Universidade de Lisboa Faculdade de Direito Faculdade de Letras Instituto de Ciências Sociais Explaining Party System Institutionalization in Africa: From a Broad Comparison to a Focus on Mozambique and Zambia Edalina Rodrigues Sanches Tese orientada pela Doutora Marina Costa Lobo do Instituto de Ciências Sociais da Universidade de Lisboa e coorientada pelo Doutor Gerhard Seibert da Universidade da Integração Internacional da Lusofonia Afro-Brasileira. Ano| 2014 i ii Explaining Party System Institutionalization in Africa CONTENT LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................................................ iv LIST OF FIGURES ....................................................................................................................................... v LIST OF ACRONYMS ................................................................................................................................. vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .......................................................................................................................... xii ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................................. xiv SUMMARY .............................................................................................................................................. xv INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................................... 1 From research problem to research questions .................................................................................... 2 Framing the analysis of party system institutionalization ................................................................... 3 What is new about this research? ....................................................................................................... 6 Outline of the thesis ............................................................................................................................. 7 CHAPTER I – RESEARCH ON INSTITUTIONALIZATION .............................................................................. 9 1.1 The concept of institutionalization: Huntington’s classical definition ........................................... 9 1.2 The first studies on institutionalization .......................................................................................12 1.2.1 Conceptual dilemmas of institutionalization ........................................................................ 17 1.3 The institutionalization of party systems .....................................................................................20 1.3.1 Party system institutionalization as a one-dimensional concept ......................................... 21 1.3.2 Party system Institutionalization as a multidimensional concept ........................................ 23 1.4 What do we know about the sources and the mechanisms of party system institutionalization in Africa? ............................................................................................................................................31 1.5 Balance .........................................................................................................................................33 CHAPTER II – METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................... 37 2.1 Research questions ......................................................................................................................37 2.2 The theoretical approach: Institutionalism and African Politics ..................................................42 2.3 Hypotheses and mechanisms of party system institutionalization .............................................44 2.4 Methods and research design ......................................................................................................48 2.4.1 Mixed Methods: Definition and relevance ........................................................................... 48 2.4.2 Applying an Explanatory Sequential Design: Embedded methods and techniques ............. 50 2.5 Selection of cases .........................................................................................................................53 2.5.1 Case selection for the quantitative strand ........................................................................... 54 2.5.2 Case selection for the qualitative strand .............................................................................. 62 2.6 Data collection and sources .........................................................................................................66 CHAPTER III – MEASURING PARTY SYSTEM INSTITUTIONALIZATION IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA .......... 71 i Explaining Party System Institutionalization in Africa 3.1 Party system institutionalization: The framework for analysis ....................................................71 3.1.1 Theoretical and methodological foundations ...................................................................... 72 3.2 Party system institutionalization: From dimensions to indicators ..............................................75 3.2.1 Stable patterns of interparty competition ........................................................................... 75 3.2.2 Stable roots in society ........................................................................................................... 78 3.2.3 Organizational continuity ..................................................................................................... 79 3.2.4 Building a composite index of party system institutionalization .......................................... 80 3.3 Party system institutionalization in Sub-Saharan Africa: Main Results .......................................81 3.3.1 Electoral volatility ................................................................................................................. 81 3.3.2 Legislative seats volatility ..................................................................................................... 83 3.3.3 Percentage of votes won by new parties .............................................................................. 85 3.3.4 Alternation in government ................................................................................................... 87 3.3.5 Share of seats for the most voted party ............................................................................... 88 3.3.6 Share of seats for parties founded until 1960, 1970 and 1980 ............................................ 89 3.3.7 Share of seats for independent candidates .......................................................................... 92 3.3.8 Mergers ................................................................................................................................ 93 3.3.9 Splits ..................................................................................................................................... 95 3.4 Varieties of party system institutionalization: Countries, time and quality ................................96 3.5 Balance: comparing measures of party system institutionalization ..........................................101 CHAPTER IV – SOURCES OF PARTY SYSTEM INSTITUTIONALIZATION ................................................. 105 4.1 Explaining party system institutionalization ..............................................................................105 4.1.1 Social structure ................................................................................................................... 106 4.1.2 Institutionalization over time ............................................................................................. 109 4.1.3 Institutional design ............................................................................................................. 110 4.1.4 Party and party system characteristics .............................................................................. 114 4.1.5 Economic performance ....................................................................................................... 115 4.1.6 Electoral participation ........................................................................................................ 116 4.2 Independent and control variables: Measurement and data ....................................................117 4.3 Independent and control variables: Descriptive analysis ..........................................................123 4.4 Sources of party system institutionalization: Analysis and results ............................................133 4.5 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................136 CHAPTER V – THE FRAMEWORK FOR THE ANALYSIS OF PARTY SYSTEM INSTITUTIONALIZATION IN MOZAMBIQUE AND ZAMBIA: MECHANISMS AND HISTORICAL CONTEXT ......................................... 139 5.1 Mechanisms of party system institutionalization ......................................................................139 5.1.1 Environmental and relational mechanisms in review ........................................................ 143 ii Explaining Party System Institutionalization in Africa 5.2 Mozambique and Zambia in the broad historical context .........................................................149