TEXT BOUND INTO THE SPINE "A DISAGGREGATE TRIP GENERATION MODEL FOR THE STRATEGIC PLANNING CONTOL OF PRIVATE CAR TRIPS TO LARGE FOODSTORES" G. McL. HAZEL VOLUME 1- THE TEXT Ph. D. THESIS CRANFIELD INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY This thesis is dedicated to my Father and Mother who, through their love, sacrifice and vision made it all possible. G. McL. Hazel, July 1985. For I ras my father's son, tender and only beloved in the sight of my mother. He taught me also, and said unto me, Let thine heart retain my words : keep my canmandments, and live. Get wisdom, get understanding : forget it not; neither decline fran the words of my mouth. Forsake her not, and she shall preserve thee : love her, and she shall keep thee. Proverbs 4: 3-6. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The author wishes to express his gratitude to Professor M. Cordey-Hayes for his invaluable advice, experience and guidance and also to the staff of the Centre for Transport Studies, Cranfield Institute of Technology. Special thanks are due to Dr. J. Clark, Mr. I Black and Dr. M. Benwell. The author also wishes to thank Napier College and Lothian Regional Council for making the research programme possible through the provision of funding and the remission of staff time, Mrs M. Clark for typing this thesis and, last but not least, to my wife Fiona for putting up with the attendant neurosis of research study for the past six years and for proof-reading the thesis. CONTENTS PAGE VOLUME 1 CHAPTER 1 THE GROWTH OF LARGE FOODSTORES IN BRITAIN 1 CHAPTER 2 THE DEFINITION OF STORE TYPE AND THE ESTIMATION OF PRIVATE-CAR TRIPS TO LARGE RETAIL CENTRES 10 CHAPTER 3 CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR 26 CHAPTER 4 THE ACCESSIBILITY OF LARGE RETAIL FOODSTORES 54 CHAPTER 5 DESIGN OF RESEARCH PROGRAMME 67 CHAPTER 6 THE PLANNING AND ORGANISATION OF THE ENQUIRY 84 CHAPTER 7 ANALYSIS OF THE DATA 117 CHAPTER 8 INTERPRETATION AND DISCUSSION OF THE FINDINGS 232 CHAPTER 9 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION 263 CHAPTER 10 SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH 271 REFERENCES 276 CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES (Contd. ) PAGE Table 27(b) Principle Components Analysis - Factor Composition for Each Area (Dependent Factors) 151 Table 27(c) Principle Components Analysis - Factor Composition for Each Area (Dependent Factors) 152 Table 28(a) Principle Components Analysis - Factor Composition for Each Area (Independent Factors) 153 Table 28(b) Principle Components Analysis - Factor Composition for Each Area (Independent Factors) 154 Table 28(c) Principle Components Analysis - Factor Composition for Each Area (Indpendent Factors) 155 Table 29 Large Foodstores in Edinburgh District 161 Table 30 Spatial Accessibility Indices for Individual Areas 165 Table 31 Pearson Correlation Coefficients for Spatial Accessibility and Variables Exhibiting a Significant Relationship 166 Table 32 Canonical Correlation Analysis Between Variables B, C, D, E, F and G and I, K, L, M, N, O, P, Q and R for Each Individual Area 170 Table 33 Structure of First Order Canonical Variates for Individual Areas 171 Table 34 Canonical Correlation Analysis for Means Data Matrix with and without the Variable S 173 Table 35 The Structure of the Canonical Correlation Variates with respect to the Means Data Matrix with and without S 174 Table 36 Canonical Correlation Coefficients for Groups of Areas used in the Tests of Homogeneity 177 Table 37 Canonical Correlation Analysis for the Three Superstore Dependent Variables with respect to the Independent Variables 178 Table 38 Structure of First-Order Canonical Variates for Individual Areas using only Three Superstore Dependent Variables 180 Table 39 Canonical Correlation Analysis with respect to the Three Superstore Dependent Variables and Three Selected Independent Variables 181 Table 40 Canonical Correlation Analysis for - 1) All variables 2) Three Store Dependent and All Dependent Variables 3) Three Store Dependent and Three Independent Variables 182 Table 41 Pearson Correlation Coefficients Between Dependent and Independent Variables for Individual Areas 183 . Table 42 Means Data matrix in Order of Store Duration of Stay 192 Table 43 Means Data Matrix in Order of Store Expenditure 193 CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES (Contd. ) PAGE Table 44 Means Data Matrix in Order of Store Frequency of Visit 194 Table 45 Canonical Correlation Analysis for Groups of Areas based on an Aggregate Store Usage Index 197 Table 46 Order of Variable Addition in the Multiple Regression Analysis for F with I to R by Individual Area 199 Table 47 Order of Variable Addition in the Multiple Regression Analysis for B with I to R by Individual Area 200 Table 48 Order of Variable Addition in the Multiple Regression Analysis for D with I to R for Individual Areas 201 Table 49 Multiple Regression Analysis - Table of Pearson Correlation Coefficients by Individual Area 203 Table 50 Multiple Regression Analysis - Table of Pearson Correlation Coefficients by Individual Area 204 Table 51 Multiple Regression Analysis - Table of Pearson Correlation Coefficients by Individual Area 205 Table 52 Multiple Regression Analysis - Table of Pearson Correlation Coefficients by Individual Area 206 Table 53 Multiple Regression Analysis - Table of Pearson Correlation Coefficients by Individual Area 207 Table 54 Multiple Regression Analysis - Table of Pearson Correlation Coefficients by Individual Area 208 Table 55 Multiple Regression Analysis - Table of Pearson Correlation Coefficients by Individual Area 209 Table 56 Multiple Regression Analysis - Table of Pearson Correlation Coefficients by Individual Area 210 Table 57 Multiple Regression Analysis - Table of Pearson Correlation Coefficients by Individual Area 211 Table 58 Multiple Regression Analysis - Table of Pearson Correlation Coefficients by Individual Area 212 Table 59 Multiple Regression Analysis - Table of Pearson Correlation Coefficients by Individual Area 213 Table 60 Multiple Regression Analysis - Table of Pearson Correlation Coefficients by Individual Area 214 Table 61 Multiple Regression Analysis - Table of Pearson Correlation Coefficients by Individual Area 215 Table 62 Multiple Regression Analysis - Table of Pearson Correlation Coefficients by Individual Area 216 Table 63 Multiple Regression Analysis - Table of Pearson Correlation Coefficients by Individual Area 217 Table 64 Multiple Regression Analysis - Table of Pearson Correlation Coefficients by Individual Area 218 Table 65 Multiple Regression Analysis F with I to R; F with B, D; B with I to R; and D with I to R for Total Data Matrix 221 CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES (Contd. ) PAGE Table 66 Multiple Regression Analysis -E with I to R for the Total Data Matrix 225 Table 67 The Prediction of Frequency Use, Duration of Stay and Expenditure at Large Foodstores in the Survey Area using the Developed Trip Generation Model 244 Table 68 The Prediction of Personal Accessibility from the Independent Variables using the Means Data Matrix 252 CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES PAGE Figure 1 British Hypermarket and Superstore Openings 1966-1981 3 Figure 2 Growth in Number and Sales Space of French Hypermarkets 4 Figure 3 Number of Parking Spaces as a Function of Sales Area in France 23 Figure 4 Summary of Factors Influencing Activity Scheduling 37 Figure 5 The Accessibility Window of a Household to allow a Private Car, Bulk-Purchasing Trip to a Foodstore to take place 60 Figure 6 Model of the Household Choice Process with respect to Bulk-Purchase Shopping by Private Car 69 7 Figure Theoretical Study Framework showing groups of Households and Store Locations 72 Figure 8 Conceptual Framework for Model Development Based on Sub-Area Models or Aggregated Data Model 73 Figure 9 Dependent Variable Structure 75 Figure 10 Structure of Dependent and Independent Variables 77 Figure 11 Two Models of the Conceptual Structure of Independent and Dependent Variables 81 Figure 12 Model of Conceptual Framework showing sub-models based on Factor Variables and Individual Variables 83 Figure 13 The Study Area 96 Figure 14 The Questionnaire Design 100 Figure 15 Map of Area Locations 103 Figure 16 Profiles of the Dependent Variables with respect to their Means 105 Figure 17(a) Profiles of the Independent Variables I to 0 with respect to their Means 106 Figure 17(b) Profiles of Independent Variables P to R with respect to their Means 107 Figure 18 Profiles of Dependent Variables with respect to Standard Deviation 111 Figure 19(a) Profiles of Independent Variables I to 0 with respect to Standard Deviation 112 Figure 19(b) Profiles of Independent Variables P to R with respect to Standard Deviation 113 Figure 20 Scattergram of the Store Expenditure/Week (D) v. Total Expenditure (E) - Area 1 (Moredun) 136 Figure 21 Total Expenditure/Week (E) v. No. of Half Days Employed (Q) - Area 1 (Moredun) 137 Figure 22 Expenditure/Week at Store (D) v. No. in House- Hold (M) - Area 1 (Moredun) 138 Figure 23 Location of Large Foodstores in Edinburgh District 164 CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES (Contd. ) PAGE Figure 24 Freezer Ownership, Income, Number of Licenses, Number in the Household and Mean Age of the Household with respect to Expenditure at Large Foodstores 195 1 CHAPTER ONE THE GROWTH OF LARGE FOODSTORES IN BRITAIN 1.1 Introduction This thesis sets out to provide a model for the calculation of private car trips to large foodstores based on local area household characteristics. It recognises the weakness in predicting private-car trips to large stores using trip-rates obtained from surveys of stores in other areas. The trip generation model that is sought must be easily applied and must use readily accessible data. It is proposed therefore that a relationship be sought between private- car trips to the stores and the household characteristics, obtainable from census data, of the local catchment area. The model thus obtained would be used for strategic planning control. The initial chapters set out the scale of growth of large foodstores in Britain and the consequent problems they create for the road network and the local environment. The conceptual framework and research objectives are then discussed and related to the research tasks and the methods of analysis required to achieve the research objectives.