Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 2000 Palestinian political violence and Israel Levy, David A. Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA380839 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California THESIS PALESTINIAN POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND ISRAEL by David A. Levy June 2000 Thesis Advisor: Glenn E. Robinson Second Reader: Jeanne Giraldo Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited 20000818 068 ,---------------------------------- -----:! REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY 2. REPORTDATE 3.REPORTTYPEANDDATESCOVERED June 2000 Master's Thesis TITLE AND SUBTITLE : Palestinian Political Violence and Israel 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Levy, DavidA., LT, USN. 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) REPORT NUMBER Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, CA 93943-5000 9. SPONSORING I MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING I MONITORING AGENCY REPORT NUMBER N/A 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. 12a. DISTRIBUTION I AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited ABSTRACT This thesis examines political violence by Palestinian groups against Israel and endeavors to determine if this political violence was a necessary component of Israel's decision to agree to the Oslo Accords and subsequent peace process initiative. Through the analysis of four separate time periods in Palestinian history (1948 to The Six Day War, The Six Day War to the Intifada, the Intifada to the Oslo Accords, and post-Oslo Accords) it was shown that three separate forms of political violence were used (guerrilla warfare, terrorism, and civil unrest). When one form of political violence was ended another formed.. Being a democracy, Israel required strong internal support for peace to bring about the peace process. This internal support was created by a demand for personal security and is seen in the creation of new political parties and movements. In short: this thesis demonstrates through argument and evidence that Israel is engaged in a land for security peace deal with the Palestinians primarily because the Palestinians had engaged in political violence. 14. SUBJECT TERMS Israel, Palestine, Palestinians, Palestine Liberation Organization 15. NUMBER OF PAGES (PLO), Political Violence, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism. 106 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF OF REPORT CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION ABSTRACT PAGE OF ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UL NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited PALESTINIAN POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND ISRAEL David A. Levy Lieutenant, United States Navy B.S., State University OfNew York, Maritime College, 1995 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL June 2000 Author: iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT This thesis examines political violence by Palestinian groups against Israel and endeavors to determine if this political violence was a necessary component of Israel's decision to agree to the Oslo Accords and subsequent peace process initiative. Through the analysis of four separate time periods in Palestinian history (1948 to The Six Day War, The Six Day War to the Intifada, the Intifada to the Oslo Accords, and post-Oslo Accords) it was shown that three separate forms of political violence were used (guerrilla warfare, terrorism, and civil unrest). When one form of political violence was ended another formed.. Being a democracy, Israel required strong internal support for peace to bring about the peace process. This internal support was created by a demand for personal security and is seen in the creation of new political parties and movements. In short: this thesis demonstrates through argument and evidence that Israel is engaged in a land for security peace deal with the Palestinians primarily because the Palestinians had engaged in political violence. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK VI TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... ! A. RESEARCH QUESTION AND HISTORICAL RELEVANCE .....•..•.• 1 B. DEFINITIONS OF CRITICAL TERMS ..........•...............................•.•... 7 C. ISRAEL'S DESIRE FOR SECURITY: COMPLEX INTERDEPENDENCE THEORY AND REALISM THEORY •.•.•.... 11 D. ORGANIZATION AND CHAPTER OUTLINE •........•...............•......•. 15 II. THE PALESTINIAN GUERRILLA W ARS ..•.............•...•.....••.........•..•..............•..•. 17 A. THE BIRTH OF A NATION, THE ORIGINS OF A TRAGEDY.•..•. 18 B. A MODEL FOR UNDERSTANDING GUERRILLA W AR ............... 22 C. ORIGIN OF THE PALESTINIAN GUERRILLAS .........•....•.•............ 25 D. PHASE ONE: FROM 1948 ARAB-ISRAELI WAR TO THE SUEZ W AR ..........................................................................................................27 1. The Partisan War: Interstate Level of Analysis ...•...........•.•..........•. 27 2. The Partisan War: Substate Level of Analysis .•..•............•.••............ 32 E. PHASE II: FROM THE SUEZ WAR TO THE 1967 ARAB-ISRAELI WAR .......................................................................................................... 35 1. The developing Crisis •.••....•..•...••.....................•..............•................... 35 2. The Israeli Response .............................•.•..................•......................•. 40 III. THE DECADES OF PALESTINIAN TERRORISM •...•...•........•...•..•........•.......... 43 A. THE TRANSITION FROM GUERRILLA WARFARE TO TERRORISM ........................................................................................... 43 B. CASE STUDY: AL FAT AH ................................................................... 45 C. CASE STUDY: THE ABU NIDAL ORGANIZATION .•.•.•................. 47 D. OTHER PALESTINIAN TERRORIST GROUPS ..•.•......•.•.......•••...•••. 50 E. RESPONSES AND OUTCOMES VIS-A-VIS PALESTINIAN TERRORISM ...........................................................................................53 1. Israel's Response To Palestinian Terrorism ....•..•.•.•.•...•.................. 53 2. Western Responses To Palestinian Terrorism ...•..•...••••••••..•..••........ 57 3. The Fall of The Soviet Union •....•.......•..••.•....•.••................•.•.••.•••.....•. 62 4. Policy Shift in the PLO ~ ...••.••.••••.•....•.............••••••......•.......•.•..•.....•..... 63 F. TRANSITION FROM TERRORISM TO CIVIL UNREST .........•....• 64 IV. CIVIL UNREST AND THE INTIFADA •••••.••••.•.•.••.••.••.•.••••..••.••...•.•....••..•.•••••.•••••. 67 A. PROXIMATE CAUSES OF THE INTIFADA AND THE ISRAELI RESPONSE .............................................................................................. 67 B. TERRORISM DURING THE INTIFADA ........••......•...........•.............. 70 C. PALESTINIAN ISLAMISTS: HAMAS ..•..•.•..•..•••.••...•••.•.••.••••.•••.•.•.•.... 73 D. THE RISE OF A LAND FOR PEACE MOVEMENT IN ISRAEL ... 75 E. A UNIQUE SOLUTION FOR THE INTIFADA •.••.•••.•••••••••••.••••••••..... 78 V. CONCLUSION: POLITICAL VIOLENCE, SECURITY, AND THE PEACE PROCESS ............................................................................................................. 81 vii A. THE EFFICACIOUSNESS OF PALESTINIAN POLITICAL VIOLENCE .............................................................................................. 81 B. THE OSLO ACCORDS .......•.........................•....•...............................•... 83 C. RECENT SIGHTINGS: WHERE ARE THE TERRORISTS CURRENTLY? ........................................................................................ 83 D. THE FUTURE OF THE PEACE PROCESS: WHY DOES THE VIOLENCE CONTINUE? ...................................................................... 84 APPENDIX. UNITED NATIONS SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTIONS 242 AND 338 ................................................................................................................ 87 INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST ...•............................•................•....................•...........• 89 viii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Adamas Mysticus (The Mystic Diamond) .......................................................... 22 Figure 2. The Pump: a model describing feedback in a guerrilla war.............................. 24 Figure 3. Large Scale Palestinian Guerrilla Raids into Israel (1951-1956) .................... .32 LIST