectic allegiances can have considerable influence on backroom dealings over several weeks to form Prime Minister Modi’s domestic political and a government of national unity with Ghani as foreign policy outreach, especially in the the President and Abdullah as the CEO, a immediate neighbourhood. patchwork solution which is more knotty than the problem itself. It was the least expected of This became abundantly clear from the very the stumbling blocks in the multiple transitions first day of Prime Minister Modi’s tenure. He in Afghanistan which began in fact with the invited the top leadership from neighbouring Afghan national forces taking charge of countries, including Pakistan Prime Minister security in early 2014. The process concluded Nawaz Sharif, to his swearing-in ceremony in with a formal withdrawal by NATO forces in New Delhi. The fact that almost every one, December. barring Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh 1 Like the political transition, too many questions closer scrutiny here. The first was Pakistan and bedevil the security situation. It was not clear, its continued patronage of the Taliban for instance, how the security forces would leadership and its military offensive. Second sustain their operational capability without a was the military support the insurgent group generous aid and assistance from the drew from the Haqqani Network and al Qaeda. international community. Although some of the Both these factors were evident during the anxieties were laid at rest with the US year in how the Pakistan Army moved the administration revising their troop commitment Haqqani leadership and the Taliban from a probable zero-presence to a 15000- commanders to safer grounds when it began a strong or near about, force, principally tasked limited military operation against Tehrik-e- with counter-insurgency and training missions. Taliban Pakistan (TTP) stronghold in north The signing of Bilateral Security Agreement Waziristan in June after the brazen attack on (BSA) and the Status of Forces Agreement Karachi airport. The army turned it into an all- (SOFA) with the US in November raised hopes out offensive after the December attack on an about a prolonged engagement with the army-run public school in Peshawar by TTP. international community. All these could mean a short-term reinforcement for a force which The manner in which 135 and more school has to be battle not only a blooming children were butchered by five TTP gunmen insurgency but also a recalcitrant, militarily- shook Pakistan, and forced its leadership to strong neighbour in Pakistan. take action. It was not the first major attack in Pakistan but one of the many which killed These tenuous transitions have had roughly 2400 persons, over 1700 of them considerable influence on how the Taliban civilians, in 2014 alone. The Peshawar attack insurgency regained a faster traction in the underlined not only the alarming fact that south and eastern parts of the country, and terrorist groups were strong and brazen across Durand Line in Pakistan’s tribal areas. enough to take on the powerful Pakistan Army The Taliban attacks against the security forces but also that the state was unable to galvanise and others saw a spike with Kabul witnessing its might and influence to counter the threat at least 11 major and minor attacks. With the from these groups. The threat to the state of Taliban consolidating its position in much of Pakistan from terrorist groups, which were the eastern and southern border provinces, the once patronised by the military, became grave new government is faced with the almost and immediate. impossible task of living with an insurgent force which wants to undo the nebulous Statements & posturing political process which it has been entrusted by the voters to protect. But much of this realisation was confined to statements and posturing. The civilian The year also witnessed the Taliban leadership leadership was quick to shift the colossal refusing to be drawn into another round of failure of protecting the lives of the citizens dialogue particularly when it was known that and made a hue and cry about making no the foreign forces would be leaving the country distinction between a good and bad Taliban. by the year-end. The Taliban viewed the new But a clarity about who all were terrorists President and his government as ``foreign`` eluded both the civilian and military agents and remained unwilling to attempt a leadership; the military wanted to keep rapprochement. President Ghani’s call for terrorist groups like the Haqqani Network and truce was replied with a series of attacks in Lashkar-e-Tayyeba (LeT) protected as an Kabul and against security forces. There was insurance against India and Afghanistan. no sight of a breakthrough as the year ended although a new mediator in the form of China The civilian leadership had their own debts to appeared on the horizon. pay to the extremist groups like Lashkar-e- Jhangvi (LeJ) which were closely aligned with Several factors were in play, besides the NATO the Taliban as well as al Qaeda. The outcome withdrawal, in helping the Taliban’s renewed of this refusal to give up the traditional offensive to capture Kabul. Two of these merit duplicitous policy in dealing with terrorism 2 would leave Pakistan even more unstable with Vendetta politics in Bangladesh? equally serious consequences for the region as a whole. Democratic process remained at even greater peril in Bangladesh where the two mainstream For Pakistan, the year also brought a political political parties refused to come to any re-balancing with the army making sure that agreement and chose to express their Nawaz Sharif lost much of his clout and resentment through violence and street swagger. The army had decided to cut him to protests. The politics of vendetta was played to size once Sharif refused to heed its advice to the galleries by the ruling party. War go slow on prosecuting the former Army chief commissions and executions have left the and President, Pervez Musharraf. The army’s society deeply divided. instruments were Sharif’s political opponent, Imran Khan and a Canadian-Pakistan cleric, Political instability has given the radical forces Tahir Qadri. Both Khan and Qadri were allowed a foot-hold in the country, exposing its people to lay siege on Islamabad on the pretext of to allurements of global jihad. Terrorist groups demanding Sharif’s ouster for political like ISIS and al Qaeda made attempts to find corruption. recruits and support among the people, especially the young, disheartened by the The protests were allowed to drag on for weeks ceaseless tug-of-war between Sheikh Hasina before Sharif and his party succumbed, giving and Khaled Zia.