Earthquake Readiness of Public Water Agencies in Southern California A Project Presented to the Faculty of California State Polytechnic University, Pomona In Partial Fulfillment Of the Requirements for the Degree Masters In Public Administration By Maroun El-Hage 2017 SIGNATURE PAGE PROJECT: EARTHQUAKE READINESS OF PUBLIC WATER AGENCIES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AUTHOR: Maroun El-Hage DATE SUBMITTED: Fall 2017 Political Science Department Dr. Renford Reese ________________________________________ Project Committee Chair Public Administration Dr. Jing Wang ________________________________________ Public Administration Dr. Mohsen Moayedi ________________________________________ Public Administration ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I dedicate this research project to my loving family. Without their love and faith in me, I would not have achieved this important milestone. I am very thankful to Dr. Reese, Dr. Wang and Dr. Moayedi for their support, encouragement, inspiration, and guidance throughout my educational journey at Cal Poly Pomona, and through the process of researching and writing this study. While my heart is filled with gratitude, my mind is filled with enlightenment and empowerment. I am honored to have worked under their guidance and leadership. iii ABSTRACT The latest scientific research predicts a large earthquake that will probably rock southern California within the next 30 years. The developed environment, including major lifeline- facilities, such as water, power, telecommunications, railways, highways & bridges, and gas, are at risk of being severely damaged, possibly causing a chain-reaction of devastation and hardship, impacting the public’s health, safety and economic welfare. In the face of a larger question of whether southern California will survive the aftermath of this predicted big earthquake, this study focuses on one critical life-line, namely the public water system. The author aims to increase awareness and understating of how this critical resource is managed, the risks facing it, and to estimate the level of readiness and resiliency this water system is in, prior to the occurrence of, as well as the level of preparedness to respond to, this predicted large earthquake event. This study focuses on two key elements in hazard- mitigation, namely, Mitigation and Preparation, which are important functions to be undertaken before an earthquake occurs, to limit the hazardous effects of such an event. Data collected from 26 public water agencies are presented in a tabulated manner, utilizing a scoring system that is tailored to estimate the agencies’ individual and collective readiness index. The study concludes with observations on possible obstacles facing public water agencies to achieve resiliency, and offers recommendations for future actions and research to advance the resiliency of the water system in southern California. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS SIGNATURE PAGE ….………….………………………………….……………………ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS….……………………………………………….…………..iii ABSTRACT .……………………………………………………………………………..iv LIST OF TABLES …………………….…………………………………………….….viii LIST OF FIGURES ..…………………………………………………………………….ix CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION……...……………......………………………...………1 Overview .................…………………………………………………...…...………......1 Organizational Structure of the Water Service Area ………………………………3 Anatomy of a Water System …………………………………………………….…..3 1- Water Supply ..………………………………………...…………………….4 2- Conveyance Facilities ……………………………………..………………..5 3- Treatment Facilities …………………………………………..…………….5 4- Distribution Facilities ..…………………………………………..…………5 5- Consumption …………………………………………………………..……6 Risk to Various Components of the Water System ………………………………….6 Predicted Earthquake, The Big One ………………………………………………..7 Problem Statement ...……….…….……………………………………………………..8 Purpose Statement …….…….…….……………………………………………...……10 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW .……………………………………………......11 Emergency Management Approach ………...……………...…….……………...….11 The Framework ...….....………………………..………………………………......11 1- Mitigation ....…………....…………………………………..…………...…11 2- Preparation ..………………………………………………………………12 3- Response …………………………………………………………………..12 4- Recovery …………………………………………………………………..12 Case Study …………………………………………………………………………….12 The 1994 Northridge Earthquake ……………………….………………………...12 1- Emergency Management .……………………..………………………....…13 2- Lessons Learned, Mitigation and Preparation Summary ……………..……17 v Regulatory Environment ….……………………………………………………...……20 Notable Laws ..…………………………………………………………….……….21 1- California Water Plan (1959). .…………………………………………….21 2- California Environmental Quality Act (1970)...……………………………21 3- Subdivision Map Act (1979) ..……………………………………………...21 4- Urban Water Management Planning Act (1983) .…………………………21 5- Ground Water Management Act (1992) .………………………………….22 6- Water Supply Planning (1995) .………………………………………..….22 7- Sustainable Water Use and Demand Reductions (2009) .……………..…..22 8- Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (2014) .……………………...22 Contemporary Risks, Challenges and Mitigation .…………………………………….23 Cyclical Droughts .……………………………………………………………...…23 Seismic Activity .………………………………………………………………...…23 Design and Construction Standards .…………………………………….…………….26 Emergency Management and Preparedness Plans .…………………………………....26 Earthquake Prediction ……………………………………………………..…………..27 CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY ..….……………………….……................................29 CHAPTER 4: FINDINGS …………………………………...…………….……………33 CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ………………..………37 References ……………………………………………………………………………….42 APPENDIX A: Significant Earthquakes in California (between 1700 and 2003) ...........52 APPENDIX B: Agencies and Communities, Sorted by Median Household Income……54 APPENDIX C: Agency-Readiness Categories and Criteria Ratings ...……………….…62 APPENDIX D: Main Water Supplies Imported Into Southern California ……………...63 APPENDIX E: Water Conservation Reports Summary ……………………………...…64 APPENDIX F: Regulated (Private) Water Companies in California ………………..…65 APPENDIX G: UCERF13 Earthquake Simulation …………………………………….69 APPENDIX H: Collected Data for Criteria 1, Water Supply ………………………….. 73 APPENDIX I: Collected Data for Criteria 2, Water Shortage …………………………. 74 vi APPENDIX J: Collected Data for Criteria 3, Hazards Assessment ….....………………. 75 APPENDIX K: Collected Data for Criteria 4, Emergency Management (or Response) Plan ……….…………………………………………………………..…...…………..76 APPENDIX L: Criteria Scoring & Calculations, Criteria 1: Water Supply Reliability & Redundancy ..………….……………………………………………..…………77 APPENDIX M: Criteria Scoring & Calculations, Criteria 2: Water Shortage Contingency Plans …….……………………………………………………………………….78 APPENDIX N: Criteria Scoring & Calculations, Criteria 3: Hazard/Risk Assessment & Engineering Standards ….………….……………………………………….…79 APPENDIX O: Criteria Scoring & Calculations, Criteria 4: Criteria: Emergency Management Plan (EMP) ………………….……………………………………………80 vii LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Member-Agencies and Population Served .…...……………………………….…2 Table 2 Earthquake Events Prediction ..……..……………...………………………..........8 Table 3 Poverty Scale in Southern California Communities .……...……………………36 Table 4 Combined Readiness Index (all Agencies) ……………………………………..34 Table 5 Water Conservation Results ………………………………………………….…36 Table 6 Summary of Regulated (Private) Water Companies in California ……………..41 Table 7 Example of Scoring Calculations ………………………………………………32 Table 8 Readiness Index Scale ………………………………………………………….32 viii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 Organizational Structure of Water Service Area ....……………………...……...3 Figure 2 Anatomy of a Water System ………….................................................................4 Figure 3 Agency Readiness Index …....…………………………………………………35 ix CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION Overview In 1994, the earth shook under the California State University, Northridge campus, causing fear, damage, and tragic loss of life. The tremors from the Northridge earthquake affected the metropolitan communities of the greater Los Angeles area, along with southern California communities, then inhabited by approximately 17 million people (Seismic Safety Commission Report, 1995). Today, almost 24 years after this event, with an estimated population of 21 million people (Table 1, page 2), southern California is susceptible to experience more powerful earthquakes from regional fault lines, such as the Southern San Andreas, Elsinore, and San Jacinto faults, with predicted devastating effects (USGS UCERF3, 2013). This study sheds light on southern California’s water system to evaluate the state of readiness of public water agencies in the face of such a large seismic event, and identifies opportunities to enhance our communities’ mitigation and preparedness efforts, drawing from lessons learned in the aftermath of the 1994 Northridge earthquake. In the aftermath of an earthquake, many life-line facilities and services, such as power, transportation, and communication, are critical for the continued functioning and welfare of the affected communities, water facilities being the chief concern. Therefore, to evaluate the state of readiness of southern California, this study examines the public water system in its organizational and operational context, along with the historical and predicted challenges facing it. 1 Table 1 2015 Population # of Communities Agency # Agency Name Served (1) Served (million) 0 The Metropolitan Water District of So. Cal. 250 20.800 1 Calleguas MWD 14 0.833 2 Central Basin MWD 31 1.555 3 City of Anaheim 1 0.358 4 City of Beverly Hills 1 0.035 5 City of Burbank 1 0.104